7月25日，《市场周刊》的发言人预测金融市场将出现剧烈动荡，理由是主要股指已停滞不前、失去动能，并在公众对杠杆ETF和期权的高度投机中显现出疲软迹象。他指出了三大迫在眉睫的风险：人工智能（AI）交易达到顶峰、伊朗战争升级以及美联储（Fed）可能加息（最早可能在本周）。 首先，**人工智能交易**似乎正在触顶。尽管AI投资曾推动市场上涨，但近期事件表明情况正在发生变化。半导体行业指标SOX指数已呈V形顶部走势，台积电（TSMC）和阿斯麦（ASML）等主要参与者，尽管公布了强劲的财报和乐观的AI前景，但其股价仍遭遇抛售，这引发了一个问题：“利好消息是否已尽出？”谷歌最近的财报尤其说明问题；市场惩罚了谷歌，因为它在AI相关的资本支出上略有增加，市场要求的是实实在在的成果，而不仅仅是增加开支。谷歌还报告称，由于AI投资导致自由现金流为负，甚至债务市场也变得更加怀疑，要求超大规模AI融资支付更高的风险溢价。这表明市场普遍对AI热潮持谨慎态度。从根本上讲，发言人指出，中国出现了具有竞争力的开源（open-weight）AI模型，这可能会减少对RAM等组件的需求。有趣的是，英伟达（NVIDIA）首席执行官黄仁勋公开支持开源模型，这可能会挑战Anthropic和ChatGPT所寻求的封闭模型双头垄断，并通过降低AI成本而惠及全球经济。 其次，发言人警告称**伊朗战争即将升级**。证据包括中东地区军事资产激增、美伊之间夜间冲突不断，以及胡塞武装（Houthis）介入冲突，威胁红海石油运输。胡塞武装的介入，特别是针对沙特油轮的袭击，预计将比3月份更进一步限制全球石油供应，使布伦特原油价格逼近100美元。发言人将总统近期的一些行动——一次指责外国干预可能导致中期选举失利的演讲，以及一条警告俄罗斯和中国不要介入伊朗战争的推文——解读为重大升级的准备。核心冲突在于，伊朗在受到核大国攻击后，坚持出于国家安全目的控制霍尔木兹海峡。尽管发言人认为，忍受力较低的美国最终会像3月份那样“认怂”（taco，即退缩），但在那之前，预计会有一场猛烈的轰炸行动，可能目标是伊朗的核设施。这种短期升级可能在任何最终和平解决方案达成之前，导致股市大幅下挫。 最后，**美联储很可能加息**，最早可能在本周。市场目前预计年底前将有两次加息，而不断上涨的油价正在推高全球债券收益率。美联储认为通胀是由AI建设、关税（最近在“更坚实的法律基础”上重新确立）和能源价格驱动的，而这些因素似乎都不是暂时的。鉴于地缘政治发展，发言人认为美联储可能在本周意外加息。这将表明这是一个“不同的美联储”，愿意出人意料，并将这一政治敏感的决定与即将到来的中期选举拉开距离。这样的加息，虽然可能导致股市动荡，但也可能导致市场下跌，从而提前消化未来的加息预期，使其成为一个战略性举措。尽管近期表现不佳，发言人仍认为长期债券具有吸引力，原因是在股市可能下行的情况下，其收益率较高；不过他也承认，债券市场波动性（而非崩溃）可能不利于股市。 总而言之，发言人建议对股市保持极度谨慎，暗示可能出现回调，在这些合力逆风的推动下，股指可能跌至200日移动平均线（约7,000点）附近。

On July 25th, the speaker of "Markets Weekly" forecasts significant turbulence in financial markets, citing that major indexes have stalled, lost momentum, and are showing signs of weakness amidst high public speculation in leveraged ETFs and options. He identifies three major imminent risks: a peak in the AI trade, escalation of the Iran war, and a potential Fed rate hike, possibly this week. First, the **AI trade** appears to be peaking. While AI investments have powered markets, recent events suggest a shift. The SOX index, a semiconductor gauge, has V-topped, and major players like TSMC and ASML saw their stocks sell off despite strong earnings and optimistic AI outlooks, prompting the question: "Is the news as good as it gets?" Google's recent earnings report was particularly telling; the market punished them for a marginal increase in capital expenditures related to AI, demanding tangible results rather than just increased spending. Google also reported negative free cash flow due to AI investments, and even the debt markets are becoming more skeptical, demanding higher risk premiums for hyperscaler AI financing. This suggests a broad market caution towards the AI boom. Fundamentally, the speaker notes the rise of competitive open-weight AI models from China, which could reduce demand for components like RAM. Interestingly, NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, has publicly supported open-weight models, potentially challenging the closed-model duopoly sought by Anthropic and ChatGPT, and benefiting the global economy by reducing AI costs. Second, the speaker warns of **imminent escalation in the Iran war**. Evidence includes a surge of military assets in the Middle East, nightly skirmishes between the U.S. and Iran, and the Houthis' entry into the conflict, threatening Red Sea oil transit. This Houthi involvement, particularly targeting Saudi oil tankers, is expected to constrain global oil supply further than in March, pushing Brent crude close to $100. The speaker interprets recent presidential actions – a speech blaming foreign interference for potential midterm losses and a tweet warning Russia and China to stay out of the Iran war – as preparations for major escalation. The core conflict revolves around Iran's insistence on controlling the Strait of Hormuz for national security after being attacked by nuclear powers. While the speaker believes the U.S., with its lower pain tolerance, will eventually "taco" (back down) as it did in March, an intense bombing campaign, potentially targeting Iran's nuclear facilities, is expected in the interim. This near-term escalation could lead to significant equity market downturns before any eventual peace settlement. Lastly, the **Federal Reserve is likely to hike interest rates**, possibly as early as this week. The market is currently pricing in two hikes by year-end, and rising oil prices are pushing global bond yields higher. The Fed views inflation as driven by AI buildout, tariffs (recently re-established on "sturdier legal ground"), and energy prices, none of which appear transitory. Given the geopolitical developments, the speaker believes the Fed may surprise markets with a hike this week. This would demonstrate a "different Fed" willing to be unpredictable and distance the politically sensitive decision from the upcoming midterms. Such a hike, while potentially causing equity market turbulence, could also lead to a market downturn that prices out future hikes, making it a strategic move. Despite recent poor performance, the speaker finds long bonds attractive due to high yields amidst potential equity downside, though he acknowledges bond market volatility (not implosion) could be unhealthy for equities. In conclusion, the speaker advises extreme caution in equity markets, suggesting a potential correction, possibly down to the 200-day moving average around 7,000, driven by these converging headwinds.