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Electrified - Starlink Native in Teslas? / FSD Regulatory Change / Time To Talk About Rivian ⚡️

发布时间:2025-12-13 01:48:37   原节目
以下是Electrified播客节目的内容摘要,涵盖了所有讨论的新闻: 主持人 Dylan Lumis 首先感谢了新赞助人 Jeffrey H.,并解释说由于他眼睛里长了麦粒肿,本期节目会比较短。 **1. 特斯拉的“智能车顶”专利:** * 一项新公布(尚未获批)的特斯拉专利描述了一种“智能车顶”,它采用了射频(RF)透明的聚合物材料(例如聚碳酸酯、ABS、ASA)。 * 这种设计使得顶部电气模块和组件可以直接集成到车顶结构中,克服了传统金属/玻璃车顶在射频传输/接收方面的限制。 * 聚合物车顶允许在水平表面上预组装组件,从而实现全面自动化,并消除了复杂、劳动密集型的顶部安装工作,这与特斯拉的“一体化制造方法”(unboxed method)理念相符。 * 其优点包括卓越的隔音效果、能量吸收的灵活性(更薄的结构,更大的头部空间)、减轻重量、抗凹陷、模制定位销、更清晰的形状可塑性以及耐腐蚀性。它还允许在树脂中添加着色剂,从而无需后期喷漆。 * **星链(Starlink)澄清:** Dylan 对该专利是否意味着全面集成星链表示怀疑。该专利明确提及的是**全球导航卫星系统(GNSS)**组件(如GPS),而非宽带互联网或低轨卫星星座。专利中*未*提及星链。拟议的电子模块包括GNSS卫星组件、卫星天线、LTE组件、LTE天线、扬声器、风扇、连接卡、处理器、蓝牙、麦克风、地图灯和危险警告开关。该解决方案似乎是为低带宽天线设计的,可能与埃隆2022年关于星链V2直接向移动设备传输紧急呼叫/短信的声明相符,但并非完整的宽带互联网。小型冷却风扇也表明它不足以支持星链终端。尽管它不是完整的星链,但它仍然提供了创新,例如避免了笨重的外部鲨鱼鳍天线罩。 **2. 埃隆的“融合”愿景:** * 埃隆强调特斯拉AI芯片、SpaceX卫星、XAI的GROQ以及太空中的AI数据中心之间的“融合”是一个多年的项目。 * 他指出SpaceX在轨卫星数量超过世界其他地区总和。 * 星链V3(20千瓦)将于明年第四季度大规模发射,通过将质量转移到太阳能电池阵列/散热器上,而不是大型相控阵天线,可扩展到100千瓦以上用于AI计算。 * 埃隆声称AI卫星比星链V3“更容易”设计。 * Farzad概述了一个时间线:特斯拉AI-7推理芯片 -> XAI购买 -> XAI将AI-7放入星链AI卫星 -> 星舰送入轨道 -> 特斯拉太阳能供电 -> XAI用于为所有设备(包括特斯拉汽车和机器人)的GROQ提供动力。他指出太空法规不如地球上严格。 * Dylan 建议特斯拉投资者了解这一未来,因为关注点将超越汽车毛利率。 **3. SpaceX IPO与火星资金:** * Phil Beisel 建议通过IPO为扩展星链和AI筹集资金对资助火星至关重要,埃隆对此表示肯定,说“是的”。 **4. 特朗普的AI行政命令(EO):** * 特朗普签署了一项行政命令,旨在建立新的联邦AI框架。Dylan 指出行政命令不是永久性的。 * 该行政命令主要目的是授权联邦机构对抗各州实施“繁重”的AI法规,而非建立具体的联邦框架。 * 它要求在30天内成立一个由司法部长领导的AI诉讼工作组,以挑战不一致的州AI法律,并要求商务部在90天内评估“繁重”的州法律。 * 预计将对不遵守的州施加州资金限制,但儿童安全是一个例外,联邦法律不会凌驾于州的决定之上。 * **对特斯拉的影响:** 这可能会挑战加州SB 53等州法律(该法案要求高风险AI系统,如FSD,制定具体的安全计划),可能加速特斯拉自动驾驶出租车在这些州的推广。 * 当天特斯拉股价表现显著优于大盘(上涨2.7%,而纳斯达克下跌1.7%),该行政命令被认为是主要驱动因素。 **5. FSD进展更新:** * **Chuck Cook:** FSD v14“真的、真的、真的很好”,在大多数驾驶中都可以坐在后座。 * **Alex(德国):** 对v14的试驾使他宣布“特斯拉已经解决了自动驾驶问题”。 * **Jeremy LaFiber:** 最近购买了一辆Model X,也表示“特斯拉已经解决了完全自动驾驶问题”。 * **CarbineCut(慕尼黑):** FSD“已为欧洲做好准备”,能够超过欧盟的安全要求,在高峰时段零干预。 * 所有人的目光都集中在2026年2月的RDW演示上。 **6. SpaceX IPO面向特斯拉投资者(推测):** * Phil Beisel 提出了埃隆可能向特斯拉散户投资者提供早期/折扣SpaceX股票的四种方式,包括专门为他们预留5-10%的IPO股份。埃隆点赞了该帖子,表明有兴趣,但无法保证。 **7. 埃隆的时间分配:** * 埃隆重申,AI5和AI6工程是他时间投入最大的地方,AI5“不错”,AI6“非常棒”。 **8. 特斯拉Power Share更新:** * Powerwall与车辆进行Power Share的功能推迟到2026年中。 * 挑战包括两个电网形成设备(汽车和Powerwall)之间复杂的通信、多代硬件,以及严格的电网安全认证。 * 特斯拉已向CyberTruck客户和纯太阳能用户提供了Power Share功能。团队致力于寻找解决方案并透明地公布时间。 **9. 面向欧洲的Model YL:** * 一项未经证实报道(援引一个X账号)称,中国制造的Model Y长续航版已获得欧洲型式认证,可能于2026年第一季度在欧洲发布。 **10. 日产的自动驾驶推进:** * 日产正在开发一种“手离方向盘,眼看前方”的ProPilot系统,与英国初创公司Wave(AI驱动的摄像头视觉)合作。 * 目标在2028年初推出,定价低于4000美元(不到特斯拉8000美元FSD的一半)。 * 日产正面临25年来最严重的金融危机。Dylan 指出特斯拉到2028年可能已经实现规模化。 **11. Rivian自动驾驶与AI日:** * **背景:** 特斯拉用了12年才盈利;成立4年的Rivian正在烧钱。Rivian正在追求自研自动驾驶和AI芯片,类似于特斯拉的垂直整合。Dylan 指出Rivian落后特斯拉5-10年,并享有“后发优势”,但承认这是一场争夺第二名的竞赛。 * **激光雷达决定:** Rivian将包含前置激光雷达,这一决定因潜在的传感器融合问题受到特斯拉追随者批评。Dylan 将激光雷达比作“保龄球馆的护板”——短期提升,但可能是长期的拐杖,无法使汽车变得“智能”。 * **Rivian的方法:** Rivian将所有传感器数据输入到基于融合数据训练的AI模型(RAP)中,允许AI决定优先使用哪个传感器。这不同于特斯拉早期基于规则的传感器融合。 * **纯视觉方案的批判:** Dylan 认为其他公司没有时间、数据或资源让纯视觉方案奏效,而不是说它在各种条件下都无法奏效。 * **疑虑:** 鉴于其有限的车队规模、数据和财政资源,Dylan 对Rivian的AI平台表示怀疑。 * **为何不授权FSD?** Dylan 解释说特斯拉只会大规模授权FSD(Rivian每年销量不足5万辆)。此外,公司追求内部解决方案是为了获得估值溢价。 * **专家反应:** James Dauma 表达了“捂脸”表情,表示“自动驾驶出租车是一个软件问题……再多的硬件也无法替代好的软件。”他称Rivian的“圣诞树架构”很奇怪,质疑为什么需要添加额外的传感器来弥补糟糕的软件。埃隆以“一语中的”的表情回应。 * **自动驾驶结论:** Dylan 认为其他公司缺乏特斯拉的软件/AI专业知识,并且不愿承担纯视觉方案的风险,这需要埃隆独特的信念。Rivian的Autonomous+套件售价2500美元或每月50美元。 * **Rivian AI助手:** Rivian与谷歌合作,展示了一款具有智能体集成功能的AI定义汽车。语音助手可以处理气候、导航、消息和未来的第三方应用的自然语言命令,甚至可以询问目的地附近的餐厅选项并将其短信发送给联系人。这将于2026年初在R1车型上推出,与特斯拉希望通过GROQ实现的目标相比较。 **12. 特斯拉匹克球拍:** * 特斯拉与CellCirc合作发布了一款售价350美元的“Plaid匹克球拍”。 * 这是一次“真正的工程合作”,特斯拉设计团队专注于气流、阻力系数和几何形状调整以提高加速性能。 * 据报道,该球拍能产生“惊人的旋转数”(平均2484转/分钟)。匹克球爱好者 Dylan 买了一支。 **13. 股票表现:** * 特斯拉(TSLA)当日收盘价458.96美元,上涨0.7%,而纳斯达克指数下跌1.9%。成交量高于平均水平22%。 节目最后,Dylan 祝听众周末愉快,并感谢他的Patreon支持者。

Here's a summary of the Electrified episode, covering every news item discussed: The host, Dylan Lumis, starts by thanking new patron Jeffrey H. and explains that today's episode will be shorter due to an internal stye in his eye. **1. Tesla's "Smart Roof" Patent:** * A newly published (not yet granted) Tesla patent describes a "smart roof" incorporating radio frequency (RF) transparent polymer materials (e.g., polycarbonate, ABS, ASA). * This design enables the integration of overhead electrical modules and components directly into the roof structure, overcoming limitations of traditional metallic/glass roofs for RF transmission/reception. * The polymer roof allows for pre-assembly of components on a horizontal surface, enabling full automation and eliminating complex, labor-intensive overhead installations, aligning with Tesla's "unboxed method." * Benefits include superior acoustic insulation, flexibility for energy absorption (thinner construction, more headroom), weight reduction, dent resistance, molded datum pins, sharper feature formability, and corrosion resistance. It also allows for colorant in the resin, negating post-process painting. * **Starlink Clarification:** Dylan expresses doubt this patent indicates full Starlink integration. The patent explicitly refers to a **Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)** component (like GPS), not broadband internet or Leo constellations. Starlink is *not* mentioned in the patent. The proposed electronic module includes a GNSS satellite component, satellite antenna, LTE component, LTE antenna, speaker, fan, connectivity card, processor, Bluetooth, microphone, map light, and hazard switch. The solution seems designed for low-bandwidth antennas, potentially aligning with Elon's 2022 statement about Starlink V2 transmitting direct-to-mobile for emergency calls/texts, but not full broadband internet. The small cooling fan also suggests it's not robust enough for a Starlink terminal. Despite not being full Starlink, it still offers innovations like avoiding bulky external shark fin housings. **2. Elon's "Convergence" Vision:** * Elon emphasizes the "convergence" of Tesla AI chips, SpaceX satellites, XAI's GROQ, and AI data centers in space as a multi-year project. * He states SpaceX has more satellites in orbit than the rest of the world combined. * Starlink V3 (20kW) will launch at scale Q4 next year, scalable to over 100kW for AI compute by shifting mass to solar arrays/radiators instead of large phased array antennas. * Elon claims an AI satellite is "easier" to design than Starlink V3. * Farzad outlined a timeline: Tesla AI-7 inference chip -> XAI buys -> XAI puts AI-7 in Starlink AI satellite -> Starship drops off in orbit -> Tesla solar powers -> XAI uses to power GROQ across all devices (including Tesla cars and bots). He notes space regulations are less stringent than on Earth. * Dylan advises Tesla investors to internalize this future, as the focus will shift beyond auto gross margins. **3. SpaceX IPO and Mars Funding:** * Phil Beisel suggested that raising capital for scaling Starlink plus AI via IPO is crucial for funding Mars, a point Elon affirmed with "yeah." **4. Trump's AI Executive Order (EO):** * Trump signed an EO for a new federal AI framework. Dylan notes EOs are not permanent. * The EO primarily aims to empower federal authorities to counter states imposing "burdensome" AI regulations, rather than setting a specific federal framework. * It mandates an AG-led AI litigation task force within 30 days to challenge inconsistent state AI laws and a Commerce Dept. evaluation of "onerous" state laws within 90 days. * Restrictions on state funding for non-compliant states are expected, with child safety being an exception where federal laws won't preempt state decisions. * **Impact on Tesla:** This could challenge state laws like California's SB 53 (mandating specific safety plans for high-risk AI systems like FSD), potentially accelerating Tesla's robotaxi rollouts in those states. * Tesla stock significantly outperformed the market (up 2.7% vs. NASDAQ down 1.7%) on the day, with the EO identified as a primary driver. **5. FSD Progress Updates:** * **Chuck Cook:** FSD v14 is "really, really, really good," could ride in the back seat on most drives. * **Alex (Germany):** Demo drive of v14 led him to declare "Tesla has solved autonomous driving." * **Jeremy LaFiber:** Recently bought a Model X and also says "Tesla has solved full self driving." * **CarbineCut (Munich):** FSD is "ready for Europe," capable of exceeding EU safety requirements, with zero interventions during rush hour. * All eyes remain on the RDW demonstration in February 2026. **6. SpaceX IPO for Tesla Investors (Speculation):** * Phil Beisel proposed four ways Elon could offer early/discounted SpaceX shares to Tesla retail investors, including reserving 5-10% of IPO shares exclusively for them. Elon liked the post, indicating interest, though no guarantees exist. **7. Elon's Time Allocation:** * Elon reiterated that AI5 and AI6 engineering is his biggest time allocation at Tesla, with AI5 being "good" and AI6 "great." **8. Tesla Power Share Update:** * The Powerwall feature for Power Share with vehicles is delayed to mid-2026. * Challenges include complex communication between two grid-forming devices (car and Powerwall), multiple hardware generations, and rigorous certifications for grid safety. * Tesla has already delivered Power Share functionality to CyberTruck customers and those with solar-only setups. The team is committed to finding a solution and being transparent about timing. **9. Model YL for Europe:** * An unconfirmed report (citing an X account) suggests the China-made Model Y Long Range has received European type approval, with a potential Q1 2026 release in Europe. **10. Nissan's Autonomy Push:** * Nissan is developing a "hands-off, eyes-on" ProPilot system, partnering with British startup Wave (AI-powered camera vision). * Aims to launch by early 2028, priced under $4,000 (less than half of Tesla's $8,000 FSD). * Nissan is facing its worst financial crisis in 25 years. Dylan notes Tesla will likely be at scale by 2028. **11. Rivian Autonomy & AI Day:** * **Context:** Tesla took 12 years to profit; Rivian (4 years old) is burning cash. Rivian is pursuing in-house autonomy and AI chips, similar to Tesla's vertical integration. Dylan notes Rivian is 5-10 years behind Tesla and enjoys a "second mover advantage" but acknowledges it's a race for second place. * **LiDAR Decision:** Rivian will include front-facing LiDAR, a decision criticized by Tesla followers for potential sensor fusion problems. Dylan compares LiDAR to "bumpers at the bowling alley" – a short-term boost but potentially a long-term crutch that doesn't make a car "smart." * **Rivian's Approach:** Rivian will feed all sensor data into its AI model (RAP) trained on fused data, allowing the AI to decide which sensor to prioritize. This differs from Tesla's early rule-based sensor fusion. * **Camera-Only Critique:** Dylan argues other companies don't have the time, data, or resources to make camera-only work, not that it doesn't work in varied conditions. * **Doubts:** Dylan expresses doubts about Rivian's AI platform given its limited fleet size, data, and financial resources. * **Why not license FSD?** Dylan explains Tesla would only license FSD at scale (Rivian sells under 50k vehicles/year). Also, companies pursue in-house solutions for valuation premiums. * **Expert Reaction:** James Dauma gave a "face palm" emoji reaction, stating "Robotaxi is a software problem... No amount of hardware will substitute for good software." He called Rivian's "Christmas tree architecture" bizarre, asking why extra sensors are added to compensate for bad software. Elon replied with a "bullseye" emoji. * **Conclusion on Autonomy:** Dylan suggests other companies lack Tesla's software/AI know-how and aren't willing to take the camera-only risk, which requires Elon's unique conviction. Rivian's Autonomous+ package will cost $2,500 or $50/month. * **Rivian AI Assistant:** In partnership with Google, Rivian demoed an AI-defined vehicle with an agentic integration. The voice assistant can handle natural language commands for climate, navigation, messaging, and future third-party apps, even asking for restaurant options near a destination and texting them to contacts. This is set to launch in early 2026 on R1 vehicles, drawing comparisons to what Tesla hopes to achieve with GROQ. **12. Tesla Pickleball Paddle:** * Tesla collaborated with CellCirc to release a $350 "Plaid Pickleball Paddle." * This was a "true engineering collaboration" where Tesla's design group focused on airflow, drag coefficients, and geometry adjustments for acceleration. * The paddle reportedly puts up "ridiculous spin numbers" (2484 RPM average). Dylan, a Pickleball enthusiast, bought one. **13. Stock Performance:** * Tesla (TSLA) closed the day at $458.96, up 0.7%, while the NDX was down 1.9%. Volume was 22% above average. The episode concludes with Dylan wishing listeners a good weekend and thanking his Patreon supporters.