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Motley Fool Money - Motley Fool Money: 07.17.2009

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由克里斯·希尔主持,并由分析师塞思·杰森、詹姆斯·厄尔利和香农·齐默林共同参与的“Motley Fool Money”播客,涵盖了一系列财经新闻,从大银行利润到企业环保举措,再到科技行业的困境。 该播客节目以“大银行的大新闻”开场,美国银行、花旗集团、高盛和摩根大通都报告了可观的季度利润。特别是高盛,在作为上市公司首次亏损仅六个月后,就公布了创纪录的利润,促使詹姆斯·厄尔利指出这是“惊人的逆转”。他将此部分归因于所获得的TARP资金,尽管受到了一些批评,但它确实达到了帮助银行运营和盈利的目的。厄尔利阐明了投资银行业务(表现良好)和商业银行业务(举步维艰)之间的区别,并强调了一些提振银行数据的“一次性资产出售”。香农·齐默林指出,花旗集团43亿美元的利润主要归功于出售其在史密斯巴尼的多数股权,暗示若非如此,则可能出现亏损。塞思·杰森补充说,消费信贷问题“每况愈下”,银行报告的健康状况往往是由于潜在的有毒资产而造成的“障眼法”。分析师们普遍认为,这些大银行的健康状况不一定反映了更广泛的经济或整个银行业的情况,投资银行则受益于竞争减少和市场反弹。 接下来,播客讨论了沃尔玛一项根据环境影响对其产品进行标识的新举措。该公司计划向其超过10万家供应商提出15个问题,涵盖能源、气候、材料效率、自然资源、人员和社区等方面。香农·齐默林对此表示怀疑,称其为“公关噱头”,并指出其在财经媒体中获得的“溢美之词”。她认为,尽管这项举措用意良好,但它主要涉及信息披露而非取消资格,最终,沃尔玛那些对价格敏感的顾客很可能会将成本置于环保标签之上。塞思·杰森表示赞同,称没有供应商会“不及格”,只是披露信息。 推特公司的云计算问题成为了焦点,此前一名高管的谷歌文档账户被黑客入侵,导致310份据称是内部文件泄露给了TechCrunch。泄露的文件揭示了推特对Facebook和谷歌等竞争对手的担忧,以及其雄心勃勃的“达到10亿用户并实现变现”的目标。塞思·杰森对这个故事津津乐道,认为这是给整个云计算“欢乐大游行”开的一个“窟窿”。他认为所谓的“黑客入侵”可能只是简单的密码猜测(据报道密码是首字母大写的“Happiness”),并警告了在易于访问的云应用程序中存储敏感信息的危险。杰森嘲笑了推特10亿用户的目标及其“内裤侏儒商业模式”(先收集内裤,然后盈利),认为这不切实际,特别是考虑到其目前缺乏可观的收入。 在他们的“引人注目的头条”环节中,香农·齐默林强调了医疗改革的进展,指出众议院一个委员会通过了包含强大公共医保选项的立法,她认为这对于激励私营行业控制行政成本至关重要。詹姆斯·厄尔利提到了加州的财政困境,由于预算僵局,加州不得不发行借据来支付员工工资和履行义务,这引发了人们对潜在全国性影响的担忧。塞思·杰森一如既往地,将焦点放在了苹果公司上。他幽默地指出,iTunes的一项新更新“禁用了那些虚假冒充iPod的设备,包括Palm Pre”,这无异于承认苹果不愿竞争,并将其与微软过去的垄断问题进行了类比。 关于股票建议,香农·齐默林推荐了**IBM (IBM)**,指出其强劲的第二季度收益超出预期,并上调了2009年业绩指引。她赞扬了其成本控制和基本面实力,称其为一家“坚不可摧”的蓝筹股公司,为经济复苏做好了充分准备。詹姆斯·厄尔利建议关注**加拿大丰业银行 (BNS)**,他认为由于更严格的贷款标准,加拿大银行更安全,并且由于投资者错误地将它们与美国银行业问题联系起来,因此被低估了。然而,塞思·杰森对**联邦快递 (FDX)** 表示谨慎。尽管联邦快递常被视为一个被低估的投资机会,但他指出其自2005/2006年以来现金流持续减少,运营现金流完全被资本支出耗尽,建议投资者调查其看似便宜的估值背后的原因。詹姆斯·厄尔利补充说,**UPS**(一项来自Income Investor Service的推荐)主要是通过承担大量债务来提高股本回报率,这掩盖了其“疲软的盈利能力”。 播客最后,香农·齐默林发布了对前一周节目的更正,澄清了她将“有时帽子就是帽子”这句短语(与弗兰纳里·奥康纳的《智血》有关)错误地归因于弗洛伊德,并感谢一位听众指出了这个错误。

The "Motley Fool Money" podcast, hosted by Chris Hill with analysts Seth Jayson, James Early, and Shannon Zimmering, covered a range of financial news, from big bank profits to corporate environmental initiatives and tech industry woes. The episode began with the "big news from the big banks," as Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and J.P. Morgan all reported substantial quarterly profits. Goldman Sachs, in particular, posted record profits just six months after its first loss as a public company, prompting James Early to note the "amazing turnaround." He attributed this partly to the TARP money received, which, while criticized by some, served its purpose in allowing banks to operate and profit. Early clarified the distinction between investment banking (which performed well) and commercial banking (which struggled), and highlighted one-time asset sales that boosted some banks' figures. Shannon Zimmering pointed out that Citigroup's $4.3 billion profit was largely thanks to selling a majority stake in Smith Barney, implying a loss otherwise. Seth Jayson added that consumer credit issues were "going down the tubes" and that banks' reported health was often "smoke and mirrors" due to underlying toxic assets. The analysts largely agreed that the health of these major banks didn't necessarily reflect the broader economy or general banking sector, with investment banks benefiting from reduced competition and a market rally. Next, Walmart's new initiative to label its products by environmental impact was discussed. The company plans to survey its 100,000+ suppliers on 15 questions covering energy, climate, material efficiency, natural resources, people, and community. Shannon Zimmering was skeptical, labeling it a "PR stunt" and noting the "love letters" it received in financial media. She argued that while well-intentioned, the initiative primarily involves disclosure rather than disqualification, and ultimately, Walmart's price-sensitive customers would likely prioritize cost over environmental labels. Seth Jayson concurred, stating no supplier would "fail" the survey, just disclose. Twitter's cloud computing troubles took center stage after an executive's Google Docs account was hacked, leaking 310 alleged internal documents to TechCrunch. The leaks revealed Twitter's concerns about competitors like Facebook and Google, and an ambitious goal to reach 1 billion users and monetize them. Seth Jayson relished the story, seeing it as a "hole in the whole cloud computing cavalcade of joyfulness." He dismissed the "hack" as likely a simple password guess (reportedly "happiness" with a capitalized P) and warned about the dangers of storing sensitive information in easily accessible cloud applications. Jayson ridiculed Twitter's 1-billion-user goal and its "underpants gnome business model" (collect underpants, then profit) as unrealistic, especially given its current lack of significant revenue. In their "headlines caught attention" segment, Shannon Zimmering highlighted progress in healthcare reform, noting that a House committee had passed legislation including a strong public option, which she believes is crucial for incentivizing private industry to control administrative costs. James Early brought up California's financial woes, issuing IOUs to pay employees and obligations due to a budget stalemate, raising concerns about potential national implications. Seth Jayson, true to form, focused on Apple. He humorously noted a new iTunes update that "disables devices falsely pretending to be iPods, including the Palm Pre," an admission that Apple doesn't want to compete, drawing parallels to Microsoft's past antitrust issues. For stock ideas, Shannon Zimmering recommended **IBM (IBM)**, noting its strong second-quarter earnings that beat estimates and an upgraded 2009 guidance. She praised its cost controls and fundamental strength, calling it an "unassailable" blue-chip operator well-positioned for an economic recovery. James Early suggested **Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)**, arguing that Canadian banks are safer due to tighter lending standards and are undervalued because investors mistakenly associate them with U.S. banking problems. Seth Jayson, however, expressed caution about **FedEx (FDX)**. While often seen as a beaten-down opportunity, he pointed out its dwindling cash flow since 2005/2006, with operating cash flow entirely consumed by capital spending, advising investors to investigate the reasons behind its seemingly cheap valuation. James Early added that **UPS** (an Income Investor Service recommendation) had increased its return on equity primarily by taking on significant debt, masking "saggy profitability." The podcast concluded with Shannon Zimmering issuing a correction from the previous week's episode, clarifying her misattribution of the phrase "sometimes a hat is just a hat" (related to Flannery O'Connor's "Wise Blood") to Freud, thanking a listener for pointing out the error.