好的，这是将内容翻译成中文： 本周的“市场周报”重点剖析了近期来自美国的如潮经济数据，特别是就业、通货膨胀（消费者价格指数CPI）和零售销售，并考察了日本央行(BOJ)持续加息的影响。 演讲者首先承认了市场环境的“动荡不安”以及缺乏许多人预期的强劲的圣诞行情。与关注前景（将在下周讨论）不同，这次讨论深入研究了一系列重要的经济数据，这些数据是在政府停摆影响数据收集导致一段时间的“盲飞”之后发布的。 10月和11月的就业数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面。10月出现了大量的就业岗位流失，而11月则出现了可观的反弹。将这两个月的数据平均来看，结果并不令人印象深刻。失业率小幅上升至4.6%，略高于美联储的预测中值。这种增长似乎部分归因于劳动力参与率的提高。尽管演讲者指出，工资增速放缓，即劳动力的“价格”，非常明显。进一步的分析显示，整体就业岗位流失主要受到政府岗位减少的影响，这源于司法部的一项买断计划，鼓励政府雇员辞职。聚焦私营部门就业增长，演讲者认为可能出现了一个转折点，私营部门的就业增长呈现上升趋势。 由于美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 因政府停摆而难以收集数据，CPI 数据低于预期，这“震惊了所有人”。劳工统计局的工作人员不得不假设 11 月份的价格，这些价格可能由于季节性假日折扣而较低。鉴于数据收集方面的挑战以及可能出现的扭曲假设（尤其是在租金方面），这份CPI数据的可靠性受到了质疑。报告还指出，特朗普总统此前曾就此事向公众发表过正式讲话。演讲者推测，CPI数据是否可能受到影响，从而描绘出一幅更有利的前景，特别是考虑到最近对承受能力和通货膨胀的政治关注。下一个不受政府停摆影响的CPI数据发布，对于验证这些担忧至关重要。 剔除汽车销售的零售销售（对照组）显示出令人惊讶的强劲增长，表明消费支出处于健康水平。虽然这似乎暗示着货币政策可能会更容易实施，但市场并没有做出显著反应。事实上，美联储官员约翰·威廉姆斯驳斥了这些数据，理由是政府停摆导致的数据失真。演讲者指出，威廉姆斯认为“真实的”失业率更有可能达到4.5%（更接近美联储的预测中值），CPI可能比公布的数据低0.1%。 演讲者随后简要谈到了围绕潜在新任美联储主席的政治闹剧。曾经的热门人选凯文·哈塞特的获选几率已经下降，而凯文·沃尔什和州长沃勒等其他候选人正在获得更多支持。来自政府内部的反对，特别是来自财政部长姆努钦的反对，似乎正在促成这种转变。 第二个主要议题是日本央行(BOJ)持续加息。10年期日本国债(JGB)收益率一直在稳步上升，反映出日本央行正在收紧货币政策。虽然仍处于较低水平（0.75%），但政策利率仍然与通货膨胀相差甚远。日本的通货膨胀实际上高于美国。 演讲者强调了日本央行透明的沟通，强调了加息的理由：地缘政治不确定性降低，与美国的贸易关系改善，工资上涨和高通胀。他们还指出实际利率仍然很低。虽然加息，但他们的政策仍然非常宽松。尽管如此，日元兑美元汇率已经走弱。日本投资者目前正从加息中获益良多。 讨论探讨了日本央行行动可能对全球市场产生的影响。一种潜在的情况是，日本收益率的上升可能会拉高全球收益率，从而对美国股市产生负面影响。另一个担忧是日元套利交易可能出现崩溃，类似于去年出现的波动。演讲者总结说，日本尚未收获几十年来的最高利率。 演讲者最后表示，货币政策可能出现政治转变，我们将拭目以待。

This week's "Markets Weekly" focused on dissecting the recent deluge of economic data from the US, specifically jobs, inflation (CPI), and retail sales, and examining the implications of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) continued interest rate hikes. The speaker began by acknowledging the "choppy" market conditions and the lack of a strong Santa Claus rally that many expected. Instead of focusing on the outlook, which will be covered next week, the discussion delved into the significant economic data released after a period of "flying blind" due to government shutdowns impacting data collection. The jobs data for October and November presented a mixed picture. October saw a substantial job loss, while November witnessed a decent rebound. Averaging the two months yielded a less impressive result. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%, slightly above the Fed's median forecast. This increase appeared partly attributable to a rising labor force participation rate. Although the speaker noted that wage deceleration, the "price" of labor, is very evident. Further analysis revealed that the headline job losses were skewed by a decline in government jobs, stemming from a DOJ buyout program encouraging government employees to resign. Focusing on private sector job growth, the speaker suggested a potential turning point, with private sector job growth trending higher. The CPI data "shocked everyone" by coming in lower than expected, driven lower because the BLS had issues collecting data because of the government shutdowns. BLS staff had to assume prices in November, which might have been lower due to seasonal holiday discounts. The reliability of this CPI data was questioned, given the data collection challenges and the potential for distorted assumptions, particularly regarding rents. It was also noted that President Trump previously had an official address to the public on this matter. The speaker speculated whether the CPI data could have been influenced to paint a more favorable picture, especially considering the recent political attention to affordability and inflation. The next CPI print, not affected by the government shutdown, will be critical to validate these concerns. Retail sales, excluding auto sales (control group), showed surprisingly strong growth, indicating a healthy level of consumer spending. While seemingly suggesting a path for easier monetary policy, the market didn't react significantly. In fact, Fed official John Williams dismissed the data prints, citing the data distortions caused by the government shutdown. The speaker noted how Williams suggested that the "real" unemployment was more likely to be 4.5% (closer to the median estimate from the Fed) and the CPI may be 0.1% lower than the print. The speaker then briefly touched on the political drama surrounding the potential new Fed Chair. Kevin Hasset, once the frontrunner, has seen his odds decline, with other candidates like Kevin Walsh and Governor Waller gaining traction. Opposition from within the administration, particularly from Secretary Mnuchin, appears to be contributing to this shift. The second major topic addressed was the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) continued interest rate hikes. The 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has been steadily rising, reflecting the BOJ's tightening monetary policy. While still low at 0.75%, the policy rate is still very far away from inflation. Inflation in Japan is actually higher than the United States. The speaker highlighted the BOJ's transparent communication, emphasizing the rationale for hiking rates: reduced geopolitical uncertainty, improved trade relations with the US, rising wages, and high inflation. They also note that Real Interest Rates remain low. While hiking, their policy is still very easy. Despite these hikes, the yen has weakened against the dollar. Japanese investors are currently benefiting greatly from interest rate hikes. The discussion explored the potential global market impact of the BOJ's actions. One potential scenario is that rising Japanese yields could drag up global yields, negatively impacting US equities. Another concern is a potential blow-up of the yen carry trade, similar to the volatility seen last year. The speaker concludes that Japan has not harvested the multi-decade high rates. The speaker concluded by stating that there may be a political shift on monetary policy and that we will see if that plays out.