On a recent episode of Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing, hosts Tyler Crowe, Lou Whiteman, and Matt Frankel delved into the depths of earnings season, dissecting divergent performances from tech giants and offering insights into other noteworthy companies.
The episode kicked off with the stark contrast between **Microsoft** and **Meta**'s earnings reports. Meta shares were down 8.8%, while Microsoft surged 15%. The hosts highlighted that Microsoft is the first major AI CapEx spender to see such a positive market reaction, largely due to its demonstrated return on investment (ROI). Microsoft's Azure revenue accelerated to 43% growth, and notably, the company even *trimmed* its full-year CapEx projection (due to an accounting change related to the useful life of AI data centers), signaling efficient spending.
Conversely, Meta missed profitability estimates, maintained flat Q3 revenue guidance, and did not reduce its CapEx forecast. Investors continue to question the purpose of its significant spending, lacking a clear answer on when this investment will translate into future sales growth. Microsoft's success, according to the hosts, lies in its diversified business, strong software results, and clear picture of its AI expansion, providing a compelling narrative for its future.
The discussion then pivoted to whether Microsoft, trading at about 25 times trailing earnings, is now the "best bargain" among the Magnificent Seven. Lou Whiteman affirmed this, stating that Microsoft and Alphabet are the only two Mag Seven companies that currently interest him due to their diversified ways to win. Matt Frankel agreed, calling Microsoft the "most bulletproof business" in the Mag Seven. He cited its enterprise software moat, lack of dependency on "moonshot" projects like robo-taxis, and a rare combination of relatively low valuation and accelerating growth in key areas.
The "Hidden Gems" segment then featured a lightning round of earnings reports. The term "hidden gems" was broadened to include companies with overlooked value or potential, even well-known ones.
1. **MasterCard (up 2.5%):** Not a hidden company, but seen as a "legacy financial" often overlooked. It's investing heavily in stablecoins and owning financial infrastructure rails. The company posted a solid beat on top and bottom lines, with operating margins expanding by 150 basis points and payment network revenue growing 10% year-over-year. Cross-border activity remained surprisingly strong.
2. **MCOR (up 19%):** An electrical mechanical contractor, strongly associated with AI infrastructure and data center build-out. The stock rebounded after topping expectations and raising full-year guidance, suggesting that previous concerns about the "picks and shovels AI trade" being under pressure were overblown.
3. **Garmin (up 17% yesterday):** While down 1.5% on the day of recording, its previous day's surge warranted mention. Garmin has successfully transformed from a car navigation company to a leader in fitness smartwatches, offering purpose-built products for various outdoor hobbies. It reported a blowout quarter with 11% revenue growth, 29% earnings growth, and a significant raise in full-year guidance, despite anticipating higher memory costs.
4. **L3 Harris (down 10%):** A defense contractor, expected to benefit from global munitions demand. Despite beating expectations, raising guidance, and reporting a record $42 billion backlog, the stock fell. The primary reason was the delay of its planned missile solutions unit spinoff until 2027 due to "choppy market conditions," which disappointed investors who saw value in the spinoff. Margin pressure in its space segment also contributed.
When asked to pick the most attractive among these four, Matt chose Garmin for its "impressive execution," while Lou opted for MasterCard, citing diversification.
The mailbag question from Ben in Sacramento asked about the strategy of owning two companies that operate in the same space and may rival each other (e.g., Caterpillar and Deere, Home Depot and Lowe's). Should one "call your shot" on a single outperformer, or is it better to own both, potentially mitigating upside but also downside?
Lou explained that he doesn't have a strict rule. He uses index funds for diversification and buys individual stocks based on "best ideas." If a trend benefits multiple companies, he's comfortable owning competitors. Matt emphasized the core question: whether one is more confident in "picking a winner" or "investing in a trend." He noted that a basket approach, like their past "war on cash" basket (Visa, MasterCard, PayPal), can mitigate risk if one company underperforms (e.g., PayPal's struggles vs. Visa/MasterCard's strength). He suggested a third option: owning several companies in a theme but being "overweight" on the highest conviction investments. Tyler concluded by referencing Warren Buffett's "diversification is ignorance insurance," meaning protection against unforeseen events, rather than just intellectual humility. He argued that owning a few companies within a sector can mitigate the risk of being wrong about a single pick, ensuring long-term success across a trend.