本周市场以动荡不安收场，这标志着中东冲突已进入第三周，标普500指数连续第四周下跌，本周收跌1.5%。衡量市场波动性的VIX指数飙升，接近28。债券市场出现剧烈波动，10年期国债收益率上升近14个基点至4.40%，表明整个收益率曲线出现普遍抛售。油价继续上涨，布伦特原油上涨4%至112美元，达到盘中高点，自战争爆发以来累计上涨近50%。除了原油，纽约取暖油上涨70%，墨西哥湾沿岸航空燃料上涨超过80%，这预示着严重的供应侧冲击。 这种环境使各国央行陷入两难：通胀上升暗示加息，而经济增长放缓则预示降息。债券投资者“嗅到了风向”，抛售国债并推高了收益率。即使是通常较为稳定的市政债券，也因今年首次出现总计每日资金外流而变得波动不安。本周初的股市乐观情绪烟消云散，标普500指数跌幅接近7%，并收于其200日移动平均线以下，这是近一年来的首次。情绪指标，如AAII牛熊差，跌至自上次关税冲突以来未见的水平，暗示可能进一步下跌。 法国巴黎银行的格雷格·布特（Greg Boutle）将市场描述为处于“投降期”，已从浅层抛售转向更具意义的抛售。他强调，与对地缘政治事件更为敏感的欧洲市场相比，美国股市，尤其是大型股，展现出“相对韧性”。然而，非必需消费品和必需消费品板块更容易受到能源价格上涨的影响，其中必需消费品板块尽管近期有所反弹，却是本周表现最差的板块。黄金和国债等传统防御性资产未能提供预期的安全性，更像是投机性资产或债券替代品。布特认为，美联储将在今年剩余时间维持观望，在这种环境下，大型股仍能表现良好，但小型股在没有降息的情况下将面临挑战。 高盛的唐·S·斯特里夫（Don S. Stryv）警告称，布伦特原油可能达到历史新高，他称当前局势是“石油市场历史上最大的石油供应冲击”，波斯湾石油出口估计每天减少1700万桶。中断持续时间和基础设施受损风险是关键因素。他指出，由于高昂的运费以及市场消化了美国可能实施原油出口限制的预期，布伦特-WTI原油价差正在扩大。成品油价格面临更大的冲击，原因在于中东是重质成品油的主要出口地区，且缺乏针对这些产品的战略石油储备（SPR）。各国政府正在增加库存并实施出口限制，加剧了全球供应紧张。 摩根大通财富管理公司首席执行官克里斯汀·莱姆卡（Kristen Lemca）讨论了他们新的运动员委员会（成员包括汤姆·布雷迪、德维恩·韦德、梅根·拉皮诺），旨在帮助运动员应对复杂的财务生活。这一举措旨在解决运动员面临的挑战，即他们通常在年轻时收入丰厚，但职业生涯短暂。摩根大通旨在提供清晰的财务指导，并围绕运动员的需求构建内容，未来有可能扩展到女性和有色人种社区等服务不足的群体。 摩根大通资产管理公司全球房地产主管查德·特雷德韦（Chad Treadway）观察到零售业的“K型复苏”，电子商务逐渐式微，而实体店正在复苏，尤其是在高密度地区的奢侈品购物中心和以超市为主的商业街区。他强调了严重的住房短缺，倡导建造更多多户住宅和独户住宅，尤其是为中产家庭，并指出面向老年人的限制性住宅市场正在增长。关于数据中心和人工智能，他倾向于将整合了机器人技术和自动化的高功率容量的先进制造设施作为首选投资。 特朗普总统在白宫附近发表的未经安排的讲话加剧了市场不安。他表示，美国在伊朗军事上“已经赢了”，伊朗只是“堵塞了”霍尔木兹海峡，并建议北约应帮助将其打通。关键是，他没有表达停火的愿望，称“当你正在彻底摧毁对方时，是不会停火的。”这些言论，加上对该地区能源基础设施受损的担忧，暗示冲突将长期化，这进一步推高了油价，并使市场保持高度紧张。 StoneX集团首席市场策略师凯瑟琳·鲁尼·巴拉（Catherine Rooney Barra）将市场描述为正在消化“滞胀冲动”。她警告称，化肥存在“潜在风险”，自战争爆发以来价格已上涨40%，如果霍尔木兹海峡继续中断，将威胁到关键的春季播种季节。这可能导致严重的食品通胀，可能使美国通胀率额外增加两个百分点，而在非洲等脆弱地区可能更高。她建议投资者增持新兴市场的大宗商品出口国（例如巴西、阿根廷），长期持有国际股票而非美国股票，持有黄金，并青睐优质信贷。 交易日结束时，道琼斯指数、标普指数、纳斯达克指数和罗素2000指数均录得显著亏损，所有主要指数都收于或低于其200日移动平均线。根据其14日相对强弱指数（RSI），标普500指数也进入了“超卖状态”。另据消息，超微电脑（SuperMicro Computer）股价暴跌33%，此前其联合创始人被指控非法将英伟达芯片转运至中国，不过该公司表示其已辞职并配合当局调查。美元成为受益者，投机者今年首次对美元转为看涨。 展望未来，关键事件包括CERA周、中国发展高层论坛以及在巴黎举行的G7财长会议，在这些会议上，持续的能源危机及其全球影响将是首要议题。

The market closed out a tumultuous week, marking the third consecutive week of the Middle East conflict and the fourth straight week of losses for the S&P 500, which ended down 1.5%. Volatility, as measured by the VIX, surged, nearing 28. The bond market saw significant action, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising by nearly 14 basis points to 4.40%, indicating a broad sell-off across the curve. Oil prices continued their ascent, with Brent crude up 4% to $112, reaching session highs and nearly 50% since the war began. Beyond crude, refined products like New York heating oil were up 70%, and Gulf Coast jet fuel more than 80%, signaling a severe supply-side shock. This environment presents a dilemma for central banks: higher inflation suggests rate hikes, while lower growth points to cuts. Bond investors have "sniffed this out," selling off Treasuries and pushing yields higher. Even municipal bonds, typically stable, turned volatile with the first aggregate daily outflows of the year. Stock market optimism from the week's start evaporated, with the S&P 500's drawdown approaching 7% and closing below its 200-day moving average for the first time in almost a year. Sentiment indicators, like the AAII bull-bear spread, plunged to levels not seen since previous tariff fallouts, suggesting potential for further declines. Greg Boutle from BNP Paribas described the market as being in "capitulation territory," shifting from a shallow sell-off to a more meaningful one. He highlighted the "relative resilience" of US equities, particularly mega-cap stocks, compared to European markets, which are more sensitive to geopolitical events. However, consumer discretionary and staples sectors are more vulnerable to higher energy prices, with staples, despite a recent rally, being the worst-performing sector this week. Traditional defensives like gold and Treasuries are not providing the expected safety, acting more like speculative assets or bond proxies. Boutle believes the Fed will remain on hold for the rest of the year, an environment where mega-caps can still perform, but small caps will face challenges without rate cuts. Don S. Stryv of Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude could reach record highs, calling the situation the "largest oil supply shock in the history of oil markets," with Persian Gulf oil exports down an estimated 17 million barrels per day. The duration of the disruption and the risk of infrastructure damage are key factors. He noted the widening Brent-WTI spread due to high freight rates and the market pricing in potential US crude export restrictions. Refined product prices are seeing an even bigger shock due to the Middle East being a major exporter of heavier refined products and a lack of strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) for these. Governments are increasing stockpiling and implementing export restrictions, exacerbating global tightness. Kristen Lemca, CEO of JPMorgan Wealth Management, discussed their new athlete council (featuring Tom Brady, Dwyane Wade, Megan Rapinoe) to help athletes navigate complex financial lives. This initiative addresses the challenges athletes face, often earning large sums young with short careers. JPM aims to provide clear financial guidance and build content around athletes' needs, potentially expanding to underserved groups like women and communities of color. Chad Treadway, Global Head of Real Estate at JPMorgan Asset Management, observed a "k-shape recovery" in retail, with e-commerce fading and brick-and-mortar seeing a revival, particularly in luxury malls and grocery-anchored strip centers in high-density areas. He highlighted a significant housing shortage, advocating for building more multi-family and single-family homes, especially for middle-class families, and noted the growing market for age-restricted seniors housing. On data centers and AI, he favored advanced manufacturing facilities with high power capacity as the preferred investment, due to their integration of robotics and automation. President Trump's unscheduled remarks near the White House added to market jitters. He stated, "we've won" militarily in Iran, and that Iran is merely "clogging up the Strait" of Hormuz, suggesting NATO should help open it. Crucially, he expressed no desire for a ceasefire, saying, "you don't do a ceasefire when you're literally obliterating the other side." These comments, coupled with concerns about damaged energy infrastructure in the region, suggest a prolonged conflict, which further elevated oil prices and kept markets on edge. Catherine Rooney Barra, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, described the market as pricing in a "stagflationary impulse." She warned about a "sleeper risk" in fertilizer, with prices up 40% since the war began, threatening a critical spring planting season if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. This could lead to significant food inflation, potentially adding two percentage points to US inflation and even more in vulnerable regions like Africa. She advised investors to overweight commodity exporters in emerging markets (e.g., Brazil, Argentina), go long on international stocks over US, hold gold, and favor quality credit. The trading day ended with the Dow, S&P, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all posting significant losses, with all major indices closing at or below their 200-day moving averages. The S&P 500 also entered "oversold conditions" based on its 14-day RSI. In other news, SuperMicro Computer plunged 33% after its co-founder was indicted for illegally diverting Nvidia chips to China, though the company noted his resignation and cooperation with authorities. The dollar emerged as a beneficiary, with speculators flipping positive on the currency for the first time this year. Looking ahead, key events include CERAWeek, the China Development Forum, and a G7 finance ministers meeting in Paris, where the ongoing energy crisis and its global implications will be top of mind.