这是播客脚本的摘要，包含每一条新闻： * **免责声明与建模的局限性:** 主持人Dylan Umas在讨论Pierre Faragou的Robotaxi报告前强调，尽管建模有价值，但应谨慎对待，因为特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克的许多时间表都曾出错，分析师们也只是猜测。他指出，市场对自动驾驶汽车的接受度差异很大，且股市估值往往不反映公司实际成就，宏观经济事件也会影响结果。 * **Waymo Robotaxi 报告 (来自New Street Research):** * **市场份额:** 在旧金山市场运营两年后，Waymo在网约车市场中的份额仍仅为15%，Uber和Lyft占据主导地位。 * **成本问题:** Waymo的每英里成本为3.30美元，高于Uber的2.50美元。报告指出，即使将定价降低30%以吸引更多用户，Waymo每年每城市也将损失5亿美元，且目前尚未盈利。 * **成本削减挑战:** 为实现竞争性定价，Waymo需要将其销售成本/运营成本降低40%。 * **市场份额上限:** 除非Waymo能实质性改变其成本结构，否则其在任何市场的份额都将限制在10-20%。 * **市场成熟时间:** Waymo进入一个市场需要大约三年时间才能成熟（一年测试和地图绘制，试点阶段，然后全面推广达到15-20%的份额）。 * **特斯拉 Robotaxi 的结构性优势:** * **成本优势:** Waymo的Gen 5车队每单元成本为17万美元，长期预计每辆车7万美元。而特斯拉Cybercab预计每辆车成本约为2.5万美元（甚至更低）。 * **技术与集成:** 特斯拉在成本上比Waymo更有优势，得益于更简单的传感器套件、更低的制造成本和完全垂直整合。Waymo从原始设备制造商购买汽车，再购买并集成额外的传感器。 * **灵活的车队:** 特斯拉可以利用车主自有车辆来满足高峰需求，使得其自有车队保持高利用率。 * **资本支出效率:** 若要满足旧金山100%的网约车需求，Waymo的资本支出约为7亿美元，而特斯拉仅需1亿美元。 * **定价竞争力:** New Street Research估计，特斯拉目前每英里成本为2.20美元（比Uber便宜0.30美元，比Waymo便宜1.10美元），长期可能降至每英里0.50美元（比Waymo的长期潜力低40%）。 * **特斯拉在Robotaxi规模上的领先:** * 特斯拉FSD每季度积累的里程比Waymo自成立以来积累的总里程多近十倍。 * 预计到2027年底，特斯拉可能有数十万辆Robotaxi，而Waymo可能仍少于5万辆。 * **Robotaxi 消费者信任度:** 调查显示，消费者对自动驾驶汽车仍持高度怀疑态度，60%的美国人害怕乘坐自驾车，只有13%的人愿意乘坐Robotaxi。 * **MKBHD对Model Y Performance的评测:** 主持人认为MKBHD的评测平淡无奇，批评他未展示FSD、未提及自适应悬架，并对其“传统按钮更有趣”的言论表示不满。尽管MKBHD称赞特斯拉软件出色，但也暗示CarPlay/Android Auto更好。主持人认为MKBHD在特斯拉相关内容上已失去信誉。 * **David Moss FSD 无干预行驶里程纪录结束:** David Moss的FSD无干预行驶纪录在12,961英里时结束，原因是在威斯康星州农村的雪地和低温天气下，需要接管。他在7.5周内使用FSD 14.2行驶了30个州，相当于五次往返洛杉矶和纽约，主持人对此成就表示赞赏。 * **匿名 ADAS 专家（Genma JP）对传感器融合的看法:** 一位自称拥有15年以上传感器融合经验的匿名专家表示，他认为传感器融合是实现完全自动驾驶的“错误路径”和“拐杖”。他断言，现代神经网络已能从摄像头图像中充分提取深度和相对速度信息，而激光雷达和雷达在恶劣天气和语义识别方面存在根本性缺陷，反而阻碍了计算机视觉的真正进步。这印证了特斯拉的纯视觉方案。 * **加拿大与中国电动汽车贸易协议:** * 加拿大与中国达成初步贸易协议，将削减电动汽车和农产品的关税。 * 加拿大将允许每年进口多达4.9万辆中国电动汽车，关税税率为6.1%（此前为100%），未来五年内将逐步增至7万辆。 * 加拿大总理Mark Carney认为此举有助于学习创新伙伴、获取供应链并增加本地需求，并预计将推动中国对加拿大汽车业的投资。 * 批评者，包括美国贸易代表和安大略省省长，则认为这是一个糟糕的协议，将威胁加拿大工人的就业，并缺乏对加拿大经济的对等投资保证。 * **J. Cal 谈 Optimus V3 与埃隆·马斯克的帖子:** * Jason Calacanis在参观特斯拉后表示，Optimus 3将是“人类历史上最具变革性的技术产品”，预测未来人类与Optimus的比例将达到1:1，甚至会让人忘记特斯拉曾制造过汽车。 * 埃隆·马斯克随后发布了一段带有“Optimistic”字样（巧妙地拼写成“Optimus”）的AI生成视频，但视频中的机器人外观模糊，被质疑真实性。 * 主持人认为，这预示着特斯拉将推出Optimus V3的重大演示，展示其通用型人形机器人在通用能力（例如未来外科手术）方面的领先，且特斯拉正在为长期目标优化，而非短期市场竞争。 * **2025 S&P Global Loyalty Awards:** * 特斯拉连续第四年获得“整体品牌忠诚度”奖项。 * 在“少数族裔市场忠诚度”中表现出色，尤其在亚裔和拉丁裔家庭中保持了高留存率。 * 连续第六年获得“最高争夺率”奖项，表明特斯拉持续吸引其他汽车制造商的买家。 * 在七项整体忠诚度奖项中，特斯拉赢得了三项。 * **奥斯汀新Model Y无人机航拍:** 航拍画面显示奥斯汀的Model Ys车轮有覆盖物（可能显示新的灰色螺旋形轮毂），后备箱贴有贴纸（可能是性能徽章的位置）。 * **NHTSA FSD调查延期:** 特斯拉获得NHTSA五周的延期（至2月23日），以回应关于其FSD车辆涉嫌违反交通法规的调查。特斯拉称需要手动审查数千条记录，且同时面临多项NHTSA调查，导致工作量巨大。 * **Cybertruck纵火案宣判:** 去年四月在梅萨对特斯拉经销商和一辆Cybertruck进行纵火的Ian William Moses被判五年监禁。美国司法部长Pam Bondy将此行为称为“国内恐怖主义”。 * **ANCAP（澳大利亚和新西兰）安全评级:** Model Y获得ANCAP在2025年评估的所有车辆中最高的总加权分数，Model 3也表现出色。再次确认了Model Y作为最安全车型的地位。 * **特斯拉餐厅Sky Pad预订:** 特斯拉餐厅的高层阳台区域Sky Pad现已开放预订，用于举办活动（需至少提前两周提交请求）。 * **Wawa 超级充电站白标化:** 佛罗里达州Alachua的Wawa是第四家决定白标特斯拉超级充电站的企业，该地点设有16个充电桩。 * **股市表现:** 特斯拉股票收盘价为437.50美元，下跌0.24%；纳斯达克指数下跌0.07%。成交量低于平均水平14%。

Dylan Umas, host of "Electrified," kicks off the show with a shout-out to a new Tesla owner and then dives into a discussion about Pierre Faragou's Robotaxi report for 2026. He prefaces the analysis with a disclaimer about the speculative nature of such models, given Elon Musk's history of missed timelines and the inherent difficulty in predicting market adoption of autonomous vehicles. Umas cautions against relying too heavily on these models, as the stock market doesn't always reflect real-world achievements in real-time, and macro-economic factors can drastically alter outcomes. Umas then highlights key points from the report, starting with the observation that Waymo, despite its presence in San Francisco, only holds a 15% market share of ride-hailing trips after two years. He attributes this not only to skepticism towards self-driving cars but also to Waymo's higher cost per mile, at $3.30 compared to Uber's $2.50. The report suggests that reducing Waymo's pricing by 30% could lead to a significant increase in volume, but would also result in substantial annual losses. The report emphasizes that Waymo needs a 40% reduction in its cost of goods sold to achieve profitability. Umas argues that Waymo's struggle to reduce costs even without Tesla's competition raises questions about its long-term viability. The report also compares Waymo's Gen 5 fleet cost of $170,000 per unit to Tesla's projected Cyber Cab cost of around $25,000. It estimates that Waymo markets take about three years to mature, with a gradual rollout leading to a 15-20% market share cap. The report highlights Tesla's structural cost advantage over Waymo, stemming from a simpler sensor suite, lower manufacturing costs, and full vertical integration. Tesla also benefits from a flexible supply base, utilizing customer-owned vehicles to meet peak demand. The report estimates Tesla's cost per mile at $2.20 without a safety driver, which Umas believes is an overestimate. He argues that Tesla is likely building its pricing algorithm as if drivers are not part of the equation, pricing aggressively to capture market share. The report notes that Tesla generates significantly more miles per quarter with FSD than Waymo has since inception. It suggests Tesla has the potential to rapidly scale its robotaxi fleet, potentially reaching hundreds of thousands of vehicles by the end of 2027. However, consumer trust and adoption remain uncertain, with surveys showing a significant percentage of Americans being afraid to ride in self-driving vehicles. Umas then transitions to other topics, including a critique of MKBHD's review of the new Model Y performance, describing it as underwhelming. He criticizes the reviewer for not discussing the new suspension features and for preferring CarPlay/Android Auto to Tesla's software. He also reports that David Moss' record-setting FSD intervention-free streak ended at 12,961 miles due to challenging weather conditions on rural Wisconsin roads. Umas shares insights from an anonymous industry insider who argues that multi-sensor fusion (radar, LIDAR, etc.) is a "crutch" and that true mastery of computer vision through massive data and compute is the correct path to full self-driving. The insider suggests that adding radar and LIDAR does not meaningfully advance the car toward FSD. Umas touches on a Canada-China trade deal that will reduce tariffs on EVs and other agricultural items, allowing a limited number of Chinese EVs into Canada at a lower tariff rate. Reactions to this news are mixed, with some praising it as a benefit to consumers and others expressing concerns about the impact on the Canadian auto industry. Next is a discussion on J. Cal's comments about Optimus V3, claiming that Tesla is going to make a billion of those and that it is going to be the most transformative technology product ever made in the history of humanity. The host examines an AI generated promotional video related to the announcement. Umas believes that Tesla will surprise the world with its advancements in humanoid robots, focusing on building a generalized bot capable of doing everything humans can do. Umas covers the 2025 S&P Global Loyalty Awards, where Tesla won multiple awards, including overall Loyalty to Make and highest conquest percentage. He briefly discusses a new drone flyover in Austin showing Model Ys with covered wheels and stickers where the performance badge would be. The show reports that Nitsa granted Tesla a five-week extension to respond to an investigation into whether its cars violated traffic laws while on FSD. And that a person who set fire to a Tesla cybertruck dealership in Mesa, Arizona, was sentenced to five years in prison. He also states that the Model Y achieved the highest overall weighted score of any vehicle assessed by ANN CAP in 2025, a safety rating agency. Lastly, Tesla is now allowing people to reserve the Sky Pad, the upper level balcony area at the Tesla diner. The host closes by noting that Tesla stock closed the day at $437.50 and thanks his Patreon supporters.