CarDealershipGuy - The Real Reason EV Demand Feels "Stuck" | Mike Murphy on Daily Dealer Live
发布时间:2025-12-18 00:19:03
原节目
以下是内容的中文翻译:
电动汽车普及协会(EVs for All America)创始人、共和党策略师迈克·墨菲(Mike Murphy)对电动汽车(EV)市场提出了引人注目且往往是独到的见解。他强调了中国汽车产业主导地位带来的严峻地缘政治和经济挑战,并批评了美国汽车业因政治两极分化而自食其果的弊病。
墨菲详细阐述了中国惊人的汽车产业规模,去年生产了3000万辆汽车,而美国仅生产了1000万辆,使中国成为全球领先的汽车制造商和出口国。尽管去年有9万辆中国制造的汽车(贴牌车型)在美国销售,但墨菲警告称,存在着更大范围的“地缘政治威胁”。他认为,中国的战略是通过用廉价汽车充斥市场,利用巨大的工资差距(中国汽车工人时薪9美元,而美国汽车汽车工人联合会(UAW)工人包含福利后时薪80美元),来“瓦解我们的地缘政治对手的工业基础”。他坚称,如果美国未能有效竞争,就有可能被“吞噬”,并断言纯粹的贸易保护主义只会导致“劣质产品”。
墨菲自称是“底特律的机械狂人”,他支持电动汽车的立场植根于实际利益和经济必然性,而不仅仅是“绿色”意识形态。他对电动汽车的政治化感到惋惜,将其追溯到早期的“道德姿态”(例如日产聆风(Nissan Leaf)的“白色北极熊”广告),这疏远了高达40%的潜在“中右翼”消费者。他的民意调查显示,当电动汽车基于维护成本更低、每年平均节省2000美元汽油费以及驾驶乐趣等特点进行推广时,需求会显著增加。
墨菲批评美国政府在电动汽车方面的政策前后不一,形容其为“精神分裂般的”。他认为,前总统特朗普的关税虽然旨在提振美国制造业,但却矛盾地损害了整合的北美汽车产业,并让中国通过积极的补贴“横扫市场”。这种不稳定性,加上不断变化的里程标准和激励措施,使得汽车制造商难以做出长期的资本支出决策。他指出,近期美国汽车制造业的大部分投资都投入了电动汽车生产,放弃这一方向将有损国家工业能力。他引用了美国二战时期强大的生产能力与目前对其他国家重工业的依赖进行对比。
墨菲认识到经销商因预期服务收入损失(电动汽车维护需求较少)和消费者对充电的焦虑而产生的顾虑,为此提出了创新解决方案。他建议为转向电动汽车的消费者提供加州式的3500美元“换购补贴”,使其更具经济性并降低感知风险。至关重要的是,他主张对每售出一辆新车或二手电动汽车,直接向经销商支付2500美元的“销售奖金”,以弥补服务收入损失并激励销售人员。此外,他强调需要投资多户住宅(公寓和共管公寓)充电基础设施,这将开启一个巨大的未开发市场,仅加州就有800万潜在买家。
对于原始设备制造商(OEM)和经销商,墨菲建议进行战略转变:
1. **营销:** 推销电动汽车的优点和驾驶体验,摆脱“绿色”教条。
2. **沉浸式体验:** 为经销商配备电动汽车供员工驾驶,并向潜在买家提供延长的试驾或周末借用服务。
3. **精准销售:** 将精力集中在电动汽车普及率最高且社会网络已形成接受度的15个州。
4. **政策倡导:** 推动一致、实用的补贴政策以及对充电基础设施的支持,尤其是针对多户住宅。
墨菲警告称,中国的长期目标是到2035年实现全球制造业增加值47%的份额,这可能潜在地削弱对国家安全至关重要的美国工业基础。他总结道,美国若要有效竞争,必须克服政治分歧,实施一致的产业政策,并利用美国创新来创造卓越产品,而不是仅仅依靠贸易保护主义来对抗一个有战略动机的对手。
Mike Murphy, founder of EVs for All America and a Republican strategist, offers a compelling and often contrarian view on the electric vehicle (EV) market. He highlights the critical geopolitical and economic challenges posed by China's automotive dominance and criticizes the self-inflicted wounds of political polarization in the U.S. auto industry.
Murphy details China's staggering automotive scale, producing 30 million vehicles last year compared to America's 10 million, making them the world's leading auto manufacturer and exporter. While 90,000 Chinese-made cars (rebadged models) were sold in the U.S. last year, Murphy warns of a much larger "geopolitical threat." He argues China's strategy is to "de-industrialize our geopolitical opponents" by flooding markets with cheap cars, benefiting from a massive wage disparity (Chinese auto workers earning $9/hour versus UAW workers at $80/hour with benefits). The U.S., he contends, risks being "swallowed up" if it fails to compete, asserting that pure protectionism will only lead to "shitty products."
A self-proclaimed "wrench head from Detroit," Murphy's pro-EV stance is rooted in practical benefits and economic necessity, not just "green" ideology. He laments the politicization of EVs, tracing it back to early "virtue signaling" (e.g., the Nissan Leaf's "white polar bear" ad), which alienated a significant 40% of potential "right-to-center" consumers. His polling indicates that when EVs are marketed based on attributes like lower maintenance, saving an average of $2,000 annually on gas, and being fun to drive, demand increases significantly.
Murphy criticizes the inconsistent U.S. government policy regarding EVs, describing it as "schizophrenic." He argues that former President Trump's tariffs, while aimed at boosting U.S. manufacturing, paradoxically harm the integrated North American auto industry and allow China to "run the table" through aggressive subsidies. This instability, with shifting mileage standards and incentives, makes it difficult for automakers to make long-term capital expenditure decisions. He notes that much of the recent U.S. auto manufacturing investment has been in EV production, and abandoning this would be detrimental to national industrial capability, citing the U.S.'s historical production might in WWII versus its current reliance on others for heavy manufacturing.
Acknowledging dealers' hesitations due to perceived loss of service revenue (EVs require less maintenance) and consumer anxiety about charging, Murphy proposes innovative solutions. He suggests a California-style "Conquest credit" of $3,500 for consumers switching to an EV, making them more affordable and reducing perceived risk. Crucially, he advocates for a $2,500 "spiff" paid directly to dealers for every new or used EV sold, compensating for lost service revenue and motivating salespeople. Furthermore, he emphasizes the need for investment in multi-family charging infrastructure (apartment and condo buildings), which would unlock a vast untapped market, citing 8 million potential buyers in California alone.
For OEMs and dealers, Murphy advises a strategic shift:
1. **Marketing:** Sell EV attributes and driving experience, moving away from "green" dogma.
2. **Immersive Experience:** Equip dealerships with EVs for staff to drive, and offer extended test drives or weekend loans to potential buyers.
3. **Targeted Sales:** Focus efforts on the 15 states where EV adoption is highest and social networks already reinforce acceptance.
4. **Policy Advocacy:** Push for consistent, practical subsidies and support for charging infrastructure, particularly for multi-family dwellings.
Murphy warns that China's long-term goal is to achieve 47% of global value-added manufacturing by 2035, potentially undermining the U.S. industrial base essential for national security. He concludes that for the U.S. to compete effectively, it must overcome political divisions, implement consistent industrial policy, and leverage American innovation to create superior products, rather than relying solely on protectionism against a strategically motivated adversary.