以下是内容的中文翻译： 这段12月6日录制的“瑞克利市场观察”视频分析了近期市场活动，并深入探讨了两个关键的政策方面：美联储可能的政策变化，以及白宫国家安全战略中概述的美国外交政策的转变，特别是关于欧洲的转变。 演讲者首先观察到过去几周市场表现平静，价格在一定范围内波动，尽管主要股指略微走高。他保持乐观展望，认为标准普尔500指数可能在年底达到7000点。 第一个主要话题是凯文·哈塞特可能成为下一任美联储主席。演讲者指出，特朗普总统似乎已经选定哈塞特，这位他长期以来的经济顾问，担任这一职务。哈塞特的资历完备，拥有经济学博士学位，曾在美联储工作，并在有影响力的保守派智库中担任过职务。他曾担任多位共和党总统候选人的经济顾问，最终成为特朗普总统的经济顾问，晋升为经济顾问委员会主席，现在是国家经济委员会主席。 演讲者认为，哈塞特的任命可能会导致美联储采取更加鸽派的政策。虽然他没有预测激进的降息，但他认为哈塞特可能会以一种更有利于降低利率的方式解读经济数据和美联储的双重任务（就业和通货膨胀）。他承认美联储不是一个人的机构，强调了其他理事和地区银行行长的影响力，其中一些人非常鹰派。 这引出了对贝森部长计划对美联储施加更大影响的讨论。贝森曾表示，他担心一些地区联储主席并不代表他们所在的地区，而是“从纽约空降而来”。他提议制定一项规则，要求地区联储主席必须在其所在地区居住至少三年。演讲者以克利夫兰联储主席和德克萨斯联储主席为例。尽管贝森表示这不会追溯既往，但这些人即将面临重新任命。演讲者推测，这可能是一种旨在获得对美联储更大影响力的手段，类似于针对美联储理事丽莎·库克的待决诉讼。 演讲者总结说，特朗普政府将降低利率作为一项优先事项，并正在积极寻求实现这一目标的途径。该计划可能奏效，但美联储可能会受到政治影响，例如通过收益率曲线控制。 第二个主要话题是白宫的国家安全战略，其中概述了“美国优先”的外交政策。虽然该文件的大部分内容重申了之前已知的立场，但其中一些要素尤其值得注意。演讲者强调了重申的“特朗普时代的门罗主义”，强调美国在美洲的影响力，并暗示警告外国（特别是欧洲）的干预。他引用了向阿根廷提供的紧急贷款以及委内瑞拉海岸的军事存在等例子，作为该战略的行动证据。 该文件还涉及与中国的关系，重申了台湾的现状，但没有明确支持独立或宣布台湾为中国的一个省份。演讲者认为，该战略最具挑衅性的方面是其对欧洲的立场。该文件暗示，欧洲的民主进程已经破裂，导致了诸如乌克兰持续战争等不良后果。演讲者将此与副总统万斯的一次讲话联系起来，该讲话也表达了对欧洲精英类似的蔑视。 本届政府认为，欧洲精英是根深蒂固的在位者，他们操纵体制以维持权力，损害了他们的人民和经济。特朗普政府认为这些既得利益集团正在阻碍机制的运作，并阻止欧洲改变方向。本届政府认为解决这个问题的方法是通过他们所谓的“在欧洲培养抵抗力量”来取代既得利益集团，演讲者将此解读为一场政权更迭的努力。他认为这是跨大西洋关系的一次革命性转变，表明美国可能不再将欧洲视为平等的伙伴，甚至可能正在积极努力用更符合美国利益的个人取代其领导层。这可能导致更加亲商业、监管更少的经济体，与俄罗斯更具合作性，因此可能使欧洲受益。 演讲者最后展望了即将到来的美联储会议，预计会降息，并可能讨论重启储备金管理购买。

This "Market's Reckly" video, recorded on December 6th, provides an analysis of recent market activity and delves into two key policy fronts: potential changes at the Federal Reserve and a shift in US foreign policy, particularly concerning Europe, as outlined in the White House's National Security Strategy. The speaker starts by observing a quiet market with range-bound price action in the past few weeks, albeit with major equity indexes trending slightly higher. He maintains his optimistic outlook, suggesting the S&P 500 could reach 7,000 by year's end. The first major topic is the potential for Kevin Hassett to become the next Federal Reserve Chair. The speaker notes that President Trump appears to have settled on Hassett, his long-time economic advisor, for the role. Hassett's credentials are sound, with a Ph.D. in economics, experience at the Fed, and positions in influential conservative think tanks. He has served as an economic advisor to multiple Republican presidential candidates and, eventually, to President Trump, rising to Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors and now President of the National Economic Council. The speaker believes Hassett's appointment would likely lead to a more dovish Fed policy. While not predicting radical interest rate cuts, he suggests that Hassett could interpret economic data and the Fed's dual mandates (employment and inflation) in a way that favors lower rates. He acknowledges that the Fed isn't a one-person entity, highlighting the influence of other governors and regional bank presidents, some of whom are quite hawkish. This leads to the discussion of Secretary Bessen's plan to exert more influence over the Federal Reserve. Bessen has expressed concern that some regional Fed presidents are not representative of their districts, being “parachuted in from New York”. He proposes a rule requiring regional Fed presidents to have lived in their district for at least three years. The speaker highlights the President of the Cleveland Fed and the President in Texas as examples. Although Bessen states this would not be retroactive, these individuals are up for reappointment soon. The speaker postulates this could be a play to gain more influence over the Fed, similar to a pending lawsuit against Lisa Cook, a Fed governor. The speaker concludes that the Trump administration views lower interest rates as a priority and is actively seeking ways to achieve this. The plan may work, but the Fed could be politically influenced, for example via yield curve control. The second main topic is the White House's National Security Strategy, which outlines an "America First" foreign policy. While much of the document reiterates previously known positions, some elements are especially noteworthy. The speaker highlights the reaffirmation of a "Trump-era Monroe Doctrine," asserting US influence in the Americas and implicitly warning against foreign (specifically European) meddling. He cites examples like emergency loans to Argentina and naval presence off the coast of Venezuela as evidence of this strategy in action. The document also touches on relations with China, reaffirming the status quo on Taiwan without explicitly supporting independence or declaring Taiwan a province of China. The most provocative aspect of the strategy, according to the speaker, is its stance toward Europe. The document suggests that the democratic process in Europe is broken, leading to undesirable outcomes like the ongoing war in Ukraine. The speaker relates this to a speech given by Vice President Vance which noted a similar disdain for European elites. The administration views European elites as entrenched incumbents who are manipulating the system to maintain power, to the detriment of their people and economies. The Trump administration believes these established powers are blocking the mechanisms and preventing Europe from changing course. The administration thinks the solution to this problem is to replace the established powers through what it calls "cultivating resistance in Europe," which the speaker interprets as a regime change effort. He views this as a revolutionary shift in the transatlantic relationship, indicating that the US may no longer see Europe as an equal partner and may even be actively working to replace its leadership with individuals more aligned with US interests. This could lead to more pro-business, less regulated economies that are more collaborative with Russia, therefore possibly benefitting Europe. The speaker concludes by anticipating the upcoming Fed meeting, expecting interest rate cuts and the potential discussion of restarting reserve management purchases.