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Electrified - Mutliple Tesla Timelines Just Changed ⚡️

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以下是“Electrified”节目中讨论的新闻摘要: **特斯拉AI5芯片更新** * **澄清误解:** 来自EVwire(令人乏善可陈的)的消息称,三星已为特斯拉的AI5芯片“流片”,这意味着三星已完成设计,准备制造。这与埃隆·马斯克四月份的声明不同,后者指的是特斯拉内部设计团队为其变体芯片进行了流片。 * **来源与过程:** 该消息来自三星工程师詹姆斯·金(James Kim),他在领英(帖子已删除)上发布称,AI5已完成流片,并计划在泰勒晶圆厂(Taylor Fab)使用三星最新的2纳米工艺进行制造。 * **重要性:** 这表明特斯拉和三星都对三星的2纳米工艺充满信心,预示着良率的提升和大规模生产的可靠性,尽管这种新型先进节点本身存在固有的风险。 * **产品集成时间表:** 詹姆斯·金已删除的帖子中提到AI5“很快集成到特斯拉最新产品中”。然而,主持人澄清,这不太可能在近期用于特斯拉车辆。 * **AI4 Plus(AI4.1):** 特斯拉计划了一个中间芯片步骤,即AI4的升级版,名为AI4 Plus。 * **细节:** 它将使用新一代RAM,每个系统级芯片(SOC)的内存从16GB增加到32GB(双SOC总共64GB)。 * **性能:** 计算和内存带宽预计提升10%。 * **生产:** 埃隆·马斯克在四月份表示,AI4 Plus很可能在2027年中期投入生产,由三星负责修改。 * **AI5车辆集成:** 主持人预测AI5最早要到2028年才能出现在特斯拉车辆中,这推迟了此前的预期。埃隆本人去年11月表示,AI5直到2027年中期才会有足够的产量,这一时间表现在几乎肯定被推迟了。 * **首次使用:** AI5芯片更有可能首先用于擎天柱机器人(Optimus)或特斯拉的超级计算机集群,特斯拉会在数十万块AI5板可用后才部署到车辆。 * **双重供应:** 三星流片意味着特斯拉通过三星和台积电在尖端节点上为AI5拥有了可靠的双重供应路径。 * **AI 4.5并非真实:** 主持人再次强调,“AI 4.5”(一个三颗SOC系统)是错误的命名,并非计划中的产品;它实际上就是AI4 Plus。 * **当前计划:** 特斯拉目前的计划是不将AI5整合到车辆中;AI4(或AI4 Plus)被认为足以实现比人类驾驶员更安全的无监督FSD。 **FSD(完全自动驾驶)更新** * **FSD 14.3.5推出:** 目前正在向抢先体验组推出。 * **停车问题:** 一些用户仍存在问题,例如在街道上进行垂直停车或糟糕的停车操作。有猜测认为,大的停车改进可能要等到FSD v15。 * **抖动/急刹:** 用户报告称这些问题在14.3.5中大部分消失,这令人鼓舞。 * **手动转向灯干预:** 仍无法用于转弯,仅用于变道。 * **摄像头预览:** 新功能允许用户随时打开摄像头预览,即使车辆不在停车挡,通过“控制 > 服务 > 摄像头预览”即可。 * **提醒减少:** 一些用户(Devin Olson, DJ)报告称14.3.5中的驾驶员关注提醒更为宽松,但一旦触发,“容忍度则大幅降低”。 **FSD“电车难题”与狗狗事件** * **细节:** 一段视频显示一辆FSD 14.2.2.5的特斯拉撞上了一只在路上的狗。车辆当时以53英里/小时的速度行驶,狗是可见的,但车辆有一段时间没有刹车,并且由于有对向车流而无法避让。 * **结果:** 视频发布者证实,狗狗在兽医治疗后无恙。 * **主持人看法:** 主持人认为FSD的表现优于许多人类驾驶员,并且可能通过减轻撞击挽救了狗狗的生命。 **机器人出租车基础设施与部署** * **清洁机器人:** 一项在德克萨斯州获得的、用于Giga Texas附近某地(该项目已于三月关闭)的“清洁机器人”许可证,表明特斯拉正在为机器人出租车服务建设基础设施,包括自动化清洁。 * **等待时间:** 零星报告显示,达拉斯(最长7分钟)和迈阿密(4分钟)的等待时间有所改善。 * **主持人评估:** 这些改善的等待时间很可能是由于有限的宣传导致需求较低,而非服务车辆的大幅增加。迈阿密可能只有2-5辆车,达拉斯5-10辆。 * **赛博出租车积累:** 据报道,在休斯顿发现了100辆赛博出租车(Cybercab),尽管它们尚未贴上官方徽章。 * **迈阿密测试:** 一段视频显示,一辆赛博出租车正在迈阿密与一名安全员一起进行测试,证实开发工作仍在进行中。 **FSD在欧洲的批准** * **德国传闻:** 来自德国特斯拉展厅的报告称,FSD“很快,很快就会到来”。 * **准备工作:** 据报道,服务中心的特斯拉员工正在为客户试驾做准备。 * **软件下载:** FSD版本正在下载到一些德国车辆中,但由于尚未获得德国联邦汽车运输管理局(KBA)的批准,车主暂时无法使用。 * **重要性:** 如果德国能够独立批准特斯拉的有人监督FSD,这可能预示着欧盟更广泛的批准将是一个积极的信号。 **加州电动汽车激励措施与加文·纽森的评论** * **新立法:** 州长加文·纽森签署立法,为新电动汽车提供3,500美元的折扣,二手车提供1,750美元的折扣。 * **附加条件:** 车辆的最终建议零售价(MSRP)上限为50,000美元。 * **加州总部豁免:** 总部设在加州的公司(如Rivian和Lucid)不受50,000美元上限的限制。 * **特斯拉的劣势:** 由于特斯拉已将其总部迁至奥斯汀,50,000美元的上限适用于特斯拉车辆,从而限制了其获得资格。 * **纽森对埃隆的评论:** 纽森公开批评埃隆·马斯克,称其为“最大的失望之一”,指责他“背弃”加州,并通过“放缓其自身的创新步伐”来“将电动汽车领域拱手让给中国”。 * **主持人反驳:** 主持人强烈反对纽森的观点,指出埃隆是根据市场需求/政策做出反应的,特斯拉并没有将电动汽车领域拱手让给中国;相反,传统汽车制造商才是这样做的。纽森的言论被视为在为歧视性上限寻找借口。 **擎天柱人形机器人** * **阿肖克(Ashok)的乐观:** 阿肖克认为擎天柱不会令人失望。 * **斯科特·沃尔特(Scott Walter)的悲观观点:** 人形机器人专家斯科特·沃尔特(在该领域备受尊敬)提出了非常批判性的看法: * “原型易做,量产难”的说法不适用于人形机器人;“人形机器人原型难做”。 * 没有人,包括特斯拉,拥有一个值得大规模推广的工作原型。 * 现有原型(包括擎天柱)的能力、坚固性和安全性都还不够。 * 特斯拉正在“规模化一个不断变化的目标”,在明确技术熟练之前就专注于制造能力。 * V3版本今年不会亮相,原因在于其当前能力未能达到演示标准,而非出于盗版担忧。 * 百万台以上的擎天柱将是V5或更高版本。 * **主持人立场:** 主持人分享斯科特的观点以求平衡,承认存在一些分歧,但强调特斯拉实际的原型能力对公众来说是未知的。 **特斯拉半挂卡车合作** * **纸业运输(PTI):** 一家领先的运输服务提供商宣布与特斯拉合作,评估特斯拉长续航半挂卡车。 * **运营:** 这项合作将用于芝加哥的专线运营,可预测的路线和稳定的里程提供了理想的环境。 * **潜在订单:** PTI拥有一支约800辆卡车的车队;如果试点进展顺利,特斯拉可能会获得40-60辆的订单。 * **试点成功:** 主持人指出,迄今为止,大多数半挂卡车试点都进展顺利。 **中国电动汽车市场表现** * **国内销量骤降:** 迈克尔·邓恩(Michael Dunn,邓恩洞察)报告称,今年上半年中国国内汽车市场销量同比骤降20%。 * **竞争对手下滑:** 比亚迪销量下降46%,大众下降29%,丰田下降17%,吉利下降25%。 * **特斯拉的相对强势:** 特斯拉在中国市场的零售销量(1-6月)同比下降9.3%,在这个严重萎缩的市场中表现“相当不错”。 * **市场趋势:** 在前20个品牌中,只有3个实现了正增长,只有2个(包括特斯拉)的降幅低于10%。这解释了为什么中国电动汽车制造商正在大量涌入欧洲市场。 **优步在新泽西州的游说** * **拟议法案:** 一名优步的游说者在新泽西州单独推动一项立法,要求任何提供无人驾驶叫车服务的平台,其85%的叫车服务必须由人类司机提供。 * **影响:** 该条款将有效阻止Waymo、Zoox和特斯拉在该州运营自己的叫车应用。 * **优步的矛盾信号:** 主持人指出,优步在自动驾驶领域投入巨大,但这次游说表明他们内部意识到竞争对手(或许包括他们自己的自动驾驶努力)在缺乏人工干预的情况下,尚未准备好大规模推广。 **股市表现(当日收盘)** * **特斯拉(TSLA):** $394.76(下跌3.19%) * **SpaceX:** $139.14(下跌4.24%) * **纳斯达克100指数(NDX):** 下跌1.88%

Here's a summary of the news discussed in the Electrified episode: **Tesla AI5 Chip Update** * **Confusion Clarified:** News broke from EVwire (Yawn) that Samsung has "taped out" Tesla's AI5 chip, meaning Samsung has finished its design ready for manufacturing. This differs from Elon Musk's April announcement, which referred to Tesla's internal design team taping out their variant. * **Source & Process:** The news came from James Kim, a Samsung engineer, who posted on LinkedIn (post since deleted) that AI5 reached tape-out and is scheduled for manufacturing at the Taylor Fab using Samsung's latest 2nm process. * **Significance:** This indicates high confidence from both Tesla and Samsung in Samsung's 2nm process, suggesting improving yields and reliable production at scale, despite the inherent risk of a new, advanced node. * **Product Integration Timeline:** James Kim's deleted post mentioned integration into "Tesla's newest products soon." However, the host clarifies this is unlikely for Tesla vehicles anytime soon. * **AI4 Plus (AI4.1):** Tesla has an intermediate chip step planned, an upgrade to AI4, called AI4 Plus. * **Details:** It will use newer generation RAM, increasing from 16GB to 32GB per SOC (total 64GB due to dual SOC). * **Performance:** Expected 10% increase in compute and memory bandwidth. * **Production:** Elon Musk stated in April that AI4 Plus would likely go into production mid-2027, with Samsung doing the modifications. * **AI5 Vehicle Integration:** The host predicts AI5 won't be in Tesla vehicles until 2028 at the very earliest, pushing back previous expectations. Elon himself stated last November that AI5 wouldn't be available in sufficient volume until mid-2027, a timeline now almost certainly pushed back. * **First Use:** AI5 chips are more likely to be used in Optimus or Tesla's supercomputer clusters first, with Tesla waiting until hundreds of thousands of completed AI5 boards are available before vehicle deployment. * **Dual Sourcing:** The Samsung tape-out signifies Tesla having a credible dual-source path for AI5 through both Samsung and TSMC on leading-edge nodes. * **AI 4.5 is Not Real:** The host re-emphasizes that "AI 4.5" (a three SOC system) was a mislabeling and is not a planned product; it's the AI4 Plus. * **Current Plan:** Tesla's current plan is not to incorporate AI5 into vehicles; AI4 (or AI4 Plus) is believed to be enough for unsupervised FSD far safer than a human. **FSD (Full Self-Driving) Updates** * **FSD 14.3.5 Rollout:** Currently rolling out to the early access group. * **Parking Issues:** Still a problem for some users, with examples of perpendicular parking on a street or bad park jobs. Speculation is that a major parking improvement might not come until FSD v15. * **Jitters/Brake Stabbing:** Users report these issues are largely gone in 14.3.5, which is encouraging. * **Manual Blinker Override:** Still not working for turns, only for lane changes. * **Camera Preview:** New feature allows users to open camera preview at any time, even when not in park, via Controls > Service > Camera Preview. * **Nag Reduction:** Some users (Devin Olson, DJ) report the nag is more relaxed in 14.3.5, though the "fuse is much shorter" when a nag is triggered. **FSD "Trolley Problem" Dog Incident** * **Details:** A video shows an FSD 14.2.2.5 Tesla hitting a dog on the road. The car was traveling at 53 mph, the dog was visible, but the car did not brake for some time, and couldn't swerve due to oncoming traffic. * **Outcome:** The original poster confirmed the dog was okay after a vet visit. * **Host's Take:** The host believes FSD did better than many humans would have, and likely saved the dog's life by reducing the impact. **Robotaxi Infrastructure & Deployment** * **Cleaning Robot:** A Texas permit for a new "cleaning robot" at a location near Giga Texas (project closed in March) suggests Tesla is building out infrastructure for robotaxi services, including automated cleaning. * **Wait Times:** Anecdotal reports suggest improved wait times in Dallas (longest 7 minutes) and Miami (4 minutes). * **Host's Assessment:** These improved wait times are likely due to low demand from limited awareness, not a massive increase in service vehicles. Miami might have 2-5 cars, Dallas 5-10. * **Cybercab Accumulation:** 100 Cybercabs were reportedly seen in Houston, though without the official badging yet. * **Miami Testing:** A video shows a Cybercab testing in Miami with a safety operator, confirming development is ongoing. **FSD Approval in Europe** * **Germany Rumors:** Reports from a German Tesla showroom claim FSD is "coming very, very soon." * **Preparations:** Tesla employees at service centers are reportedly preparing for customer test drives. * **Software Downloads:** FSD versions are being downloaded on some German cars, though owners cannot use them yet due to lack of KBA approval. * **Significance:** If Germany approves Tesla's supervised FSD independently, it could be a positive sign for broader EU approval. **California EV Incentives & Gavin Newsom's Comments** * **New Legislation:** Governor Gavin Newsom signed legislation offering $3,500 off new EVs and $1,750 off used models. * **The Catch:** There's a $50,000 cap on the final MSRP of the vehicle. * **California HQ Exemption:** Companies headquartered in California (like Rivian and Lucid) are exempt from the $50,000 cap. * **Tesla's Disadvantage:** Because Tesla moved its headquarters to Austin, the $50,000 cap *does* apply to Tesla vehicles, limiting eligibility. * **Newsom's Remarks on Elon:** Newsom publicly criticized Elon Musk, calling him "one of the great disappointments," accusing him of "turning his back" on California, and "seeding the EV space to China" by "pumping the brakes on his own innovation." * **Host's Rebuttal:** The host vehemently disagrees with Newsom, stating Elon responds to market demand/policy, and Tesla is not seeding the EV race to China; rather, legacy automakers are. Newsom's comments are seen as justifying the discriminatory cap. **Optimus Humanoid Robot** * **Ashok's Optimism:** Ashok believes Optimus will not disappoint. * **Scott Walter's Bearish View:** Humanoid expert Scott Walter (highly respected in the space) offered a very critical perspective: * "Prototypes are easy, production is hard" doesn't apply to humanoids; "humanoid prototypes are hard." * No one, including Tesla, has a working prototype *worth scaling*. * Current prototypes (including Optimus) are not sufficiently capable, robust, or safe. * Tesla is "scaling a moving target," focusing on manufacturing capacity before clear technological adroitness. * V3 will not be revealed this year due to current capabilities not meeting demonstration standards, not piracy concerns. * Million-plus Optimi will be V5 or higher. * **Host's Stance:** The host shares Scott's viewpoint for balance, acknowledging some disagreement, but highlighting that Tesla's actual prototype capabilities are unknown to the public. **Tesla Semi Partnership** * **Paper Transport (PTI):** A leading transportation provider announced a partnership with Tesla to evaluate the Tesla Semi Long Range. * **Operations:** This will be for dedicated operations in Chicago, where predictable routes and consistent mileage provide an ideal environment. * **Potential Order:** PTI has a fleet of ~800 trucks; if the pilot goes well, Tesla could see an order of 40-60 units. * **Pilot Success:** The host notes that most Semi pilots have gone well so far. **China EV Market Performance** * **Domestic Sales Collapse:** Michael Dunn (Dunn Insights) reported that the domestic Chinese auto market saw sales collapse by 20% year-over-year in the first half of this year. * **Competitor Declines:** BYD sales were down 46%, VW down 29%, Toyota down 17%, and Geely down 25%. * **Tesla's Relative Strength:** Tesla's retail sales in China were down 9.3% year-over-year (Jan-June), which is "quite good" in this severely contracting market. * **Market Trend:** Only 3 of the top 20 brands were positive, and only 2 (including Tesla) were down less than 10%. This explains why Chinese EV makers are flooding European markets. **Uber Lobbying in New Jersey** * **Proposed Law:** An Uber lobbyist is separately pushing for legislation in New Jersey that would require any platform offering driverless ride-hailing services to have human drivers serve 85% of its rides. * **Impact:** This language would effectively prevent Waymo, Zoox, and Tesla from operating their own ride-hailing apps in the state. * **Uber's Conflicting Signals:** The host points out Uber's significant investments in autonomy, yet this lobbying effort suggests an internal realization that competitors (and perhaps their own autonomy efforts) are not ready to scale without human intervention. **Stock Market Performance (Day's Close)** * **TSLA:** $394.76 (down 3.19%) * **SpaceX:** $139.14 (down 4.24%) * **NDX (Nasdaq 100):** Down 1.88%