This video provides a detailed preview of SpaceX's first-ever quarterly earnings call as a publicly traded company, set for **Tuesday, this week, after market close**.
**Key Announcements & Information:**
* **Earnings Call Logistics:** Investors can register to attend the live webcast via the SpaceX Investor Relations page. The host will provide a full recap after the call.
* **Investor Warnings:** The range of possible outcomes from the earnings call and report is "vast," with potential "tens of billions of dollars" in revenue changes (up or down) from undisclosed AI compute deals.
* **Stock Performance:** SpaceX stock is down approximately **30% from its $150 market debut** and about **50% from its all-time high**.
* **What Bloomberg's Lauren Grush is looking for:** Updates on the ambitious IPO roadmap, including AI data centers in space, V3 satellites, Starship progress, and significant CapEx in AI infrastructure.
* **Host's Expectations & Predictions:**
* **Orbital AI Data Centers:** Unlikely to have significant new material updates beyond known ambitions, as large-scale deployment depends on Starship.
* **Starship Progress:** Transparent through over a dozen visible test flights, progressing "extremely well" (e.g., recent gentle splashdown). Its regular flight is crucial for Starlink bandwidth and data centers.
* **Earth-Based AI Compute Business (Primary Focus):**
* Currently generates "not far off **$30 billion a year**" in annualized revenue (with customers like Google, Anthropic, and Reflection AI).
* SpaceX has a massive cost and speed advantage (estimated **6-8 times faster**) in scaling AI compute.
* **Key data to watch for:** Current online AI compute capacity (host estimates **1.5 gigawatts**, generating **$25-28 billion/year**), committed spending on additional AI compute, and the pipeline for new deals.
* Predicted to "blow just about everyone away" in revenue growth for many quarters, potentially making other SpaceX businesses look small in comparison for short-term revenue.
* Elon Musk's X comment suggested SpaceX "could add about **a hundred billion dollars of annual revenue**" in 12-24 months from scaling AI compute.
* **Starlink User Growth:** Expected to add around **3 million (+/- 0.5 million) users** in the quarter, with steady growth until Starship's regular operation enables a "massive explosion" of bandwidth. Increasing mix towards cell service.
* **AI Models (Grok, Grok Build, Giga Grok):** Grok Build is highlighted as "the goat" (leader in cost for intelligence). This area has potential for multi-trillion dollar opportunity but is highly competitive and volatile; "anything could happen."
* **Elon Musk's Presence:** The host confirms Elon Musk will be on the call, and predicts he will emphasize investors are underappreciating the AI compute business.
* **Capital & Profitability:** Starlink is a significant driver of profitability. The IPO raised **$85 billion**, providing ample capital for now, though AI/rocket development is capital-intensive, and future funding needs might arise.
* **Merger Speculation (Tesla/SpaceX/XAI):** Lauren Grush noted Gwynn Shotwell didn't downplay a potential merger, and the XAI acquisition with SpaceX suggests nothing is off the table. However, the host explicitly states that **Elon Musk debunked a Wall Street Journal report** about Tesla potentially selling its China business ahead of a SpaceX merger as "absurdly fake news."
* **Patreon Announcement:** A new 20-year Tesla and SpaceX valuation model is launching soon on Patreon. Prices for new memberships will "increase significantly" when it goes live, urging sign-ups now to lock in current rates.
* **Sponsor:** AG1 by Athletic Greens is mentioned as a daily health protocol.