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Electrified - I Spoke to Regulators: Tesla's Unsupervised Timeline ⚡️

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以下是视频转录的详细摘要中文翻译,涵盖了讨论的每个新闻项目: **主持人更新与概况:** * 迪伦·卢米斯感谢新赞助人帕特里克·C。 * 他计划加快速度,因为接下来有采访。 * 他最近录制了一段与马克(一位专注于特斯拉/Cybertruck的社区成员)长达一小时的采访,链接将在下方提供。 * 另一段采访将于本周晚些时候发布,很可能在周末。 **特斯拉自动驾驶与FSD:** * **加州自动驾驶汽车(AV)许可证状况:** * 特斯拉目前在加州仅持有交通特许许可证(TCP),将其叫车服务归类为司机/豪华轿车服务,而非自动驾驶服务。 * 加州公用事业委员会(CPUC)证实,他们尚未收到特斯拉提交的任何自动驾驶汽车许可证申请。 * **原因:** 特斯拉正积极就CPUC关于自动驾驶乘用车运输服务的新规进行公开评论。发言人认为特斯拉正试图在新规正式颁布前对其施加影响,然后再申请官方许可证。 * **影响:** 特斯拉可以继续运营其叫车服务,收集数据并建设基础设施。 * **时间线:** 这意味着特斯拉在加州推出真正的无人驾驶出租车服务至少需要几个月,可能6-9个月甚至更长时间。为满足加州5万英里要求的无人监督测试*可能*会在今年晚些时候进行,但付费客户服务不太可能在2027年之前推出。 * **德州自动驾驶出租车扩张:** * 从上周日开始,特斯拉在奥斯汀的自动驾驶出租车首次在夜间进行无人监督运营,此前仅运营到下午。这具有重要意义,因为许多向NHTSA报告的事故都发生在夜间。 * 官方网站列出的服务时间是中部时间早上6点到凌晨2点,但值得注意的是达拉斯和休斯顿的服务可能更早结束。 * **自动驾驶出租车追踪器数据显示:** 休斯顿有6辆无人监督车辆,达拉斯5辆,奥斯汀24辆,总计35辆。 * **预测:** 特斯拉有望在未来2-3周内使达拉斯和休斯顿的无人监督车辆达到10-15辆。 * 增长速度被认为是缓慢的,但符合预期。 * **有人监督的FSD统计数据:** * 特斯拉在有人监督的FSD模式下,行驶里程已正式突破**100亿英里**大关,相当于350万次美国海岸到海岸的驾驶。 * 这一里程碑*预计不会*成为实现无人监督自动驾驶规模化部署的“一键开关时刻”。 * **FSD软件更新(12.3.2):** * FSD 12.3.2正在向北美更多的早期体验客户推出,预计已有55-60%的车队收到了更新。 * “介入”弹窗再次改变;现在可以通过语音消息消失,但仍然需要选择一个选项才能继续。 * **反馈:** 褒贬不一。尽管一些早期反馈是积极的,但一些用户(比利、迈克和主持人的朋友)报告了问题,包括FSD性能下降、立即要求接管、行为不稳定,并认为其不如12.2版本完善。 * 12.3的真正广泛发布即将到来,但尚未实现。 * **荷兰FSD订阅服务:** * 在上个月推出FSD订阅服务后,特斯拉将从5月15日起停止在荷兰销售FSD一次性买断选项,届时月度订阅将成为唯一选择。 * 荷兰车主在不到一个月的时间内,以有人监督的FSD模式行驶了1000万公里(620万英里),平均每天超过20万英里。 **特斯拉Semi与充电:** * **Big F Transport订单:** * Big F Transport公司是一家位于加州的小型短途运输公司(负责港口集装箱运输),在试用了一辆特斯拉Semi后,订购了40辆。他们已经拥有9辆戴姆勒E Cascadias。 * 这些Semi卡车将在兰乔多明格斯的Forum Mobility堆场运营,预计于2027年第一季度投入使用。 * **益处:** 司机喜欢平稳安静的驾驶体验,托运人赞赏减少排放,首席财务官会喜欢其总拥有成本(TCO)。 * **租赁模式:** Forum Mobility是一家帮助车队实现电气化的公司,将拥有这40辆Semi,并将其租赁给Big F Transport,同时提供其堆场充电器使用权。Big F计划实现100%电气化。 * **华盛顿州回扣:** * 华盛顿州宣布了一项针对8级电动卡车的**17.5万美元回扣计划**(WASIT),长续航版特斯拉Semi符合申请条件。 * 这是一种即时销售点折扣。如果一辆长续航Semi成本约为29万美元,这项激励措施将价格降至11.5万美元,这大大低于新的柴油8级卡车(约17.5万美元)。 * 这使得特斯拉Semi现在在至少两个西海岸州成为“无需多言”的选择。 * **新型125kW基础充电器:** * 专为更长的停留时间及夜间充电设计(重型车队的“家庭充电”)。 * 采用完全集成设计(无需独立的交直流转换柜),简化了安装。 * 电缆长度为6米(是兆瓦充电器3米的两倍)。 * 最多三个基础充电器可以串联在一个断路器上,以降低成本。 * 最大限度地利用V4充电桩和电力电子设备的通用部件,以实现成本效益和可靠性。 * 四小时内可增加高达60%的续航里程。 * 预计2027年初开始交付。 * **充电器定价与经济性:** * 兆瓦充电器最低采购量为两个(每个估计9.4万美元)。 * 基础充电器最低采购量为两个(每个估计2万美元)。 * 每千瓦成本:基础充电器160美元/千瓦,兆瓦充电器78美元/千瓦(柜体集成在基础充电器中)。 * **特斯拉充电费用:** 特斯拉向创收站点收取每千瓦时**0.08美元**的全包费用(涵盖维护、行程规划、网络运营等)。这*并非*向客户收取的零售价格;站点所有者将自行设定零售价格以获取利润。 * **策略:** 特斯拉继续为客户提高效率和降低总拥有成本,利用规模经济,旨在成为半挂车充电领域的先行者和主要硬件供应商。 **特斯拉Model 3在加拿大:** * **新定价:** Model 3目前在北美地区的加拿大售价最低。一款高端后轮驱动版本约合2.9万美元。 * **来源:** 这些车辆将来自上海超级工厂,彰显其成本效益。 * **原因:** 加拿大与中国签署协议,将中国电动汽车的100%进口关税降至常规的6%。 * Model 3的Performance版本也降价超过15%。 * **关税配额:** 6%的关税税率每年限额约4.9万辆(先到先得),到2030年将增至约7万辆。 * **激励措施:** 尽管这款Model 3由于其中国产地,将无法获得5000加元的联邦激励,但其价格仍然“令人难以置信”。 * **缺点:** 在下雪的加拿大使用后轮驱动车辆需要注意,但如果配备合适的轮胎,仍可使用。 **Figure人形机器人:** * **访问:** Brett Adcock和Figure公司向Sorcery提供了广泛的工厂参观权限。 * **规格:** Figure 3重约130磅,高5英尺6英寸,表面有一层柔软的泡沫,衣服可拆卸/更换。 * **控制:** 行走和动作由其Helix 2.0神经网络控制,而非传统代码。 * **内部设计:** 躯干在一个大盒子里装有GPU、计算机电源分配和电池单元。 * **手部:** 第五代手部,配备掌心摄像头,抓握力更强。可搬起40磅重的箱子。 * **耐用性:** 在受到强烈推力时能自我修正。 * **电池:** 续航4-5小时(取决于活动),通过脚部的无线感应充电垫(每只脚1千瓦,总共2千瓦)约1小时充满。 * **生产:** 目前工厂满负荷生产可达每年4-5万台,长期目标是每年100万台。 * **当前产量:** Brett Adcock表示本周将生产55台人形机器人(可能是突发产量,但很可能每周100-200台)。生产速度在120天内从每天1台机器人提升到每小时1台(尚未24/7生产)。 * **客户:** 预计未来90天内将公布新客户(部分用于测试)。 * **重点:** 高度专注于通用型机器人。 * **怀疑:** 主持人对机器人能为首批客户实际做些什么表示怀疑。 **特斯拉Cybertruck生产:** * 周一早些时候,乔·泰特迈尔发现现场有25-30辆Cybertruck,这表明日产量为5-15辆(仍是相对较小的数字)。 **特斯拉欧洲销售:** * 路透社报道称,特斯拉在4月份的注册量“反弹”:瑞典(+111%)、丹麦(+102%)、法国(+112%)和荷兰(+23%)。 * 主持人认为一个月的销售数据由于发货时间的原因是“噪音”,更倾向于等待ACEA数据(季度/年初至今)。 * 欧洲纯电动汽车在新车注册中的份额在第一季度达到20.5%(高于去年的13.2%),并有望很快接近25%,这表明电动汽车整体正在反弹。 **加州DMV自动驾驶汽车法规:** * 7月1日生效的新法规将显著改变自动驾驶汽车在加州的运营方式。 * **对公司开罚单:** 执法部门现在可以对自动驾驶汽车*公司*(制造商)因交通违规行为开具罚单,解决了此前无法对司机开罚单的问题。 * 制造商将收到一份“不合规通知”,有72小时进行数字回复,并可提出异议。未能回复可能导致DMV调查、纠正措施或许可证暂停。 * **5万英里安全测试:** 制造商必须完成5万英里安全测试(证明硬件/软件的安全性),DMV才会颁发商业许可证。 * **远程操作人员:** 必须符合加州的执照、许可和培训要求(解决了对Waymo菲律宾籍安全操作员的担忧)。 * **紧急救援支持:** * 公司必须提供车载通信系统,以便急救人员在30秒内联系到公司代表。 * 地方官员现在可以实施**临时电子地理围栏区域**,以阻止自动驾驶汽车进入紧急区域;已在区域内的自动驾驶汽车必须驶离。违规行为可能导致许可证限制/暂停。 * **影响:** 加州仍然是自动驾驶汽车最严格的州之一,这些新规则使其变得更加严格。主持人指出,如果这些规则在过去两年就已经实施,Waymo可能会遇到麻烦。 * **实施:** 这些法规将在未来几个月内分阶段实施,其他州也可能采取类似的临时措施。 **特斯拉Model YL:** * 有报道称特斯拉正在美国(特别是帕洛阿尔托)测试Model YL。 * 尽管埃隆·马斯克曾对此泼过“冷水”,但这证实了早些时候的非官方报道,暗示着该车型在美国上市在即。 **特斯拉Model X与Optimus生产:** * 特斯拉分享了一张“最后一款Model X”的照片。 * 埃隆·马斯克表示,SNX(S、N、X)生产线将于5月关闭,以准备Optimus的生产。 **埃隆·马斯克净资产:** * 埃隆·马斯克的净资产突破8000亿美元大关,“正朝着1万亿美元迈进”。 * 埃隆回复了一条评论,称“10万亿美元,否则一无所有”。 **特斯拉股票:** * 特斯拉股价当日收于192.51美元,上涨0.43%。 * 纳斯达克100指数(NDX)下跌0.21%。 * 交易量低于平均水平30%。

Here's a detailed summary of the video transcription, covering every news item discussed: **Host Updates & General:** * Dylan Loomis thanks new patron, Patrick C. * He plans to go quicker due to upcoming interviews. * He recently recorded an hour-long interview with Mark, a Tesla/Cybertruck focused community member, which will be linked below. * Another interview will be dropping later this week, likely on the weekend. **Tesla Autonomous Driving & FSD:** * **California AV Permit Status:** * Tesla currently only holds a Transportation Charter Permit (TCP) in California, classifying its ride-hail program as a chauffeur/limousine service, not autonomous. * The CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) confirmed they have received no applications from Tesla for any autonomous vehicle permits. * **Reason:** Tesla is actively making public comments on *new* CPUC rulemaking regarding autonomous vehicle passenger transportation services. The speaker believes Tesla is trying to shape these new rules before applying for official permits. * **Implications:** Tesla can continue to run its ride-hail program, collecting data and building infrastructure. * **Timeline:** This likely means at least a few months, possibly 6-9 months+, before true unsupervised robo-taxi service from Tesla in California. Unsupervised testing to meet California's 50,000-mile requirement *might* happen later this year, but paid customer service is unlikely until sometime in 2027. * **Texas Robo-taxi Expansion:** * Tesla's robo-taxis in Austin are now operating unsupervised in the evenings for the first time as of this past Sunday, previously ending mid-afternoon. This is significant as many reported incidents to NHTSA occurred at night. * Official website lists service from 6 AM to 2 AM Central Time, but it's noted Dallas and Houston likely shut down earlier. * **Robo-taxi Tracker Numbers:** Houston has 6 unsupervised vehicles, Dallas 5, and Austin 24, totaling 35. * **Forecast:** Tesla is on track to reach 10-15 unsupervised vehicles in Dallas and Houston over the next 2-3 weeks. * Growth rate is considered slow but in line with expectations. * **Supervised FSD Statistics:** * Tesla has officially crossed the **10 billion miles driven** mark on supervised FSD, equivalent to 3.5 million US coast-to-coast drives. * This milestone is *not* expected to be a "light switch moment" for scaling unsupervised autonomy. * **FSD Software Update (12.3.2):** * FSD 12.3.2 is rolling out to more Early Access customers in North America, with 55-60% of the fleet estimated to have received it. * The "intervene" pop-up was changed again; it now goes away with a voice message but still requires selecting an option otherwise. * **Feedback:** Mixed. While some early feedback was positive, some users (Billy, Mike, and a friend of the host) are reporting issues, including degraded FSD, immediate takeover requests, jittery behavior, and finding it less polished than the 12.2 branch. * A true wide release of 12.3 is nearing but not yet here. * **FSD Subscriptions in Netherlands:** * After launching FSD subscriptions last month, Tesla will end the one-time FSD outright purchase in the Netherlands as of May 15th, making the monthly option the only choice. * Netherlands owners have driven 10 million kilometers (6.2 million miles) on supervised FSD in under one month, averaging over 200,000 miles per day. **Tesla Semi & Charging:** * **Big F Transport Order:** * Big F Transport, a smaller California-based drayage company (moving containers to/from ports), ordered 40 Tesla Semi units after demoing just one. They already own 9 Daimler E Cascadias. * The Semis will operate at a Forum Mobility depot in Rancho Dominguez, expected online in Q1 2027. * **Benefits:** Drivers appreciate the smooth/quiet ride, shippers appreciate reduced emissions, and CFOs will love the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO). * **Leasing Model:** Forum Mobility, a company that helps electrify fleets, will own these 40 Semis and lease them to Big F Transport, providing access to their depot chargers. Big F plans to scale to 100% electric. * **Washington State Rebate:** * Washington State announced a **$175,000 rebate program** (WASIT) for Class 8 electric trucks, which the long-range Tesla Semi qualifies for. * This is an instant point-of-sale discount. If a long-range Semi costs ~$290,000, this incentive brings the price down to $115,000, significantly undercutting new diesel Class 8 trucks (~$175,000). * This makes the Tesla Semi a "no-brainer" in at least two West Coast states now. * **New 125kW Base Charger:** * Designed for longer dwell times and overnight charging ("home charging" for heavy-duty fleets). * Features a fully integrated design (no separate AC to DC cabinet), simplifying installation. * Cable length is 6 meters (twice the megacharger's 3 meters). * Up to three base chargers can be daisy-chained on a single breaker to reduce costs. * Maximizes carryover content from V4 posts and power electronics for cost efficiency and reliability. * Can add up to 60% range in four hours. * Deliveries estimated to begin early 2027. * **Charger Pricing & Economics:** * Minimum purchase of two megachargers ($94,000 estimated per unit). * Minimum purchase of two base chargers ($20,000 estimated per unit). * Cost per kilowatt: Base charger $160/kW, Megacharger $78/kW (cabinet built into base charger). * **Tesla's Charging Fee:** Tesla charges revenue-generating sites an all-inclusive fee of **$0.08 per kilowatt-hour** (covering maintenance, trip planning, network operation, etc.). This is *not* the retail price to customers; site owners will set their own retail pricing to profit. * **Strategy:** Tesla continues to drive efficiency and TCO for customers, leveraging economies of scale, and aims to be a first-mover and major hardware supplier in the semi-charging space. **Tesla Model 3 in Canada:** * **New Pricing:** The Model 3 is now at its lowest pricing in North America in Canada. A premium Rear-Wheel Drive variant is equivalent to about $29,000 USD. * **Source:** These vehicles will be coming from Giga Shanghai, highlighting its cost efficiency. * **Reason:** Canada signed a deal with China to drop 100% import tariffs on Chinese EVs to the regular 6% rate. * The Performance variant of the Model 3 has also seen a 15%+ price reduction. * **Tariff Quota:** The 6% tariff rate is limited to ~49,000 vehicles per year (first-come, first-served), growing to ~70,000 by 2030. * **Incentives:** While this Model 3 won't qualify for the $5,000 Canadian federal incentive due to its Chinese origin, the price remains "incredible." * **Drawback:** RWD in snowy Canada is noted, but with proper tires, it can be serviceable. **Figure Humanoid Robot:** * **Access:** Brett Adcock and Figure provided extensive factory access to Sorcery. * **Specs:** Figure 3 weighs ~130 lbs, is 5'6" tall, has a squishy foam layer, and removable/changeable clothes. * **Control:** Walking and movements are controlled by their Helix 2.0 neural network, not traditional code. * **Internal Design:** The torso houses GPUs, computer power distribution, and cells in one large box. * **Hands:** Fifth-generation hands with palm-mounted cameras and improved grip. Can pick up 40-pound boxes. * **Durability:** Self-corrects when pushed hard. * **Battery:** Lasts 4-5 hours (activity-dependent), recharges in about 1 hour via wireless inductive charging pads in its feet (1 kilowatt per foot, total 2 kilowatts). * **Production:** Current facility can produce 40,000-50,000 units per year at full capacity, with a long-term goal of 1 million units per year. * **Current Rate:** Brett Adcock stated 55 humanoid robots would be made this week (possibly a burst rate, but likely 100-200 per week). Production went from 1 robot/day to 1 robot/hour in 120 days (not 24/7 yet). * **Customers:** New customers expected to be announced in the next 90 days (some for testing). * **Focus:** Hyper-focused on a general-purpose robot. * **Skepticism:** The host expresses skepticism about what the robots will actually be able to do for initial customers. **Tesla Cybertruck Production:** * Joe Tettmeier observed 25-30 Cybertrucks around the site early Monday, suggesting a production rate of 5-15 units per day (still relatively small numbers). **Tesla European Sales:** * Reuters reported a "rebound" in April for Tesla registrations: Sweden (+111%), Denmark (+102%), France (+112%), and Netherlands (+23%). * The host views one-month data as "noise" due to shipment timing and prefers to wait for ACEA data (quarterly/year-to-date). * Europe's BEV share of new car registrations was 20.5% in Q1 (up from 13.2% last year) and is likely to approach 25% soon, indicating an overall EV rebound. **California DMV AV Regulations:** * New regulations taking effect on July 1st will significantly change how AVs operate in California. * **Tickets for Companies:** Law enforcement can now issue tickets to AV *companies* (manufacturers) for traffic violations, addressing previous issues where no driver could be ticketed. * Manufacturers will receive a "notice of non-compliance," have 72 hours to respond digitally, and can contest. Failure to respond can lead to DMV investigation, corrective actions, or permit suspension. * **50,000-Mile Safety Test:** Manufacturers must complete a 50,000-mile safety test (demonstrating hardware/software safety) before the DMV issues a commercial permit. * **Remote Operations Personnel:** Must meet California's licensing, permitting, and training requirements (addressing concerns about Waymo's Philippines-based safety operators). * **First Responder Support:** * Companies must provide an onboard communication system for first responders to reach a company representative within 30 seconds. * Local officials can now enact **temporary electronic geofencing zones** to prevent AVs from entering emergency areas; AVs already present must exit. Violations can lead to permit restrictions/suspension. * **Impact:** California remains one of the strictest states for AVs, and these new rules make it even more so. The host notes that if these rules had been in place for the past two years, Waymo would likely be in trouble. * **Implementation:** Regulations will be phased in over the next few months, and other states may adopt similar interim measures. **Tesla Model YL:** * Reports of Tesla testing the Model YL in the United States (specifically Palo Alto). * This corroborates earlier unofficial reports despite Elon Musk pouring "cold water" on the idea, suggesting a US launch is imminent. **Tesla Model X & Optimus Production:** * Tesla shared a picture of the "very last Model X to ever be produced." * Elon Musk stated that the SNX (S, N, X) lines would be shut down in May to prepare for Optimus production. **Elon Musk Net Worth:** * Elon Musk's net worth crossed the $800 billion mark, "on his way to $1 trillion." * Elon responded to a comment, saying "$10 trillion or bust." **Tesla Stock:** * Tesla stock closed the day at $192.51, up 0.43%. * The NDX (Nasdaq 100 Index) was down 0.21%. * Volume was 30% below the average.