以下是视频文字稿的总结，重点关注关键主题和预测： All-In Podcast 的主持人 Jason Calacanis、Chamath Palihapitiya、David Friedberg 和 David Sacks 开始了他们对 2026 年的预测节目，首先回顾了他们对 2025 年的预测，并讨论了 David Sacks 搬到德克萨斯州的事件。 主要话题围绕加利福尼亚州拟议的财富税（“掠夺税”）。 Friedberg 预测它甚至不会进入投票，Calacanis 也同意这一观点。 该小组讨论了这项税收如何将富人和公司赶出加利福尼亚州，可能会损害该州的长期预算。 他们特别指出该税收对超级投票权股份的惩罚性质。 主持人指出这是一个团结性问题，甚至连一些左派人士，如 Reid Hoffman，也认为它“疯狂”。 他们预测这将是今年一个主要话题。 谈话过渡到对 2026 年的政治预测。 Friedberg 认为美国民主社会主义者 (DSA) 将是最大的政治赢家，这反映了 MAGA 运动对共和党的控制。 Chamath 预计最大的赢家将是那些专注于打击联邦、州和地方各级浪费、欺诈和滥用行为的人。 David Sacks 大胆预测将出现“特朗普繁荣”，这得益于低通胀和 GDP 增长等强劲的经济消息，这将对政治认知产生积极影响。 Calacanis 则预测会出现“Mandami 时刻”，指的是民主党内日益高涨的社会主义运动，他声称特朗普的国际政策并未关注美国国内问题。 关于最大的政治输家，Sacks 预测中间派民主党人将成为这种趋势的受害者，甚至温和派民主党人也会进一步左倾，以避免来自党内的挑战。 Chamath 宣称门罗主义将是最大的输家，他认为它正在被更加干预主义的特朗普主义所取代。 Friedberg 认为科技行业将成为一个主要的输家，成为两边民粹主义的焦点。 Calacanis 同意并表示中间派民主党人将是今年最大的政治输家。 转到商业预测，Friedberg 强调华为和 polymarket 有可能成为赢家。 Chamath 自信地选择了自己和 Copper 作为关键赢家，因为这种金属在各种技术中都起着至关重要的作用，并且即将面临全球供应短缺。 Sacks 预计 IPO 将迎来强劲的一年，这将有助于特朗普的繁荣。 Calacanis 预测亚马逊将迎来重要的一年，这得益于他们通过机器人技术不断增长的自动化。 关于最大的商业输家，Friedberg 认为州政府将因浪费、欺诈、滥用和未实现的养老金负债的暴露而在融资方面陷入困境。 Chamath 认为，由于人工智能和自动化的进步，软件工业综合体 (SaaS) 将会萎缩，从而降低维护和迁移收入的重要性。 Jason 指出了年轻的白领工人，他们可能会被人工智能取代，特别是因为与人工智能对同样工作的需求相比，大学毕业生似乎没有接受足够的培训。 关于 2026 年最大的交易，Friedberg 预计编码助手将取得突破。 Chamath 预测知识产权许可并购将出现变通办法。 Jason 认为这将是一些大型并购，来自苹果、Ameida、微软或亚马逊等主要参与者收购 XAI、Mistro、Proplexity、Anthropic。 就反共识的观点而言，Friedberg 预测中东冲突，除了以色列和伊朗之外，将占据主导地位，海湾国家的权力动态将发生变化。 Sacks 认为，人工智能将*增加*对知识工作者的需求，他引用了杰文斯悖论。 Chamath 认为 SpaceX 将合并到特斯拉而不是进行 IPO，并且中央银行将转向他们可以在资产负债表上控制的加密模式。 Calacanis 预测中国和美国将解决他们的分歧。 讨论随后转向表现最佳和最差的资产。 Palihapitiya 认为是一篮子关键金属。 Sacks 预测科技领域的超级周期扩张将会表现良好，Jason 认为这也将使赌博投注应用程序更好。 对于表现最差的资产，Sacks 预测将会是加利福尼亚州的豪华房地产，Timothy 说会是石油，而 Calacanis 说会是美元，因为美国一直在累积债务。 关于最受期待的趋势，Friedberg 预计伊朗将成为一个独立的民主国家。 Chamath 说总统将会确保并购再次变得伟大。 他希望看到更多更大规模、覆盖范围更广的公司，占据全球市场。 最后，关于 2026 年最受期待的媒体。 Friedberg 认为是调查记者和普通公民新闻。 Sacks 讨论了审计视频，而 Jason 则以他对克里斯托弗·诺兰的《星际穿越》的热爱结束。

Here's a summarization of the video transcript, focusing on the key topics and predictions: The All-In Podcast's hosts, Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, David Friedberg, and David Sacks, kick off their prediction show for 2026, beginning with a recap of their 2025 predictions and discussing David Sacks' move to Texas. The main topic revolves around California's proposed wealth tax ("seizure tax"). Friedberg predicts it won't even make the ballot, a sentiment that Calacanis agrees with. The group discusses how this tax is pushing wealthy individuals and companies out of California, potentially harming the state's long-term budget. They specifically point out the punitive nature of the tax on super voting stock. The hosts note it's a uniting issue, with even some on the left, like Reid Hoffman, considering it "insane." They predict this will be a major topic throughout the year. The conversation transitions into political predictions for 2026. Friedberg thinks the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) will be the biggest political winner, mirroring the MAGA movement's takeover of the Republican party. Chamath anticipates the biggest winner will be whoever focuses on fighting waste, fraud, and abuse at the federal, state, and local level. David Sacks boldly predicts a "Trump boom," driven by strong economic news like low inflation and GDP growth, which will positively impact political perceptions. Calacanis counters with a prediction of the "mandami moment," referring to a rising socialist movement among Democrats, claiming the Trump's international policies are not focusing on American issues. For the biggest political loser, Sacks predicts centrist Democrats will be the victims of this trend, with even moderate Democrats shifting further left to avoid challenges from within their party. Chamath declares that the Monroe Doctrine will be the biggest loser, arguing it's being replaced by a more interventionist Trump doctrine. Friedberg posits that the tech industry will be a major loser, becoming a lightning rod for populism on both sides. Calacanis agrees and states that the centerist Democrats will be this year's biggest political loser. Switching to business predictions, Friedberg highlights Huawei and polymarket as potential winners. Chamath confidently picks himself and Copper as key winners due to the metal's critical role in various technologies and an impending global supply shortage. Sacks anticipates a strong IPO year, contributing to the Trump boom. Calacanis predicts a massive year for Amazon, driven by their growing automation through robotics. For the biggest business loser, Friedberg believes state governments will struggle with financing due to exposure of waste, fraud, abuse, and unrealized pension liabilities. Chamath argues that the software industrial complex (SaaS) will contract due to advancements in AI and automation, diminishing the importance of maintenance and migration revenues. Jason calls out young, white-collar workers, who may be replaced by AI, particularly as college graduates don't seem to be trained well enough compared to the need of AI for the same work. Regarding the biggest deal of 2026, Friedberg anticipates breakthroughs in coding assistants. Chamath predicts IP license M&A workarounds. Jason believes it will be some mega M&A, from a major players such as Apple, Ameida, Microsoft, or Amazon buying XAI, Mistro, Proplexity, Anthropic. In terms of contrarian beliefs, Friedberg predicts that conflicts in the Middle East, outside of Israel and Iran, will take over, with changing power dynamics in the Gulf states. Sacks believes AI will *increase* demand for knowledge workers, citing Jevons Paradox. Chamath thinks SpaceX will merge into Tesla rather than IPO and central banks will move into a cryptographic paradigm they can control on their balance sheets. Calacanis predicts China and America will resolve their differences. The discussion then shifts to best and worst-performing assets. Palihapitiya believes a basket of critical metals. Sacks predicts the expanding supercycle in tech will do well, which Jason believes with also make gambling wagering apps better. For worst performing asset, Sacks predicts that it will be the Californian Luxury real-estate, Timothy says it would be oil and Calacanis says it would be the US dollar, since the US keeps accumulating debt. On the topic of the most anticipated trend, Friedberg anticipates Iran becoming an independent democratic state. Chamath says it's that the president is going to make sure that M&A is great again. He wants to see many more bigger companies with bigger footprints, taking on global markets. Finally, the most anticipated media of 2026. Friedberg thinks investigative journalist as well as general citizen journalism. Sacks discusses auditing videos, and Jason ends with his love for Christopher Nolan's Odyssey.