Here's a summary of the podcast, including every news item discussed:
**1. Waymo Ojai Platform:**
* Waymo's next-gen platform, the "Ojai" (spelled OJAI, named after a California city), was revealed at CES.
* The vehicle is built by the Chinese company Zeekr (previously known as the Zeekr RT and made exclusively for Waymo).
* Waymo plans to deploy the Ojai across its markets, scaling to 20+ additional cities this year, in addition to the current five.
* The electric vans are imported from China into the US before being fitted with Waymo software, suite, and sensor array.
* The Ojai is equipped with cameras, radar, lidar, and dedicated cleaning mechanisms for sensors.
* It's built on an 800-volt architecture for faster charging, an upgrade from the Jaguar I-Pace.
* It features a 76 kWh LFP battery, with official US range still unknown.
* The Ojai will use 13 cameras, 4 lidars, 6 radars, and external audio receivers; this is less than half the cameras on the current Jaguar I-Pace.
* Waymo claims better overall performance despite fewer sensors, reducing cost and complexity.
* Sensor pods are designed to resist snow/ice collection and are equipped with heaters, wipers, and fluid.
* Waymo clarified the Ojai will not be subject to tariffs on Chinese EVs, likely due to its commercial use and being imported as knockdown kits.
* Waymo will also integrate the Hyundai Ioniq 5 into its fleet later this year.
* Waymo still has about 1,000 more Jaguar I-Paces on order, and current ones have significant duty cycles remaining.
* The Zeekr Ojai is similar to the consumer-available Zeekr Mix (starting around $40,000), but Waymo's sensor suite will increase the price, though it's expected to be under $100,000, offering a better cost profile than the I-Pace.
* The host remains skeptical of Waymo's path to profitability, linking it to Tesla's FSD rollout speed.
**2. Tesla Camera Placements on Validation Vehicles:**
* The host admitted being overly optimistic about Tesla's unsupervised FSD timelines in Austin.
* Images from Los Gatos showed Tesla validation vehicles (Model Y and Cybertruck) with cameras placed on the outside of the front bumper.
* These are likely for validation purposes, given the LiDAR rigs on the roof.
* The host doubts these camera placements will be added to the current fleet or offered as a retrofit.
* He speculates they *might* appear on a future, unknown SUV-type vehicle, but doubts Tesla will continue making vehicles not purpose-built for autonomy after the Roadster.
**3. Donut Labs All-Solid-State Battery:**
* Donut Labs announced a new all-solid-state battery with ambitious claims:
* 400 Wh/kg energy density (vs. Tesla's ~250 Wh/kg).
* 5-minute 0-100% fast charging.
* 100,000 cycles (vs. high-end lithium's ~5,000).
* No liquid electrolytes.
* Operating temperature range from -30°C to 100°C.
* Lower cost than lithium-ion and designed for scalable production.
* Donut Labs partnered with Verge Motorcycles to deploy this battery, with deliveries starting Q1 this year.
* They are also partnering with Watt EV for a lightweight EV skateboard platform, utilizing Donut Labs' known expertise in in-wheel electric motors.
* The cells are smartphone-sized and light, combined into 5 kWh power units (game console-sized) for vehicles like the Verge TS PRO.
* The host notes Donut Labs is a young company (approx. 2 years old), primarily known for in-wheel motors, not batteries, and is actively fundraising.
* Donut Labs claims the technology is fully validated in vehicles operating on public roads (Verge motorcycles).
* In October, Donut Labs invested in Nordic Nano, a sustainable tech leader.
* The host remains highly skeptical due to the company's limited battery track record, its young age, and the timing of the CES announcement while fundraising, but will monitor developments closely due to the technology's potential implications if proven true.
**4. Elon Musk Interview Highlights:**
* The host criticized interviewers Peter DiAmandis and Dave Blunden for repeatedly interrupting Elon.
* **Roadster:** Elon stated the Roadster will be "the best of the last of the human-driven cars." No new demo timeline was given, still "April 1st-ish."
* **2nm Chip Fab (Terrafab):** Elon bet Tesla would have a 2nm chip fab where he could smoke a cigar and eat a cheeseburger.
* The significant news is the commitment to a cutting-edge 2nm facility, implying a potential capital outlay of $10-20 billion.
* Elon is predicting a chip shortage in 3-5 years, hence the need for Tesla's own fab.
* The host estimates a 3-5 year timeline for the fab to be operational (1 year for site/permits, 1 year for construction, 1-2 years for test production).
* This would require securing ASML lithography machines.
* Elon reiterated "Terrafab is needed," suggesting a groundbreaking could happen by the end of this year.
* **Cortex 2:** Elon stated Cortex 2 will be "half a gig of what an operational middle next year."
* The host hopes for an update on Cortex 1's current size (estimated around 80 MW based on Q3 H100 equivalents, potentially scaling to 500 MW).
* Since FSD is not compute-limited, Cortex 2 is primarily expected for training Optimus.
* Having 500 additional MW online in the next six months would be a massive boost for Tesla's AI efforts.
* **Optimus Surgeon Prediction:** Elon predicted Optimus would be better than the best surgeons in three years "at scale," and that there would be more Optimus surgeons than all human surgeons on Earth.
* The host added this to his prediction tracker, stating he'd bet Optimus would perform "zero surgeries within the next three years."
* He acknowledges the potential of Optimus's hand and Cortex 2, suggesting a "slowly at first, then all at once" trajectory similar to FSD, but also notes Elon's history of overly optimistic timelines.
**5. Autonomous Vehicle Legislation and Tesla Robotaxi Rollout:**
* Alexandra "Tesla Boomer Mama" has been advocating for AV legislation.
* A hearing on motor vehicle safety and autonomous vehicle legislation is scheduled for January 13th.
* The host provided links for listeners to contact their representatives to support AV-friendly legislation.
* The hearing will address multiple bills, including proposals to increase NHTSA exemptions for AVs (vehicles without steering wheels/pedals) from 2,500 to 90,000 vehicles.
* The host questions the arbitrary 90,000 cap, suggesting if it's safe for that many, why not more. Tesla is the only company likely to approach such a limit.
* He doubts Elon's recent dinner with Trump directly influenced the hearing's timing.
* Bills aim to update FMVSS standards, which were not designed for fully autonomous vehicles.
* Timeline for legislation: a bullish scenario could see bills reconciled by July-August 2024; a bearish scenario suggests another 12-15 months, pushing it to Q1 2027.
* An example bill indicates a roadmap for L4/L5 AV deployment would be developed "not later than one year after the date of enactment," potentially late 2027 if enacted late 2026.
* Melanie Portillo, former Cruise Commercial Operations Manager, announced she joined Tesla as a Robotaxi Operations Manager for Dallas and Fort Worth, starting this month.
* Tesla is also hiring for Robotaxi Operations Managers in Dorao and Orlando, Florida.
* The role involves monitoring service trends, maintaining fleet uptime, improving service performance, championing safety, leading daily operations, and coordinating teams to support robotaxi program growth.
* The host believes these hires indicate the "floodgates should be opening" for Tesla's robotaxi program, with FSD v12.3, reasoning, and banish being key components.
**6. XAI Funding:**
* XAI officially raised $20 billion, exceeding its $15 billion target.
* Reports suggest this latest funding round values XAI at a $230 billion pre-money valuation.
* The host reiterates that Tesla should have invested in XAI when its valuation was much lower ($5-10 billion).
* XAI announced Grok 5 is in training and they are focused on launching new consumer and enterprise products leveraging Grok, Colossus, and X.
**7. Tesla Stock Performance:**
* Tesla stock closed the day at $431.36.
* The NDX (Nasdaq 100) was up 0.06%.
* Tesla's trading volume was 19% below average.