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Electrified - Why Tesla's Robotaxi Rollout Stalled / Many Are Wrong About Elon's Voting Percentage ⚡️

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以下是 Electrified 播客的新闻摘要: 1. **特斯拉机器人出租车部署更新:** * 第三方追踪器显示,在过去7天内,近80%的特斯拉机器人出租车行程为无人监管,而在过去30天内,26辆活跃车辆中有21辆是无人监管的。 * 自5月9日左右,即特斯拉宣布生产Cybercab后不久,奥斯汀、达拉斯和休斯顿的车队增长已停滞。 * 在达拉斯发现了13辆Cybercab,据称处于“休眠”状态。 * 休斯顿一个机器人出租车车库里的Model Y车辆开启了危险警示灯,推测它们正在被改装(可能用于安装后视清洗摄像头)或进行软件更新。其中一些是首发版Model Y。 * 其他车辆(Model 3、Cybertruck、非机器人出租车)已从停车场移走,只剩下Cybercab和Model Y。有员工被看到正在普通Model Y上工作。 * 主持人推测,此次暂停是由于特斯拉正全力以赴地专注于让Cybercab为部署做好准备,并通过FSD验证,以及在新的城市推出服务。 * 预计在几周内,奥斯汀将有30辆Cybercab,达拉斯/休斯顿各有10-15辆,但大规模部署要等到V15版本发布。 * 特斯拉需要在未来33天内在五个新城市推出服务,以符合其既定的时间表。 2. **埃隆·马斯克在特斯拉的所有权与投票控制分析:** * **实益所有权(SEC报告):** 特斯拉的13G/A表格显示,埃隆拥有20.3%的实益所有权(7.17亿股 / 35亿已发行股份),其中包括2018年奖励的3.03亿份期权和其信托中的4.14亿股。 * **当前实际投票权:** 埃隆目前拥有11%的投票控制权(其信托中的4.13亿股 / 37.5亿实际已发行股份),因为期权尚未行使。 * **2018年奖励期权:** 埃隆2018年奖励的3.03亿份期权必须在2024年5月21日至8月15日之间行使;如果他不行使,特斯拉将代为行使。 * **期权行使后的投票权:** 一旦行使,埃隆的实际投票权将增至17.6%(7.17亿股 / 40.59亿已发行股份)。这些股份将受到限制,持有期为五年,至2033年,税务事件很可能推迟到2028年,届时这些股份将归属。 * **2025年奖励股份:** 2025年奖励的4.23亿股已计入已发行股份总数,但尚未赚取;埃隆对其尚未拥有投票控制权。在批次赚取之前,它们通过不可撤销的委托书按比例投票。 * **未来投票权:** 如果埃隆赚取了所有2025年奖励批次(特斯拉市值达到约8.5万亿美元并实现运营里程碑),他的投票控制权可能达到28.1%(11.4亿股投票权 / 40.59亿已发行股份)。埃隆有明确的途径实现他期望的25%以上的投票控制权。 3. **SpaceX-特斯拉合并猜测:** * SpaceX的早期投资者彼得·戴曼迪斯表示,SpaceX和特斯拉在IPO后的合并“不可避免”,这源于埃隆希望整合其所有公司控制权/投票权的目标。 * 这样的合并可能会让埃隆在特斯拉获得他目前在SpaceX拥有的“超级投票权”(IPO前拥有85.1%的控制权)。 4. **特斯拉Megapack 3在比利时部署:** * SPY比利时公司将在一个前发电厂旧址安装180个Megapack 3单元,建成欧洲最大的电池储能园区之一。 * 安装工作将于2024年11月开始,预计在2027年底前完成测试和调试。 * 该项目价值超过1.16亿美元,将拥有数百兆瓦时(MWh)的储能容量,标志着Megapack 3在欧洲首批大规模部署项目之一。 5. **ACEA欧洲汽车销售数据(1月至4月):** * 欧盟整体汽车注册量增长4.2%。 * 纯电动汽车(BEV)占据了欧盟市场19.7%的份额(相比去年同期的15.3%有所上升)。 * 混合动力汽车注册量为38.2%,仍然是首选。 * 主要的BEV市场:德国(同比增长41.3%)、法国(同比增长48.2%)和比利时(超过53,400辆BEV)。 * 特斯拉销量同比增长45.8%(89,429辆),市场份额从1.4%增至1.9%。 * 中国汽车制造商奇瑞汽车(同比增长338%)和比亚迪(同比增长144%,销量超过101,000辆)在这些市场的销量超过了特斯拉,凸显了它们的快速增长和市场渗透力。 6. **擎天柱工厂建设更新:** * 在年产1000万台擎天柱的工厂建设工地,首个钢结构已建成。 * 土地平整的第二阶段正在进行中。 7. **特斯拉FSD更新:** * 一段视频展示了“令人印象深刻”的有人监管FSD在复杂场景下完美无瑕的表现。 * 然而,FSD 14.3.3也表现出糟糕的停车行为,需要驾驶员干预才能避免撞到购物车。 * 14.3版本的重要之处在于特斯拉重写了编译器和运行时,为未来的版本奠定了新的基础。 8. **SpaceX星舰FAA调查:** * 美国联邦航空管理局(FAA)已要求SpaceX调查最近星舰助推器在试飞中发生的故障,并暂停后续发射。 * 此次事故涉及超重型助推器在级间分离后返回墨西哥湾。这被描述为对新设计进行的例行调查。 9. **美联航星链整合:** * 美联航(United Airlines)首席执行官证实,计划在明年之前为其整个机队配备星链(Starlink),认为这将是该航空公司的“最大差异化优势”。 10. **富时罗素指数规则变更:** * 富时罗素指数(FTSE Russell)宣布了针对IPO的“快速进入增强”新规则,这在很大程度上受到SpaceX的影响。这些规则将允许像SpaceX这样的公司在IPO后仅五天内被纳入指数,可能导致机构投资者更即时地买入。 11. **Rivian R2发布:** * Rivian宣布其R2车型将于6月9日发布,届时将开始邀请客户订购、首次交付客户车辆并提供试驾。R2系列的成功对Rivian至关重要。 12. **埃隆·马斯克谈SpaceX人工智能:** * 埃隆·马斯克发推称,他于凌晨2点45分离开了SpaceX人工智能办公室,并指出工作仍在进行中,暗示他们可能“接近训练方面的一项重大突破”。 13. **特斯拉股票表现:** * 特斯拉股价收于440.36美元,上涨1.56%,而纳斯达克100指数(NDX)下跌0.09%。成交量比平均水平低25%。

Here's a summary of the news from the Electrified podcast: 1. **Tesla Robo-taxi Rollout Update:** * A third-party tracker indicates nearly 80% of Tesla robo-taxi rides in the past 7 days were unsupervised, and 21 of 26 active vehicles over 30 days were unsupervised. * Fleet growth in Austin, Dallas, and Houston has stalled since around May 9th, shortly after Tesla announced Cybercab production. * 13 Cybercabs were spotted in Dallas, described as "asleep." * Model Ys at a Houston robo-taxi depot have hazards on, with speculation they are being retrofitted (perhaps for a rear washer camera) or undergoing software updates. Some are launch edition Model Ys. * Other vehicles (Model 3s, Cybertrucks, non-robo taxis) were removed from the lot, leaving only Cybercabs and Model Ys. Employees were seen working on the normal Model Ys. * The host speculates this pause is due to Tesla's "all-hands-on-deck" focus on getting Cybercabs ready for deployment and validated for FSD, and on launching in new cities. * Expectations are for 30 Cybercabs in Austin and 10-15 each in Dallas/Houston within weeks, but not large-scale deployment until V15. * Tesla needs to launch in five new cities in the next 33 days to meet its stated timelines. 2. **Elon Musk's Tesla Ownership & Voting Control Analysis:** * **Beneficial Ownership (SEC Reporting):** Tesla's 13G/A form shows Elon with 20.3% beneficial ownership (717 million shares / 3.5 billion outstanding), which includes 303 million options from the 2018 award and 414 million shares in his trust. * **Current Real-World Voting Power:** Elon currently has 11% voting control (413 million shares in his trust / 3.75 billion actual outstanding shares), as the options are not yet exercised. * **2018 Award Options:** Elon's 303 million options from the 2018 award must be exercised between May 21st and August 15th, 2024; Tesla will exercise them if he doesn't. * **Voting Power After Options Exercise:** Once exercised, Elon's real-world voting power will increase to 17.6% (717 million shares / 4.059 billion outstanding). These shares will be restricted with a five-year holding period through 2033, and tax events are likely pushed to 2028 when they vest. * **2025 Award Shares:** The 423 million shares from the 2025 award are already included in the outstanding share count but are unearned; Elon has no voting control over them yet. They are voted proportionately by an irrevocable proxy until tranches are earned. * **Future Voting Power:** If Elon earns all 2025 award tranches (Tesla reaches ~$8.5 trillion market cap and operational milestones), his voting control could reach 28.1% (1.14 billion voting shares / 4.059 billion outstanding). Elon has a clear path to achieve his desired 25%+ voting control. 3. **SpaceX-Tesla Merger Speculation:** * Peter Diamandis, an early SpaceX investor, stated a post-IPO merger between SpaceX and Tesla is "inevitable," driven by Elon's goal to consolidate control/voting power across his companies. * Such a merger could grant Elon the "super voting rights" at Tesla that he currently holds at SpaceX (85.1% control pre-IPO). 4. **Tesla Megapack 3 Deployment in Belgium:** * SPY Belgium will install 180 Megapack 3 units at a former power plant site, creating one of Europe's largest battery parks. * Installation begins in November 2024, with testing and commissioning expected by the end of 2027. * The project is valued at over $116 million and will have several hundred MWh storage capacity, marking one of the first large-scale Megapack 3 deployments in Europe. 5. **ACEA European Car Sales Data (January-April):** * Overall EU car registrations were up 4.2%. * Full Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 19.7% of the EU market (up from 15.3% year-over-year). * Hybrid registrations were 38.2%, remaining the preferred choice. * Top BEV markets: Germany (+41.3% YoY), France (+48.2% YoY), and Belgium (over 53,400 BEVs). * Tesla sales were up 45.8% YoY (89,429 units), increasing its market share from 1.4% to 1.9%. * Chinese automakers Sherry Auto (+338% YoY) and BYD (+144% YoY, over 101,000 units) outsold Tesla in these markets, highlighting their rapid growth and market penetration. 6. **Optimus Factory Construction Update:** * The first steel structure has been erected at the Optimus 10 million units/year factory construction site. * The second phase of land reclamation is underway. 7. **Tesla FSD Updates:** * A clip showcased "impressive" supervised FSD performance handling a complex scene flawlessly. * However, FSD 14.3.3 also demonstrated poor parking behavior, requiring driver intervention to avoid a shopping cart stall. * The significant aspect of 14.3 is Tesla rewriting the compiler and runtime, setting a new foundation for future releases. 8. **SpaceX Starship FAA Investigation:** * The FAA has ordered SpaceX to investigate the recent Starship booster failure during its test flight, pausing further launches. * The mishap involved the Super Heavy booster returning to the Gulf of Mexico after stage separation. This is described as a routine investigation for a new design. 9. **United Airlines Starlink Integration:** * The CEO of United Airlines confirmed plans to equip its entire fleet with Starlink by next year, viewing it as a "biggest differentiator" for the airline. 10. **FTSE Russell Indices Rule Change:** * New "fast entry enhancements" have been announced for IPOs, largely influenced by SpaceX. These rules will allow companies like SpaceX to join the index just five days after their IPO, potentially leading to more immediate institutional buying. 11. **Rivian R2 Launch:** * Rivian announced its R2 model will launch on June 9th, with order invites, first customer deliveries, and demo drives commencing. The success of the R2 line is considered critical for Rivian. 12. **Elon Musk on SpaceX AI:** * Elon Musk tweeted about leaving the SpaceX AI office at 2:45 AM, noting ongoing work and suggesting they might be "close to a significant breakthrough in training." 13. **Tesla Stock Performance:** * Tesla stock closed at $440.36, up 1.56%, while the NDX was down 0.09%. Volume was 25% below average.