Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly December 13, 2025
发布时间:2025-12-13 17:09:33
原节目
好的,以下是将您提供的文本翻译成中文:
**“市场周报”视频内容概要:**
本期“市场周报”视频讨论了近期市场活动,重点关注人工智能泡沫可能破灭、贵金属价格飙升,以及日本央行(BOJ)ETF购买方面的有趣进展。
演讲者指出,尽管主要股指仍接近历史高点,但周五出现大幅下跌,似乎是由对人工智能股票的热情减退引发的。尽管博通和甲骨文的收益强劲,但它们遭遇了大幅抛售,这归因于潜在的数据中心延迟和材料短缺。然而,演讲者也提到,标普500指数以等权重计算创下了历史新高,表明资金正在从某些科技股转向其他板块。他强调,现在不是过度看跌的时候,但在泡沫时期,剧烈的调整是典型的。
视频的大部分内容都集中在黄金和白银价格的飙升上,尤其是白银的“抛物线”式上涨。演讲者将这一趋势归因于两个主要驱动因素:地缘政治紧张局势和美元走弱。
在地缘政治方面,演讲者强调了美国干预委内瑞拉的可能性越来越大。他详细介绍了美国的行动,例如轰炸所谓的毒品船只、扣押委内瑞拉油轮,以及为一位关键反对派领导人的行动提供便利,这很可能是为政权更迭做准备。鉴于古巴对委内瑞拉石油的依赖,这种干预也对古巴产生了影响。
第二个地缘政治担忧源于欧盟可能决定利用冻结的俄罗斯储备来资助乌克兰的战争。演讲者认为,这一行动将激励其他主权国家,特别是那些可能与西方发生冲突的国家,将其外汇储备从美元和欧元转移到黄金。他特别提到了中国和台湾的假设例子,以及在发生军事冲突时冻结中国资产的可能性。
然后,演讲者转向推动贵金属的宏观经济因素,主要关注美元的预期走弱。他预计,美国联邦储备委员会明年可能会降息,甚至可能比市场预期更积极。预计澳大利亚、加拿大和欧洲等其他主要地区可能已经结束降息,甚至考虑加息,这将导致美元进一步走弱,从而增加对贵金属的需求。他认为白银是黄金的高β版本,受到类似市场情绪的影响。他还认识到白银是一种用于清洁能源基础设施的工业金属,这可能是另一个需求来源。
视频随后深入探讨了日本央行过去购买ETF作为通货紧缩时期刺激措施的政策。虽然最初对股票市场的影响有限,但演讲者指出,日经指数目前的牛市已经为日本央行带来了这些投资的巨额利润。随着日本摆脱通货紧缩并考虑解除刺激措施,出售其部分股权有望产生巨大的财政效益。
演讲者将日本的经验与瑞士国家银行进行了对比,瑞士国家银行也购买股票,但原因不同。瑞士国家银行干预货币市场以防止瑞士法郎过度升值,购买外币和股票。因此,它也拥有巨大的意外之财。讨论强调了中央银行资产负债表在购买股票方面的非常规使用,以及当股票市场表现良好时,潜在的积极财政影响。
视频最后预告了下周的内容,包括演讲者对2026年的市场展望以及对他2025年预测的回顾。他强调这仅供娱乐,并且不能保证准确性。
This "Markets Weekly" video discusses recent market activity, focusing on the potential deflation of the AI bubble, the surge in precious metals, and interesting developments with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ETF purchases.
The speaker notes that while major indexes remain close to all-time highs, Friday saw a significant downturn seemingly triggered by waning enthusiasm for AI stocks. Despite strong earnings from Broadcom and Oracle, they experienced aggressive sell-offs, attributed to potential data center delays and material shortages. However, the speaker also mentions that the S&P 500, on an equal-weighted basis, made new all-time highs, suggesting a sector rotation away from certain tech stocks. He emphasizes that while it's not the time to be overly bearish, violent corrections are typical during bubble periods.
A significant portion of the video is dedicated to the surging prices of gold and silver, particularly silver's "parabolic" rise. The speaker attributes this trend to two primary drivers: geopolitical tensions and dollar weakness.
Regarding geopolitics, the speaker highlights the increasing likelihood of U.S. intervention in Venezuela. He details U.S. actions such as bombing alleged drug boats, seizing a Venezuelan oil tanker, and facilitating the movement of a key opposition leader, likely in preparation for regime change. This intervention has implications for Cuba as well, given their reliance on Venezuelan oil.
The second geopolitical concern arises from the European Union's potential decision to utilize frozen Russian reserves to fund Ukraine's war effort. This action, the speaker argues, would incentivize other sovereign nations, particularly those with potential conflicts with the West, to diversify their foreign reserves away from dollars and euros into gold. He specifically mentions the hypothetical example of China and Taiwan and the potential freezing of Chinese assets in the event of military conflict.
The speaker then shifts to the macroeconomic factors driving precious metals, primarily focusing on the expected weakening of the dollar. He anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates next year, potentially even more aggressively than market expectations. The expectation is that other major regions like Australia, Canada, and Europe may be done with rate cuts or even consider hikes, leading to further dollar weakness and, consequently, increased demand for precious metals. He regards silver as a higher-beta version of gold, influenced by similar market sentiments. He also recognizes silver as an industrial metal used in clean energy infrastructure, which may be a further demand source.
The video then delves into the BOJ's past policy of purchasing ETFs as a stimulus measure during a period of deflation. While the initial impact on the equity market was limited, the speaker points out that the current bull market in the Nikkei has resulted in significant profits for the BOJ from these investments. As Japan moves away from deflation and contemplates unwinding its stimulus measures, selling off a portion of its equity holdings is poised to generate substantial fiscal benefits.
The speaker contrasts Japan's experience with that of the Swiss National Bank, which also buys equities, but for a different reason. The Swiss National Bank intervenes in currency markets to prevent excessive appreciation of the Swiss franc, buying foreign currency and equities. Because of this, it also sits on significant windfalls. The discussion highlights the unconventional use of central bank balance sheets in purchasing equities and the potential positive fiscal implications when equity markets perform well.
The video concludes with a preview of next week's segment, which will include the speaker's market outlook for 2026 and a review of his 2025 predictions. He emphasizes that it's for entertainment purposes and that accuracy is not always guaranteed.