这期录制于7月4日的《市场周刊》节目，以对美国250周年生日的节日问候开场，并提及了激动人心的世界杯足球赛。主持人指出，世界杯正在向全球观众积极展示美国城市。 讨论随后转向两个主要话题：当前市场趋势以及利亚夸特·艾哈迈德（Liaquat Ahamed）新书《1873》的评论。 关于市场，主持人观察到“动量交易崩盘”，尤其影响了人工智能（AI）股票和半导体。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）作为这些趋势的先行指标，此前曾翻倍，但现在似乎正在失去动能，可能正在“V型见顶”，这种情绪也反映在美光（Micron）等美国AI股票上。这发生在“AI交易叙事出现裂缝”的背景下。例如，据报道Meta正在出售过剩的计算能力，这与此前算力稀缺的说法相悖；同时，更多的美国公司正在考虑使用更便宜的开源中国模型。Palantir的亚历克斯·卡列夫（Alex Kareff）也倡导使用开放权重模型，这可能是因为Palantir在数据主权和隐私问题上失去了一些合同。主持人将此比作亚马逊的做法：在看到小型企业在其平台上成功后，便开发自有品牌产品。这暗示封闭式AI模型也可能利用用户数据与其客户竞争。这意味着未来AI模型层将是开放的，价值将转移到应用层面。著名投资者杰里米·格雷厄姆（Jeremy Grantham）因其泡沫警告被提及，他指出泡沫通常以高估值股票停滞不前而告终，而大盘指数在经历更大规模的修正之前会先上涨，这在互联网泡沫时代可见一斑。纳斯达克指数近期未能创下新高，可能预示着这种模式的开始。 在数据方面，美联储主席鲍威尔近期关于AI的言论被解读为略显鸽派。他认为AI初期是通胀性的（由于基础设施建设），但最终会是通缩性的（通过生产力提高）。非农就业报告显示新增就业岗位少于预期，但失业率意外下降（归因于劳动参与率降低）导致了复杂的解读。主持人驳斥了对劳动参与率下降的“悲观主义”解读，认为世界杯、兼职工作或数据错误等因素可能在起作用，这与他看待期权交易叙事的方式类似。 节目的后半部分聚焦于利亚夸特·艾哈迈德的新书《1873》。主持人是艾哈迈德另一本书《金融之王》（Lords of Finance）的粉丝，他强调了历史背景对市场判断的重要性。这本书详细描述了1873年前的全球投机热潮，其导火索是法国向普鲁士支付的战争赔款以及资本外逃。这种黄金和白银的涌入（当时各国实行硬金属本位制）直接增加了奥匈帝国和英国等接收国的货币供应并降低了利率。在美国，政府大力补贴的铁路建设热潮也吸引了大量投机活动。普遍存在的腐败现象司空见惯，包括贿赂官员以及贵族为可疑项目背书。主持人强调了查尔斯·狄更斯在1842年的观察，他描述了美国人对投机和赌博的偏爱，认为这深深植根于这个国家的“堕落世代”（D-Gen）文化中。 1873年始于维也纳的经济萧条，导致了长达数十年的严重通货紧缩（物价下跌30-40%），这与现代危机相比是一个独特的结局。这主要归因于两个因素：一是当时没有以物价稳定为使命的中央银行；二是全球意外地从金银复本位制（gold and silver）转向了纯金本位制。白银的非货币化大幅减少了货币供应，加剧了通货紧缩螺旋。这种货币政策的转变是一项政治决策，主要由强大的游说团体推动，尽管面对通货紧缩时期背负固定债务的农民的强烈反对（例如威廉·詹宁斯·布莱恩的“黄金十字架”演说）。此外，机械化和铁路（降低了运输成本）等持续的技术进步也导致了物价下跌。通货紧缩最终因新金矿的发现而结束。主持人最后通过与当今的对比进行总结，指出虽然我们富有弹性的货币体系和政策工具可能会阻止如此深度的通货紧缩，但其他历史回响，例如对“廉价进口商品”征收关税，仍然具有现实意义。

This "Markets Weekly" episode, recorded on July 4th, begins with a festive greeting for America's 250th birthday and a nod to the exciting FIFA tournament, which the host notes is showcasing American cities positively to a global audience. The discussion then shifts to two main topics: current market trends and a review of Liaquat Ahamed's new book, "1873." Regarding the markets, the host observes a "meltdown in momentum trades," particularly affecting AI stocks and semiconductors. The Korean KOSPI index, a bellwether for these trends, had doubled but now appears to be losing momentum, potentially "V-topping," a sentiment echoing in US AI stocks like Micron. This comes amidst "cracks in the AI trade narrative." For example, Meta is reportedly selling excess compute capacity, contradicting the scarcity narrative, and more US companies are considering cheaper, open-source Chinese models. Palantir's Alex Kareff also advocates for open-weight models, possibly due to Palantir losing contracts over data sovereignty and privacy concerns. The host draws an analogy to Amazon's practice of developing generic products after seeing small businesses succeed on its platform, suggesting closed-ended AI models could similarly leverage user data to compete with their clients. This implies a future where the AI model layer is open, with value shifting to the application level. Jeremy Grantham, a well-known investor, is cited for his bubble warnings, noting that bubbles often end with high-flyers stalling while broader indexes initially rally before a larger correction, as seen in the dot-com era. The NASDAQ's recent inability to make new highs could signal the start of such a pattern. On the data front, Fed Chair Powell's recent remarks on AI were interpreted as slightly dovish. He suggested AI is initially inflationary (due to infrastructure build-out) but ultimately disinflationary (through productivity gains). The non-farm payrolls report showed fewer jobs created than expected, but a surprise drop in the unemployment rate (attributed to a lower labor participation rate) led to a mixed interpretation. The host dismisses "doomer" interpretations of the participation rate drop, suggesting factors like the World Cup, side hustles, or data errors could be at play, similar to how he views narratives around options trading. The second half of the episode focuses on Liaquat Ahamed's new book, "1873." The host, a fan of Ahamed's "Lords of Finance," emphasizes the importance of historical context for market judgment. The book details a global speculative boom leading up to 1873, fueled by France's war indemnity payments to Prussia and capital flight. This influx of gold and silver (as countries were on a hard metal standard) directly increased money supply and lowered interest rates in receiving nations like Austria-Hungary and the UK. In the US, a railroad construction boom, heavily subsidized by the government, also attracted significant speculation. Widespread corruption, including bribery of officials and aristocracy lending credibility to dubious ventures, was commonplace. The host highlights Charles Dickens' observation from 1842, describing Americans' penchant for speculation and gambling, seeing it as deeply ingrained in the nation's "D-Gen" culture. The bust in 1873, starting in Vienna, led to a prolonged period of severe deflation (30-40% over decades), a unique outcome compared to modern crises. This was primarily due to two factors: the absence of central banks with price stability mandates and an accidental global shift from bimetallic (gold and silver) to a pure gold standard. The demonetization of silver drastically reduced the money supply, exacerbating the deflationary spiral. This monetary policy shift was a political decision, largely driven by powerful lobbyists, despite strong opposition (e.g., William Jennings Bryan's "cross of gold" speech) from farmers who suffered under fixed debt burdens during deflation. Additionally, ongoing technological advancements like mechanization and railroads (reducing shipping costs) contributed to falling prices. The deflation eventually ended due to new gold discoveries. The host concludes by drawing parallels to today, noting that while our elastic monetary system and policy apparatus would likely prevent such deep deflation, other historical echoes, like the use of tariffs against "cheap imports," are still relevant.