This episode of Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing, hosted by Tyler Crowe with contributors Travis Hoyam and Matt Frankel, delves into recent earnings reports and industry trends across the space and apparel sectors.
**Rocket Lab Earnings: Waiting on Neutron**
The podcast begins with Rocket Lab's Q2 earnings, which saw the stock dip slightly. While revenue was stronger than expected and backlog doubled year-over-year, the company reported a wider loss, concerning investors about its path to profitability. The discussion highlighted how the earnings call transcript focused heavily on future projects: "Neutron" (the next-generation rocket) appeared 61 times, and "Iridium" (a recent acquisition) 30 times, compared to just 17 mentions of "Electron" (their current operational rocket that generates revenue). This indicates investors are betting on future innovation. Despite a phenomenal stock run (+1,100% in three years), Rocket Lab's $50 billion market cap dwarfs its $2.36 billion backlog, signaling high expectations. The Iridium acquisition, a cash-generative business, is seen as a strategic move to help stem cash burn and shore up the balance sheet.
**Broader Space Industry: Valuations and Opportunities**
Zooming out to the wider space industry, the hosts discussed investment opportunities amidst trends like the "Golden Dome" (a major defense space investment priority), a new International Space Station, and growing commercial interest. Travis Hoyam expressed skepticism about current valuations, noting the need for companies like AST Space Mobile to prove their business models and generate real revenue and margins. Matt Frankel, however, pointed to the "Golden Dome" as the most investable near-term opportunity, citing potential spending ranging from $175 billion to $1.2 trillion with real contracts already being awarded.
**On Holdings Earnings: Profitability Over Growth**
Next, the conversation shifted to On Holdings, the athletic apparel and footwear company, whose shares dropped about 18% after its earnings report. This decline was primarily attributed to weaker-than-expected guidance for the rest of the year. While On reported a 13.5% revenue increase (21.6% in constant currency, adjusting for the weak dollar against the Swiss Franc), they lowered their full-year growth outlook to the low 20% range.
On's strategy, according to Travis, prioritizes pricing power and high profitability, aiming for a 65% gross profit margin, even if it means sacrificing some growth. This contrasts with competitors who might discount products to boost volume. Matt noted a geographical disparity, with Asia Pacific sales up 55% versus 13% in the Americas, suggesting a slowdown in the US consumer market.
The hosts debated whether On could reach the scale of Nike or Adidas by heavily relying on its direct-to-consumer (DTC) model, which currently drives higher margins. While DTC offers greater control over pricing and brand image, Matt suggested it might have limits at scale, eventually forcing On to balance between becoming a profitable "value stock" with 10-15% annual growth or pursuing higher growth (30%+) by leaning more into lower-margin wholesale channels. Effective inventory management will be crucial for On's strategy.
**e-VTOL Industry: Diversification Amidst Challenges**
The podcast concluded by discussing the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) industry, particularly the rivalry between Archer Aviation and Joby Aviation. Both companies recently announced significant acquisitions, leading to speculation about their long-term strategies.
* **Archer's Deal:** Archer acquired three Boeing subsidiaries, including an air traffic management software company, a profitable defense drone maker with over $200 million in annual revenue, and an autonomous eVTOL design. This all-stock deal gives Boeing a nearly 20% stake in Archer. The market reacted positively (+20%), seeing it as a strategic move to add revenue to a pre-revenue company and boost its defense sector credibility. Notably, Boeing retained the autonomous software from the acquired eVTOL design.
* **Joby's Deal:** Joby acquired defense contractor Renaissance Sciences for $500 million (mostly cash). While it adds about $100 million in revenue and moves Joby into the defense space, the market reacted more "ho-hum" (-3%). Travis questioned Joby's focus, as it had been seen as the more focused air-taxi company aiming for commercial passengers by 2026/2027. He suggested that spending significant cash on a defense contractor might divert resources from scaling its core air taxi operations.
Tyler Crowe posited that these diversification moves might signal an admission that eVTOL deployment is harder and will take longer than initially expected. Matt Frankel viewed it more as "hedging" against potential delays (e.g., 1-3 years longer), while still affirming they are on track for current milestones. The hosts concluded that while entering the defense business could provide steady, cash-generative revenue, it also adds complexity, especially for companies yet to fully establish their core offerings. The long-term success will depend on how they balance these diverse ventures.