以下是播客内容的中文摘要，涵盖了讨论的每一条新闻： **1. Waymo Ojai 平台:** * Waymo的下一代平台“Ojai”（拼写OJAI，以加州一个城市命名）在CES上亮相。 * 该车由中国公司极氪（此前名为极氪RT，专为Waymo定制）制造。 * Waymo计划在所有市场部署Ojai，今年将在现有5个城市的基础上，再扩展到20多个城市。 * 这些电动厢式车从中国进口到美国，然后安装Waymo软件、套件和传感器阵列。 * Ojai配备了摄像头、雷达、激光雷达，以及专用的传感器清洁机制。 * 它采用800伏架构，实现更快的充电速度，是捷豹I-Pace的升级版。 * 搭载76千瓦时磷酸铁锂电池，官方美国续航里程尚未公布。 * Ojai将使用13个摄像头、4个激光雷达、6个雷达和外部音频接收器；这比目前的捷豹I-Pace上的摄像头数量少一半以上。 * Waymo声称，尽管传感器数量减少，但整体性能更好，降低了成本和复杂性。 * 传感器舱设计用于抵抗积雪/结冰，并配备加热器、雨刮器和清洁液。 * Waymo澄清，Ojai不会受到中国电动汽车关税的影响，这可能归因于其商业用途和以散件（knockdown kits）形式进口。 * Waymo还将在今年晚些时候将现代Ioniq 5整合到其车队中。 * Waymo仍有约1000辆捷豹I-Pace的订单，现有车辆仍有大量使用寿命。 * 极氪Ojai与市售的极氪Mix（起价约4万美元）类似，但Waymo的传感器套件会增加成本，不过预计售价仍将低于10万美元，比I-Pace具有更好的成本效益。 * 主持人对Waymo的盈利之路仍持怀疑态度，并将其与特斯拉FSD的推出速度联系起来。 **2. 特斯拉验证车辆上的摄像头位置:** * 主持人承认自己对特斯拉在奥斯汀推出的无监督FSD时间表过于乐观。 * 来自洛斯加托斯（Los Gatos）的图片显示，特斯拉的验证车（Model Y和Cybertruck）在车辆前保险杠外部安装了摄像头。 * 考虑到车顶上的激光雷达设备，这很可能是为了验证目的。 * 主持人怀疑这些摄像头安装位置是否会添加到现有车队或提供改装服务。 * 他推测它们 *可能* 会出现在未来的未知SUV车型上，但他怀疑特斯拉在Roadster之后还会继续生产非专为自动驾驶设计的车辆。 **3. Donut Labs 全固态电池:** * Donut Labs宣布推出一款新型全固态电池，并提出了宏伟的宣称： * 能量密度400瓦时/公斤（特斯拉约250瓦时/公斤）。 * 5分钟实现0-100%快速充电。 * 10万次循环（高端锂电池约5000次）。 * 无液体电解质。 * 工作温度范围-30°C至100°C。 * 成本低于锂离子电池，并为可扩展生产而设计。 * Donut Labs已与Verge Motorcycles合作部署这款电池，今年第一季度开始交付。 * 他们还与Watt EV合作开发轻型电动汽车滑板平台，利用Donut Labs在轮毂电机方面闻名的专业知识。 * 电芯尺寸如智能手机般大小且轻巧，可组合成5千瓦时的电源单元（游戏机大小），用于Verge TS PRO等车辆。 * 主持人指出，Donut Labs是一家年轻公司（约2年历史），主要以轮毂电机而非电池闻名，并且正在积极筹集资金。 * Donut Labs声称该技术已在公共道路上运行的车辆（Verge摩托车）中得到充分验证。 * 去年10月，Donut Labs投资了可持续技术领导者Nordic Nano。 * 由于该公司在电池方面的记录有限、成立时间短以及在筹资期间选择CES发布，主持人仍持高度怀疑态度，但由于该技术一旦被证实可能带来的影响，他将密切关注其发展。 **4. 埃隆·马斯克采访亮点:** * 主持人批评采访者Peter DiAmandis和Dave Blunden反复打断埃隆。 * **Roadster:** 埃隆表示Roadster将是“人类驾驶汽车的巅峰之作和绝唱”。没有给出新的演示时间表，仍然是“大约4月1日”。 * **2纳米芯片工厂 (Terrafab):** 埃隆打赌特斯拉将拥有一座2纳米芯片工厂，他可以在那里抽雪茄、吃芝士汉堡。 * 重要的消息是致力于建设一个尖端的2纳米设施，这意味着可能需要100-200亿美元的资本支出。 * 埃隆预测3-5年后将出现芯片短缺，因此特斯拉需要自己的工厂。 * 主持人估计该工厂投入运营需要3-5年时间（1年用于选址/许可，1年用于建设，1-2年用于试生产）。 * 这将需要获得ASML光刻机。 * 埃隆重申“Terrafab是必需的”，暗示今年年底前可能破土动工。 * **Cortex 2:** 埃隆表示Cortex 2将是“明年年中投入运营时，将提供一半的吉瓦级算力。” (或“明年年中投入运营时，将提供相当于半吉瓦的算力。”) * 主持人希望更新Cortex 1的当前规模（根据第三季度H100等效算力估计约为80兆瓦，可能扩展到500兆瓦）。 * 由于FSD不受算力限制，Cortex 2主要预期用于训练擎天柱（Optimus）。 * 在未来六个月内再增加500兆瓦的算力，将对特斯拉的AI工作产生巨大推动。 * **擎天柱外科医生预测:** 埃隆预测，擎天柱将在三年内“规模化地”超越最优秀的外科医生，并且擎天柱外科医生的数量将超过地球上所有人类外科医生。 * 主持人将此加入自己的预测追踪器，称他打赌擎天柱“在未来三年内不会进行任何手术”。 * 他承认擎天柱的手和Cortex 2的潜力，暗示其发展轨迹可能类似于FSD，即“先慢后快，然后突然爆发”，但也指出埃隆过去过于乐观的时间表。 **5. 自动驾驶汽车立法和特斯拉Robotaxi推出:** * 亚历山德拉“特斯拉婴儿潮妈妈”一直在倡导自动驾驶汽车立法。 * 关于机动车安全和自动驾驶汽车立法的听证会定于1月13日举行。 * 主持人为听众提供了联系其代表以支持自动驾驶友好立法的链接。 * 听证会将讨论多项法案，包括提议增加NHTSA（美国国家公路交通安全管理局）对自动驾驶汽车（无方向盘/踏板的车辆）豁免数量的法案，从2500辆增加到90000辆。 * 主持人质疑90000辆的任意上限，认为如果这么多是安全的，为什么不多一些。特斯拉是唯一可能接近这一限制的公司。 * 他怀疑埃隆最近与特朗普的晚餐是否直接影响了听证会的时间安排。 * 法案旨在更新FMVSS（联邦机动车安全标准），这些标准并非为完全自动驾驶汽车设计。 * 立法时间表：乐观情景下，法案可能在2024年7月至8月间通过；悲观情景下，可能还需要12-15个月，推迟到2027年第一季度。 * 一项示例法案表明，L4/L5自动驾驶汽车部署路线图将在“颁布日期起不迟于一年”内制定，如果2026年底颁布，可能要到2027年末。 * 前Cruise商业运营经理Melanie Portillo宣布，她本月起加入特斯拉，担任达拉斯和沃斯堡地区的Robotaxi运营经理。 * 特斯拉还在佛罗里达州的多拉奥和奥兰多招聘Robotaxi运营经理。 * 该职位职责包括监控服务趋势、维护车队正常运行时间、提高服务性能、倡导安全、领导日常运营，以及协调团队以支持Robotaxi项目的增长。 * 主持人认为这些招聘表明特斯拉的Robotaxi项目“大门将开”，其中FSD v12.3、推理（reasoning）和消除障碍（banish）是关键组成部分。 **6. XAI 融资:** * XAI官方宣布已筹集200亿美元，超出了其150亿美元的目标。 * 报告显示，最新一轮融资使XAI的投前估值达到2300亿美元。 * 主持人重申特斯拉本应在XAI估值较低时（50-100亿美元）投资。 * XAI宣布Grok 5正在训练中，他们正致力于利用Grok、Colossus和X推出新的消费者和企业产品。 **7. 特斯拉股票表现:** * 特斯拉股票当天收盘价为431.36美元。 * 纳斯达克100指数（NDX）上涨0.06%。 * 交易量比平均水平低19%。

Here's a summary of the podcast, including every news item discussed: **1. Waymo Ojai Platform:** * Waymo's next-gen platform, the "Ojai" (spelled OJAI, named after a California city), was revealed at CES. * The vehicle is built by the Chinese company Zeekr (previously known as the Zeekr RT and made exclusively for Waymo). * Waymo plans to deploy the Ojai across its markets, scaling to 20+ additional cities this year, in addition to the current five. * The electric vans are imported from China into the US before being fitted with Waymo software, suite, and sensor array. * The Ojai is equipped with cameras, radar, lidar, and dedicated cleaning mechanisms for sensors. * It's built on an 800-volt architecture for faster charging, an upgrade from the Jaguar I-Pace. * It features a 76 kWh LFP battery, with official US range still unknown. * The Ojai will use 13 cameras, 4 lidars, 6 radars, and external audio receivers; this is less than half the cameras on the current Jaguar I-Pace. * Waymo claims better overall performance despite fewer sensors, reducing cost and complexity. * Sensor pods are designed to resist snow/ice collection and are equipped with heaters, wipers, and fluid. * Waymo clarified the Ojai will not be subject to tariffs on Chinese EVs, likely due to its commercial use and being imported as knockdown kits. * Waymo will also integrate the Hyundai Ioniq 5 into its fleet later this year. * Waymo still has about 1,000 more Jaguar I-Paces on order, and current ones have significant duty cycles remaining. * The Zeekr Ojai is similar to the consumer-available Zeekr Mix (starting around $40,000), but Waymo's sensor suite will increase the price, though it's expected to be under $100,000, offering a better cost profile than the I-Pace. * The host remains skeptical of Waymo's path to profitability, linking it to Tesla's FSD rollout speed. **2. Tesla Camera Placements on Validation Vehicles:** * The host admitted being overly optimistic about Tesla's unsupervised FSD timelines in Austin. * Images from Los Gatos showed Tesla validation vehicles (Model Y and Cybertruck) with cameras placed on the outside of the front bumper. * These are likely for validation purposes, given the LiDAR rigs on the roof. * The host doubts these camera placements will be added to the current fleet or offered as a retrofit. * He speculates they *might* appear on a future, unknown SUV-type vehicle, but doubts Tesla will continue making vehicles not purpose-built for autonomy after the Roadster. **3. Donut Labs All-Solid-State Battery:** * Donut Labs announced a new all-solid-state battery with ambitious claims: * 400 Wh/kg energy density (vs. Tesla's ~250 Wh/kg). * 5-minute 0-100% fast charging. * 100,000 cycles (vs. high-end lithium's ~5,000). * No liquid electrolytes. * Operating temperature range from -30°C to 100°C. * Lower cost than lithium-ion and designed for scalable production. * Donut Labs partnered with Verge Motorcycles to deploy this battery, with deliveries starting Q1 this year. * They are also partnering with Watt EV for a lightweight EV skateboard platform, utilizing Donut Labs' known expertise in in-wheel electric motors. * The cells are smartphone-sized and light, combined into 5 kWh power units (game console-sized) for vehicles like the Verge TS PRO. * The host notes Donut Labs is a young company (approx. 2 years old), primarily known for in-wheel motors, not batteries, and is actively fundraising. * Donut Labs claims the technology is fully validated in vehicles operating on public roads (Verge motorcycles). * In October, Donut Labs invested in Nordic Nano, a sustainable tech leader. * The host remains highly skeptical due to the company's limited battery track record, its young age, and the timing of the CES announcement while fundraising, but will monitor developments closely due to the technology's potential implications if proven true. **4. Elon Musk Interview Highlights:** * The host criticized interviewers Peter DiAmandis and Dave Blunden for repeatedly interrupting Elon. * **Roadster:** Elon stated the Roadster will be "the best of the last of the human-driven cars." No new demo timeline was given, still "April 1st-ish." * **2nm Chip Fab (Terrafab):** Elon bet Tesla would have a 2nm chip fab where he could smoke a cigar and eat a cheeseburger. * The significant news is the commitment to a cutting-edge 2nm facility, implying a potential capital outlay of $10-20 billion. * Elon is predicting a chip shortage in 3-5 years, hence the need for Tesla's own fab. * The host estimates a 3-5 year timeline for the fab to be operational (1 year for site/permits, 1 year for construction, 1-2 years for test production). * This would require securing ASML lithography machines. * Elon reiterated "Terrafab is needed," suggesting a groundbreaking could happen by the end of this year. * **Cortex 2:** Elon stated Cortex 2 will be "half a gig of what an operational middle next year." * The host hopes for an update on Cortex 1's current size (estimated around 80 MW based on Q3 H100 equivalents, potentially scaling to 500 MW). * Since FSD is not compute-limited, Cortex 2 is primarily expected for training Optimus. * Having 500 additional MW online in the next six months would be a massive boost for Tesla's AI efforts. * **Optimus Surgeon Prediction:** Elon predicted Optimus would be better than the best surgeons in three years "at scale," and that there would be more Optimus surgeons than all human surgeons on Earth. * The host added this to his prediction tracker, stating he'd bet Optimus would perform "zero surgeries within the next three years." * He acknowledges the potential of Optimus's hand and Cortex 2, suggesting a "slowly at first, then all at once" trajectory similar to FSD, but also notes Elon's history of overly optimistic timelines. **5. Autonomous Vehicle Legislation and Tesla Robotaxi Rollout:** * Alexandra "Tesla Boomer Mama" has been advocating for AV legislation. * A hearing on motor vehicle safety and autonomous vehicle legislation is scheduled for January 13th. * The host provided links for listeners to contact their representatives to support AV-friendly legislation. * The hearing will address multiple bills, including proposals to increase NHTSA exemptions for AVs (vehicles without steering wheels/pedals) from 2,500 to 90,000 vehicles. * The host questions the arbitrary 90,000 cap, suggesting if it's safe for that many, why not more. Tesla is the only company likely to approach such a limit. * He doubts Elon's recent dinner with Trump directly influenced the hearing's timing. * Bills aim to update FMVSS standards, which were not designed for fully autonomous vehicles. * Timeline for legislation: a bullish scenario could see bills reconciled by July-August 2024; a bearish scenario suggests another 12-15 months, pushing it to Q1 2027. * An example bill indicates a roadmap for L4/L5 AV deployment would be developed "not later than one year after the date of enactment," potentially late 2027 if enacted late 2026. * Melanie Portillo, former Cruise Commercial Operations Manager, announced she joined Tesla as a Robotaxi Operations Manager for Dallas and Fort Worth, starting this month. * Tesla is also hiring for Robotaxi Operations Managers in Dorao and Orlando, Florida. * The role involves monitoring service trends, maintaining fleet uptime, improving service performance, championing safety, leading daily operations, and coordinating teams to support robotaxi program growth. * The host believes these hires indicate the "floodgates should be opening" for Tesla's robotaxi program, with FSD v12.3, reasoning, and banish being key components. **6. XAI Funding:** * XAI officially raised $20 billion, exceeding its $15 billion target. * Reports suggest this latest funding round values XAI at a $230 billion pre-money valuation. * The host reiterates that Tesla should have invested in XAI when its valuation was much lower ($5-10 billion). * XAI announced Grok 5 is in training and they are focused on launching new consumer and enterprise products leveraging Grok, Colossus, and X. **7. Tesla Stock Performance:** * Tesla stock closed the day at $431.36. * The NDX (Nasdaq 100) was up 0.06%. * Tesla's trading volume was 19% below average.