Electrified - Elon's Unexpected Tesla Announcement / New Tesla Semi Design / Unsupervised Finally Launches ⚡️
发布时间:2026-01-23 01:00:18
原节目
以下是新闻内容的中文摘要:
**特斯拉自动驾驶出租车和自动驾驶技术:**
* **无人驾驶付费乘车服务已在奥斯汀上线:** 特斯拉已正式在奥斯汀推出无人驾驶、顾客付费的自动驾驶出租车服务,这一消息得到了“Tesla 99T”的视频以及多位特斯拉工程师的证实。
* **混合车队与规模化:** 初期,无人驾驶车辆将与更广泛的、配备安全员的车辆混合运营,预计随着时间推移,无人驾驶车辆的比例将逐渐增加。
* **伴随车辆:** 目前,无人驾驶车辆会有特斯拉伴随车辆进行观察验证,预计还将持续2-3周。
* **有限的运行区域:** 一位乘客(Joe Tettmire)无法更改目的地,这表明这些无人驾驶车辆可能在更有限的地理围栏或特定区域内运行,很可能是特斯拉数据最丰富的奥斯汀南部地区。
* **首位报道者:** 首位报道此消息的人士是一名特斯拉前人工智能工程师。
* **车辆交互:** 方向盘被锁定,无法进行手动输入,但乘客座位可用。如果乘客随意触碰方向盘,将触发警报并最终导致车辆靠边停车。
* **定价一致性:** 自动驾驶出租车(3.31英里行程收费4.31美元)的定价与有安全员时保持一致,这证实了特斯拉的长期策略,即不将安全员的工资纳入成本模型。
* **小费选项:** 应用程序中存在小费选项,但过去有时会出现故障,显示“刺猬通知”。
* **埃隆确认:** 埃隆·马斯克在X上证实了此次发布,祝贺人工智能团队,并邀请更多人加入特斯拉AI,共同解决现实世界中的AI挑战。
* **历史时间线:** 从奥斯汀自动驾驶出租车服务推出到首次无人驾驶付费客户乘车,恰好用了7个月时间,这为未来在其他城市推出服务树立了标杆。
* **纯视觉成就:** 对于纯视觉自动驾驶系统来说,这是一个历史性时刻,其能力与消费级FSD车辆相同。
* **摩根士丹利分析师更新:** 摩根士丹利新任特斯拉股票分析师安德鲁承认了纯视觉方案的关键性时刻,但对自动驾驶出租车的扩张提出了保守预测(年底前1,000辆,2030年30,000辆,2040年500万辆),主持人认为这些预测过于保守。
* **FSD演示扩展:** 特斯拉已将FSD演示驾驶扩展到欧盟各地,现在包括西班牙和芬兰,试驾预约已排到第一季度。
* **FSD横贯大陆挑战(洛杉矶至纽约):** 一辆搭载硬件4.0和FSD 14.2.2.3的2024款Model S完成了从洛杉矶到纽约市3,081英里、零干预的行程,耗时58小时22分钟(平均时速64英里/小时),其中17%的时间用于充电。FSD系统在极端冬季条件(雪、冰、泥泞)下表现出色,获得了驾驶员的高度赞扬。
* **埃隆的FSD状态:** 埃隆·马斯克表示,自动驾驶是一个“已解决的问题”。
* **全球FSD/自动驾驶出租车推广:** 特斯拉预计其自动驾驶出租车服务将在今年年底前在美国“非常普遍”,并希望下个月在欧洲和中国在类似的时间线获得有监督的批准。
**特斯拉与SpaceX能源和AI计划:**
* **埃隆在达沃斯世界经济论坛的采访:** 埃隆重申,人工智能成本正在迅速下降,能源很快将成为限制因素,导致到年底时生产的芯片数量将超过可供电的芯片数量。
* **大规模太阳能生产:** 特斯拉和SpaceX现在都专注于建设大规模太阳能,目标是在大约3年内在美国每年合计生产100千兆瓦(GW)的太阳能。这比特斯拉历史上的部署量有了显著增加,可能主要用于太空中的AI数据中心。
* **国内太阳能生产:** 埃隆强调,由于高额进口关税,国内太阳能电池生产(不仅仅是组装)可以而且将会实现,这标志着垂直整合的转变,将使纽约布法罗等地受益。
**Optimus人形机器人:**
* **进展:** Optimus目前正在工厂中执行简单任务,预计今年晚些时候将处理更复杂的工业任务。
* **公开发售时间线:** 埃隆预测特斯拉将在明年年底前向公众销售Optimus,他对其可靠性、安全性和功能性充满信心。主持人对此在家用场景下的时间线表示怀疑,因为家用对安全性和可靠性有更严格的要求。
**ARK Invest “2026年大创意”报告:**
* **Optimus难度:** ARK估计Optimus的规模化难度是自动驾驶出租车的20万倍(相比埃隆所说的100倍)。
* **自动驾驶出租车市场份额:** Waymo在旧金山的市场份额停滞在15-20%,Uber仍占据主导地位。
* **自动驾驶里程:** 特斯拉的累计自动驾驶里程接近80亿英里,远超所有其他公司(<10亿英里)。
* **每英里成本优势:** ARK预测,特斯拉的改款Model Y在每英里增量成本上比Waymo的第五代车型(捷豹I-Pace)便宜35%。到2030年,赛博出租车(CyberCab)预计将比Waymo的第六代车型(Olli)便宜50%,目标是每英里0.20美元。埃隆称这一说法“可能属实”,但主持人对这一水平的盈利能力表示怀疑。
**其他特斯拉新闻:**
* **Megapack部署:** Copia Power宣布,亚利桑那州的Maricopa Energy已安装了594个特斯拉Megapack,总计2,200兆瓦时(MWh)的电池储能,并与一个550兆瓦(MW)的太阳能项目配对,预计将于年底投入运营。
* **特斯拉Semi更新版(“Atlas”):** 特斯拉Semi卡车的新版更新车型,代号“Atlas”,在展示时没有配备整流罩。它似乎略短,车顶高度不同,主要是为了适应各种拖车类型(平板车、油罐车)并便于运输,而非表示长途或短途续航。预计将在第四季度财报电话会议上公布更多更新信息。
* **Cybertruck交付:** Cybertruck已开始在阿联酋交付首批车辆。
**竞争对手新闻:**
* **Waymo进驻迈阿密:** Waymo已开始在迈阿密向公众开放其完全自动驾驶的叫车服务,服务范围为60平方英里,已吸引近1万名注册用户。
**SpaceX IPO与AI卫星:**
* **IPO计划:** SpaceX已与四家银行(美国银行、高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利)合作,以主导其潜在的首次公开募股(IPO)。
* **AI卫星规模化:** 埃隆澄清,“每年100千兆瓦”的SpaceX目标是指在3-4年内从地球发射的*太空AI卫星*所需的能量,纠正了之前“太瓦”的说法。他指出,每年数百太瓦的能源将需要月球制造,并且至少还需要10年以上才能实现,并补充说美国平均每年电力消耗仅为0.5太瓦。
**市场表现:**
* **特斯拉股价:** 特斯拉股价当日收盘上涨4.15%,报449.36美元,表现优于纳斯达克100指数(上涨0.76%)。
Here's a summary of the news items from the transcription:
**Tesla Robotaxi & Autonomy:**
* **Unsupervised Paid Rides Live in Austin:** Tesla has officially launched unsupervised, customer-paid robotaxi rides in Austin, confirmed by a video from "Tesla 99T" and various Tesla engineers.
* **Mixed Fleet & Scaling:** Initially, unsupervised vehicles are mixed with a broader fleet using safety monitors, with the ratio expected to increase over time.
* **Chase Vehicles:** Unsupervised vehicles currently have chase Tesla vehicles observing for validation, expected for another 2-3 weeks.
* **Limited Operational Domain:** A rider (Joe Tettmire) was unable to change his destination, suggesting these unsupervised vehicles might operate within a more limited geofence or specific area, likely South Austin where Tesla has the most data.
* **First News Breaker:** The first person to report this news was an ex-Tesla AI engineer.
* **Vehicle Interaction:** The steering wheel is locked for manual input, and the passenger seat is usable. Messing with the wheel triggers an alert and eventual vehicle pullover.
* **Pricing Consistency:** Robotaxi pricing ($4.31 for a 3.31-mile trip) remains the same as with safety monitors, confirming Tesla's long-term strategy to not factor monitor salaries into the model.
* **Tipping Option:** A tipping option exists in the app, but historically can sometimes glitch, showing a "hedgehog notification."
* **Elon's Confirmation:** Elon Musk confirmed the launch on X, congratulating the AI team and inviting others to join Tesla AI for solving real-world AI challenges.
* **Historic Timeline:** It took exactly 7 months from the launch of the Austin Robotaxi service to this first unsupervised paid customer ride, setting a benchmark for future city launches.
* **Camera-Only Achievement:** This is a historic moment for a camera-only autonomous system, with capabilities identical to consumer FSD vehicles.
* **Morgan Stanley Analyst Update:** Andrew, Morgan Stanley's new Tesla stock analyst, acknowledged the pivotal moment of the vision-only approach but provided conservative robotaxi scaling predictions (1,000 by year-end, 30,000 by 2030, 5 million by 2040), which the host believes are too low.
* **FSD Demo Expansion:** Tesla has expanded FSD demo drives across the EU, now including Spain and Finland, with rides booking through Q1.
* **FSD Cannonball Run (LA to NYC):** A 2024 Model S on hardware 4 with FSD 14.2.2.3 completed a 3,081-mile, zero-intervention trip from Los Angeles to New York City in 58 hours and 22 minutes (64 mph average), with 17% of the time spent charging. The FSD system handled extreme winter conditions (snow, ice, slush) with high praise from the driver.
* **Elon's FSD Status:** Elon Musk stated that self-driving is a "solved problem."
* **Global FSD/Robotaxi Rollout:** Tesla expects its robotaxi service to be "very widespread" in the US by the end of this year and hopes for supervised approval in Europe next month and China on a similar timeline.
**Tesla & SpaceX Energy & AI Initiatives:**
* **Elon's WEF Interview:** Elon reiterated that AI cost is declining quickly, and energy will soon be the limiting factor, leading to more chips produced than can be powered by year-end.
* **Large-Scale Solar Production:** Tesla and SpaceX are both now focusing on building large-scale solar, aiming for a combined 100 gigawatts per year in the US within approximately 3 years. This is a significant increase from Tesla's historical deployments and is likely geared towards AI data centers in space.
* **Domestic Solar Production:** Elon emphasized that domestic solar cell production (not just assembly) can and will be done due to high import tariffs, signifying a vertical integration shift, benefiting locations like Buffalo, NY.
**Optimus Humanoid Robot:**
* **Progress:** Optimus is currently performing simple tasks in the factory and is expected to handle more complex industrial tasks later this year.
* **Public Sales Timeline:** Elon predicts Tesla will be selling Optimus to the public by the end of next year, with high confidence in its reliability, safety, and functionality. The host expresses skepticism about this timeline for home settings due to stringent safety and reliability requirements.
**ARK Invest "Big Ideas 2026" Report:**
* **Optimus Difficulty:** ARK estimates Optimus is 200,000 times harder to scale than a robotaxi (compared to Elon's 100 times).
* **Robotaxi Market Share:** Waymo is stuck at 15-20% market share in San Francisco, with Uber remaining dominant.
* **Autonomous Miles:** Tesla is nearing 8 billion cumulative autonomous miles, significantly dwarfing all other companies (<1 billion).
* **Cost Per Mile Advantage:** ARK predicts Tesla's refreshed Model Y is 35% more affordable incrementally per mile than Waymo's Gen 5 (Jaguar I-Pace). By 2030, the CyberCab is projected to be 50% cheaper than Waymo's Gen 6 (Olli), aiming for $0.20/mile, a claim Elon said was "probably true," though the host has doubts about profitability at that level.
**Other Tesla News:**
* **Megapack Deployment:** Copia Power announced that Maricopa Energy in Arizona has installed 594 Tesla Megapacks, comprising 2,200 MWh of battery storage paired with a 550 MW solar project, expected to be operational by year-end.
* **Tesla Semi Refresh ("Atlas"):** A new, updated version of the Tesla Semi, code-named "Atlas," was shown without a fairing. It appears to be slightly shorter, with a different roof height primarily for accommodating various trailer types (flatbeds, tankers) and easier transport, rather than indicating long-haul vs. short-haul range. Updates are expected on the Q4 call.
* **Cybertruck Deliveries:** First Cybertruck deliveries have started in the UAE.
**Competitor News:**
* **Waymo in Miami:** Waymo has begun welcoming public riders into its fully autonomous ride-hailing service in Miami, starting with a 60-square-mile service area and nearly 10,000 sign-ups.
**SpaceX IPO & AI Satellites:**
* **IPO Plans:** SpaceX has lined up four banks (Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley) to lead its potential IPO.
* **AI Satellite Scaling:** Elon clarified that the "100 gigawatts per year" goal for SpaceX is for *space AI satellites* launched from Earth within 3-4 years, correcting previous "terawatt" claims. He noted that hundreds of terawatts per year would require moon manufacturing and is 10+ years away, providing context that the average US electricity consumption is only 0.5 terawatts.
**Market Performance:**
* **Tesla Stock:** Tesla stock closed the day up 4.15% at $449.36, outperforming the NDX (up 0.76%).