Electrified - Tesla Begins Unsupervised Scaling / Patent for FSD Upgrades / New SpaceX IPO Details ⚡️
发布时间:2026-03-30 23:26:28
原节目
以下是 Electrified 节目中讨论的新闻摘要:
**主持人动态:**
* Dylan Lumis 因新设置问题(掉帧、软件故障)未能出镜,他仍在排查解决这些问题。
* 他个人进展顺利,预计将在2-3周内投入更多时间到 Electrified 节目中,并希望不久后能恢复视频内容。
**特斯拉 Robotaxi 和 FSD 进展:**
* 一辆此前有监督的特斯拉自动驾驶出租车(Robotaxi)被发现在无人监督下运行,这是一个多月来首次发现的独立运行车辆。
* 用户 Ferg 注意到,这辆车被标记为有监督,但实际是无人监督抵达。它用了9分钟到达,2.5英里收费6.50美元(比优步便宜约20美元)。
* 据第三方追踪器显示,奥斯汀无人监督的活跃车辆数量已从一辆增加到九辆。
* 这表明奥斯汀可能在4月份进行更广泛的监督员撤离,预计奥斯汀到5月份将主要实现无人监督,从而为在新城市推广该服务铺平道路。
* **FSD 14.3:** 预计将推出,但可能需要数周的测试和点版本发布才能稳定运行。
* **FSD 里程碑:** 特斯拉目前已累计 89 亿英里 FSD 里程。以目前每月增加约 5 亿英里的速度,预计他们将在 5 月份突破 100 亿英里大关(埃隆·马斯克设定的安全无人驾驶目标)。
**CyberCab:**
* 奥斯汀的一次无人机航拍显示,有 Cybercab 出现在碰撞测试设施中,其中一辆的“引擎盖被掀开”,证实了它没有前备箱。
**特斯拉在日本的扩张:**
* 特斯拉计划今年将日本直营服务中心数量从14个增加一倍以上,达到30多个。
* 许多新中心将设在经销商附近,利用交钥匙物业以低成本扩张。
* 特斯拉还与当地汽车维修设施合作,为客户提供额外50多个服务点。
* 2023年特斯拉在日本的销量增长90%,达到10,600辆,超越了2022年5,900辆的最高纪录。
* 该公司将重点从线上销售转向线下销售,去年经销商数量从10家增加到约30家。
* 埃隆·马斯克证实将大量投资于日本的服务和超级充电站,并指出许多特斯拉零部件在日本制造。
* 有监督的 FSD 目标是在2024年底前在日本推出,具体取决于监管批准。
* 日本电动汽车市场目前规模较小(2023年纯电动汽车总销量为60,600辆,占汽车市场不到2%),但作为全球第三大汽车市场,它拥有巨大潜力。
**赞助商环节 (Delete Me):**
* 一家提供身份保护服务的公司最近遭遇数据泄露,90万条记录因一名员工遭遇有针对性的网络钓鱼攻击而被盗。
* 这顺势引出了 Delete Me,一家赞助商,它能从人肉搜索网站上删除个人信息,保护用户免受数据泄露、诈骗和AI语音克隆的侵害。
**麦考密克法官和特拉华州诉讼:**
* 麦考密克法官驳回了埃隆·马斯克要求回避的动议,但批准了重新分配三起案件的动议,理由是“过度媒体关注”不利于司法公正。
* 两起正在进行的案件将被重新分配:
1. 股东声称埃隆和特斯拉将人才转移到 X/XAI,以及与埃隆在收购 Twitter 前出售2022年特斯拉股票相关的诉求。
2. 股东投诉埃隆的公开声明/推文损害了特斯拉利益,违反了美国证券交易委员会的协议,并导致了股价波动。
* 第三起已解决的案件(特斯拉董事归还了近7.4亿美元的股票/期权)也将因行政或费用相关事宜被重新分配。
* **未来诉讼:** 随着特斯拉现在成为一家总部位于德克萨斯州的公司,以及新的3%所有权门槛(需要持有约450亿美元的特斯拉股票),在特拉华州提起衍生诉讼将变得更加困难。
**潜在的三排座 Cyber SUV:**
* Ryan Peterson 建议推出一款三排、三门汽车,以期刺激“婴儿潮”,埃隆对此回复“已阅”。
* 提及了一项题为“汽车安全座椅即避孕药”的研究,强调现代车辆难以舒适地安装三个儿童安全座椅,使得大家庭的成本更高。埃隆回应道:“好吧,我想我们应该解决这个问题。”
* Lamar MK 分享了一款“七座 Cyber SUV”的概念图,声称拥有“三排全尺寸座椅、宽敞的腿部空间、充裕的头部空间,毫不妥协”。埃隆转发了该图,并附上 Alexis O'Haney 关于“事业型奶爸”需要三排座椅的评论。
* 主持人总结道,推出一款真正的 Cyber SUV(与 Cybertruck 或 Model Y 不同)的可能性“显著增加”。
**第一季度交付估算:**
* 分析师对特斯拉2024年第一季度交付量的普遍预期为365,645辆。
* Kalshi 上的公开预测市场预测为359,000辆(高于3月初的约33万辆)。
* 2023年第一季度交付量为336,681辆,该数字受到 Model Y 车型转换的影响。
**FSD 交通灯事件:**
* 一段视频显示,FSD 跟着一辆水泥卡车行驶,卡车遮挡了交通灯的视线。当卡车移动后,FSD 发现是红灯,立即猛踩刹车。
* 主持人质疑 FSD 是否应该更早减速以预判红灯。
**SpaceX IPO 计划:**
* SpaceX 计划为散户投资者保留约30%的股份。
* 摩根士丹利的 E-Trade 正在与 SpaceX 商谈,以主导向普通美国投资者出售股票,可能排除 Robinhood 和 SoFi。
* 富达也正在争夺在其平台上分发股票。
* 预计30%的散户配额中很大一部分将流向由承销银行服务的私人财富和高净值客户,规模较小的自主交易散户投资者将争夺剩余部分。
* 主持人建议感兴趣的人士联系他们的经纪人。
**关于类人机器人的两党法案:**
* 一项新提出的两党法案将禁止 *联邦政府* 采购和运营由“外国关注实体”(例如中国)制造的类人机器人。
* 该法案 *不* 构成对这些机器人在私营部门销售、消费者购买或大学使用的彻底禁令。
* 它为军队和执法部门设置了例外条款,前提是机器人经过修改以阻止数据回传到中国。
* 主持人表示,未来可能对中国类人机器人征收关税,但该法案未涉及此问题。
**特斯拉模块化电脑专利:**
* 特斯拉获得了一项新公布的(尚未获得授权)关于“模块化液冷车载电脑”的专利。
* 这种设计将允许特斯拉更换电脑的某一半(例如 FSD 计算模块或信息娱乐/MCU 模块),而无需更换整个单元。
* 它具有可堆叠的电子模块,安装在共享的液冷散热板上。
* 优点包括更快、更便宜的维修/升级,以及降低重量、成本和封装难度。
* 这种模块化方法将为特斯拉计划中的快速 AI 芯片迭代周期提供更大的灵活性,在需要时只更换 AI 电脑,而无需影响车辆的其他功能。
**股市更新:**
* 特斯拉(TSLA)收盘价为355.28美元,下跌1.81%。
* 纳斯达克100指数下跌0.78%。
* TSLA 成交量比平均水平高14%。
Here's a summary of the news discussed in the Electrified episode:
**Host's Updates:**
* Dylan Lumis is off-camera due to new setup issues (dropped frames, software problems) that he's still troubleshooting.
* He's making personal progress and expects to dedicate more time to Electrified in 2-3 weeks, hoping to return to video content soon after.
**Tesla Robotaxi & FSD Progress:**
* A previously supervised Tesla Robotaxi was spotted operating unsupervised, the first unique vehicle in over a month.
* The user, Ferg, noted the car was labeled supervised but arrived unsupervised. It took 9 minutes to arrive and cost $6.50 for 2.5 miles (about $20 cheaper than Uber).
* The number of unsupervised active vehicles in Austin has reportedly increased from one to nine, according to a third-party tracker.
* This suggests a potential broader supervisor removal in Austin during April, with predictions of Austin being primarily unsupervised by May, paving the way for new city rollouts.
* **FSD 14.3:** Expected to roll out, but will likely require several weeks of testing and dot releases to smooth out.
* **FSD Mileage Milestone:** Tesla is currently at 8.9 billion FSD miles. At the current pace of adding ~500 million miles/month, they are expected to cross the 10 billion mile threshold (Elon's target for safe unsupervised driving) in May.
**CyberCab:**
* A drone flyover in Austin showed Cybercabs at a crash test facility, with one having its "hood up," confirming the absence of a frunk.
**Tesla Japan Expansion:**
* Tesla plans to double its directly operated service centers in Japan to over 30 this year, up from 14.
* Many new centers will be located near dealerships, utilizing turnkey properties to expand at low cost.
* Tesla is also partnering with local auto care facilities, offering customers over 50 additional service locations.
* Tesla's sales in Japan were up 90% in 2023, reaching 10,600 vehicles, surpassing the 2022 high of 5,900.
* The company shifted emphasis from online to in-person sales, expanding dealerships from 10 to ~30 last year.
* Elon Musk confirmed significant investment in Japan for service and Superchargers, noting many Tesla parts are made there.
* Supervised FSD is targeted for launch by the end of 2024 in Japan, pending regulatory approval.
* Japan's EV market is currently small (60,600 total BEV sales in 2023, <2% of the auto market), but holds immense potential as the world's third-largest auto market.
**Sponsor Segment (Delete Me):**
* A company selling identity protection services recently experienced a data breach where 900,000 records were stolen due to an employee falling for a targeted phishing attack.
* This serves as a segue to Delete Me, a sponsor that removes personal information from people-search sites, protecting users from data breaches, scams, and AI voice cloning.
**Judge McCormick & Delaware Lawsuits:**
* Judge McCormick denied Elon Musk's motion for recusal but granted a motion for reassignment of three cases, citing "disproportionate media attention" as detrimental to justice administration.
* Two active cases will be reassigned:
1. Shareholder claims that Elon and Tesla diverted talent to X/XAI and claims related to Elon's 2022 Tesla stock sale before the Twitter acquisition.
2. Shareholder complaints that Elon's public statements/tweets harmed Tesla, violated SEC agreements, and caused stock volatility.
* A third case, already settled (Tesla directors returned nearly $740 million in stock/options), will also be reassigned for administrative or fee-related matters.
* **Future Lawsuits:** With Tesla now a Texas-based company and a new 3% ownership threshold (requiring ~$45 billion in Tesla stock), it will be significantly harder for derivative-type suits to be brought in Delaware.
**Potential Three-Row Cyber SUV:**
* Ryan Peterson suggested a three-row, three-door car to potentially spark a "baby boom," to which Elon replied, "Noted."
* A study titled "Car seats as contraception" was mentioned, highlighting how modern vehicles struggle to fit three child seats comfortably, making larger families more expensive. Elon responded, "Well, I guess we should solve this."
* Lamar MK shared a mockup of a "seven-seater Cyber SUV" with "three full rows, real legroom, real headroom, no compromises," which Elon reposted along with Alexis O'Haney's comment about "business dads" needing three rows.
* The host concludes that the chances of a true Cyber SUV (distinct from Cybertruck or Model Y) have "gone up significantly."
**Q1 Delivery Estimates:**
* Analyst consensus for Q1 2024 Tesla deliveries is 365,645.
* The public prediction market on Kalshi has it at 359,000 (up from ~330,000 in early March).
* Q1 2023 deliveries were 336,681, which was impacted by the Model Y changeover.
**FSD Traffic Light Incident:**
* A video showed FSD following a cement truck, which blocked the view of a traffic light. When the truck moved, FSD immediately slammed on the brakes as the light was red.
* The host questioned whether FSD should have slowed down earlier to anticipate the light.
**SpaceX IPO Plans:**
* SpaceX plans to reserve around 30% of shares for retail investors.
* Morgan Stanley's E-Trade is in talks with SpaceX to lead the sale of shares to everyday US investors, potentially cutting out Robinhood and SoFi.
* Fidelity is also vying to distribute shares on its platform.
* A significant portion of the 30% retail allocation is expected to go to private wealth and high net worth clients served by underwriting banks, with smaller self-directed retail investors competing for the remainder.
* The host advises interested individuals to contact their brokers.
**Bipartisan Bill on Humanoid Robots:**
* A newly introduced bipartisan bill would ban the *federal government* from procuring and operating humanoid robots manufactured by "foreign entities of concern" (e.g., China).
* This bill does *not* constitute an outright ban on private sector sales, consumer purchases, or university use of these robots.
* It includes carve-outs for military and law enforcement if robots are modified to block data transmission back to China.
* The host suggests that future tariffs on Chinese humanoids are possible but not addressed by this specific bill.
**Tesla Modular Computer Patent:**
* Tesla has a new published patent (not yet granted) for a "modular liquid-cooled vehicle computer."
* This design would allow Tesla to swap one half of the computer (e.g., FSD compute or infotainment/MCU) instead of replacing the entire unit.
* It features stackable electronics modules on a shared liquid-cooled cold plate.
* Benefits include faster and cheaper service/upgrades, reduced weight, cost, and packaging.
* This modular approach would provide greater flexibility for Tesla's planned rapid AI chip iteration cycles, allowing them to replace only the AI computer when needed, separate from other car functionalities.
**Stock Market Update:**
* Tesla (TSLA) closed at $355.28, down 1.81%.
* The NDX was down 0.78%.
* TSLA volume was 14% above average.