Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX to achieve **$3.3 trillion in annual revenue by 2040**.
To provide context for this figure, the speaker refers to an analysis from "GigaBrain AI" (or "Grok"), which assumes a **20% compound annual growth rate** for the top 25 largest companies by annual revenue today, extended out to 2040.
Under this hypothetical scenario:
* **Amazon** and **Walmart** are projected to exceed **$9 trillion** in annual revenue by 2040.
* **Apple** and **Alphabet** (Google's parent company) are expected to surpass **$5 trillion** in annual revenue each by 2040.
If SpaceX were to reach Morgan Stanley's estimated **$3.3 trillion** revenue by 2040, it would place the company at **number 21** on this hypothetical list of top global companies. This comparison leads the speaker to conclude that while $3.3 trillion is an immense number, it doesn't sound as "crazy" when viewed against the potential scale of other major corporations, describing it as "Schrodinger's revenue estimate" – both gigantic and simultaneously not that much.
The speaker further speculates on a potential valuation for SpaceX, applying an arbitrary revenue multiple of **20x** to the $3.3 trillion revenue, which would result in a staggering **$66 trillion** valuation.
The core question posed is whether Morgan Stanley's estimate will ultimately prove to be "far too bullish and aggressive," "pretty close," or "far too bearish," terming it "the Decatrillion dollar question."
The transcription concludes by indicating an upcoming segment on "Doonberg" titled "The Bull Case for SpaceX."