The speaker posits that if Starship becomes operational, orbital AR compute will drastically undercut Earth-based compute in terms of cost. This shift is predicted to meet an "essentially infinite" demand for compute, which will be significantly cheaper in space than on Earth.
This scenario, according to the speaker, will inherently favor SpaceX and their specific compute stack and decision-making processes, putting them at an advantage over existing hyperscalers and other competitors. Consequently, the cost of an output token generated terrestrially, particularly by hyperscalers, is expected to become "economically lopsided" when compared to SpaceX's orbital offerings.
However, a critical nuance is introduced: once SpaceX achieves scale with its orbital compute, any compute infrastructure that remains on the ground will become "incredibly, incredibly valuable," likened to "diamonds." This value, the speaker emphasizes, is contingent on size. Small-scale terrestrial compute, such as a "10 kilowatt diamond," is dismissed as negligible ("a little pebble of shit") and commercially irrelevant. Instead, only terrestrial compute facilities operating at "hundreds of megawatts to gigawatts" will be truly valuable, comparable to "hope diamonds."