演讲者首先指出，摩根士丹利预计SpaceX到2040年将创造 **33亿美元（3,300,000,000美元）** 的收入。 为了说明这个数字的意义，演讲者咨询了一个名为“GigaBrain AI”的人工智能，具体来说是“Grok”，来预测当今按年收入计算的前25家最大公司的营收。这项预测假设这些公司从现在到2040年之间的营收将以 **20%的复合年增长率（CAGR）** 增长。 根据Grok的分析，在假设20%复合年增长率的情况下： * **亚马逊和沃尔玛** 到2040年预计年收入将达到 **超过9万亿美元**。 * **苹果和Alphabet（谷歌的母公司）** 到2040年预计年收入将达到 **超过5万亿美元**。 演讲者随后澄清道，如果SpaceX到2040年能够实现 **3.3万亿美元** 的年收入（这比最初提到的33亿美元有了显著的飞跃），它将位列这个假设榜单上的第 **21大公司**。 演讲者总结道，在这种更宏大的背景下，SpaceX到2040年实现 **3.3万亿美元** 年收入的预测听起来不再“疯狂”，并将其比作“薛定谔的营收预测”。

The speaker begins by stating that Morgan Stanley expects SpaceX to generate **$3.3 billion ($3,300,000,000)** in revenue by 2040. To provide context for this figure, the speaker consulted a "GigaBrain AI," specifically "Grok," to project the revenues of the top 25 largest companies by annual revenue today. This projection assumed a **20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR)** for their revenues between now and 2040. According to Grok's analysis, assuming this 20% CAGR: * **Amazon and Walmart** are projected to reach **over $9 trillion** in annual revenues by 2040. * **Apple and Alphabet (Google's parent company)** are projected to reach **over $5 trillion** in annual revenues by 2040. The speaker then clarifies that if SpaceX were to achieve **$3.3 trillion** (a significant jump from the initially stated $3.3 billion) in annual revenue in 2040, it would rank as the **21st largest company** on this hypothetical list. The speaker concludes that, in this larger context, a **$3.3 trillion** annual revenue estimate for SpaceX by 2040 no longer sounds "crazy," likening it to "Schrodinger's revenue estimate."