以下是内容的中文翻译： 播客《Electrified》的主持人迪伦·卢米斯(Dylan Lumis)在开场时感谢了他最新的赞助人Dan W.，随后深入探讨了核心话题：埃隆·马斯克可能因83B选举期权而出售特斯拉股票的事件。 **埃隆·马斯克出售股票/83B选举期权：** * 一个名为“Rebellion Air Team”的团队重点提到了83B选举期权，这可能允许埃隆对其2025年CEO绩效奖股票预缴税款，从而大幅减轻其整体税负。 * 迪伦尽管拥有金融背景，但避免给出明确的税务建议，指出其复杂性，并赞扬“Rebellion Air Team”团队将其提请注意。 * 他认为83B选举期权的申报窗口将开放至12月6日（即新绩效奖于11月6日批准后的30天内）。 * 埃隆可能将83B选举期权应用于奖金的哪一部分尚不清楚，因为代理文件中允许选择“全部或部分”。 * “Rebellion Air Team”的计算结果显示，若不选择83B，埃隆的税单可能高达3500亿美元；但若选择83B，目前可能只需缴纳150亿美元，总计2400亿美元，可节省约1000亿美元，并将增值部分作为资本利得处理。 * 按特斯拉目前每股440美元的价格计算，支付150亿美元的税款需要出售约3400万股股票。 * 然而，出售股票也带来了一些问题：这与埃隆希望获得25%投票控制权的意愿相悖；他将错失潜在的股票增值（例如，如果特斯拉股价达到2500美元，可能损失700亿美元）；并且如果特斯拉未能达到绩效里程碑，他可能需要为一份他可能无法完全获得的奖金支付税款。 * 代理文件中还提到了“净结算”，这是一种非零概率，即特斯拉可能用现金支付埃隆的税单。 * 如果埃隆出售股票，Form 4文件很可能在下周出现；如果不是，那么他要么不选择83B选举期权，要么正在寻找其他方式来支付税款。 * 迪伦总结说，尽管这可能导致短期抛售压力和媒体关注，但这不会改变特斯拉的基本面，鉴于两种税务路径的利弊，他相信埃隆和特斯拉的判断。 **赞助商 - AG1：** * 迪伦推广了AG1，强调了新的节日优惠，包括新订阅者的欢迎礼包、口味样品、D3K2和一顶帽子，并提供90天退款保证。他感谢听众通过购买AG1来支持《Electrified》，并建议将其作为增强免疫健康和养成新健康习惯的节日礼物。 **擎天柱机器人更新：** * 特斯拉发布了擎天柱2.5版本的视频，斯科特·沃尔特(Scott Walter)将其慢跑速度计算从5英里/小时修正为8.5英里/小时，这超出了埃隆·马斯克最初为安全设定的5英里/小时的目标。 * 迪伦对演示视频的一致性、距离和拍摄次数提出了疑问，强调在工厂环境中，高效的步行（约3英里/小时）比高速奔跑对于实际应用更为关键。 * 他认为特斯拉正在“幕后取得惊人进展”，并预计擎天柱V3将“让许多人惊叹不已”。 * 由于特斯拉正在建立自己的供应链，初期生产进度预计会较慢。 * 正如菲尔·贝塞尔(Phil Beisel)所指出的，视频展示了带有“腾空阶段”的真实奔跑，展现出流畅自然的动作，表明底层架构日趋成熟。 * 擎天柱目前戴着手套，这可能是在掩盖过时的手部设计。埃隆此前曾误称50个执行器，后来澄清是每只前臂和手有25个。特斯拉的目标是使执行器与自由度之比接近1:1（人类手部有27个自由度）。生产100万台擎天柱机器人，仅手部就需要5000万个执行器。 * 迪伦预计擎天柱将采用类似于FSD的“先慢后快”的生产模式，并且对手部的能力（承重、小物体操作、温度敏感性）仍有疑问。 * 擎天柱的视频在NERIPS 2025会议上展示，该会议专注于人工智能/机器学习/神经科学。 * 在NERIPS会议上，特斯拉的丹尼尔·库里克(Daniel Curric)讨论了利用特斯拉的FSD模型作为训练擎天柱的“巨大起点”，通过一小队机器人及其现有的世界模型进行模拟。 **政府与监管新闻：** * **美国机器人产业：** 特朗普政府计划加速机器人产业发展，商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克(Howard Lutnik)与CEO们会面，可能在2024年发布行政命令，交通部正在筹备一个机器人工作组。迪伦希望能够获得资金和简化的监管审批。 * **美国燃油效率：** 特朗普政府将宣布新的燃油效率标准，终止拜登政府“繁重”的CAFE标准（到2031年达到50英里/加仑），转而采用2031年约为34英里/加仑的标准。此举旨在将新车成本降低约1000美元，但会允许传统汽车制造商优先生产燃油卡车和SUV，从而进一步减少特斯拉的监管信用额度收入。 * **英国电动汽车法规：** 特斯拉私下警告英国政府，放宽电动汽车法规（“灵活性”）将对纯电动汽车销量和气候目标产生负面影响。 **FSD与自动驾驶更新（欧洲焦点）：** * FSD在欧洲各地的演示驾驶持续获得“压倒性的积极评价”，法国、意大利（在狭窄道路上）和德国的用户都称赞其“令人惊叹”、“无与伦比”的表现。 * 特斯拉接待了罗马市长进行FSD演示，提高了知名度。 * 迪伦注意到社交媒体帖子中M破折号的普遍使用，暗示了人工智能参与起草。 * 德国的FSD随车演示已延长至2026年3月，这表明需求强劲。 * 拉斐尔(Rafael)在一次FSD演示后，称其“疯狂、自信、平稳”，并表示它比一般人驾驶得更好。 * 约翰·斯洛特金博士(Dr. John Slotkin)在《纽约时报》上发表的关于自动驾驶汽车安全的文章，强调了Waymo的数据，主张将自动驾驶汽车作为“公共卫生干预”措施来拯救生命，并批评阻碍部署的城市/国家。迪伦认为，普遍使用FSD将使交通事故死亡人数降至接近零。 * 特斯拉工程师尹·特赛(Yoon Tessai)承认正在努力改善冬季条件下的摄像头热管理，尽管迪伦指出，发热并非解决盐/污垢问题的完整方案。 * 迪伦强调FSD“痛苦地接近”成功，但尚未“完全解决”，他列举了一些用户遇到的持续导航问题、抖动行为（即使是14.2.1版本）和停车场倒退问题。他指出，特斯拉仍有安全监控员、小规模车队，且不向客户提供无人监督的FSD。 * 他简要提到了他驾驶Model 3配备夏季轮胎在雪地里“绝妙”的驾驶体验，并提供了外部视频链接，因为涉及音乐版权。 **特斯拉运营与招聘：** * **韩国销量：** 特斯拉在韩国持续保持积极势头，有望实现同比销量翻番，目标是2023年达到60000辆，而2022年不到30000辆。 * **上海超级工厂产量：** 11月批发量为86700辆，比去年11月增长超过10%，也是今年月度第二高值，使今年迄今的降幅收窄至-8.3%。 * **Cybertruck/Cybertaxi：** 乔·特特迈尔(Joe Tetmire)分享了奥斯汀的cybercab铸件图片，表明正在进行翻滚碰撞测试设置，生产似乎有望在4月启动。 * **Cortex 2：** Cortex 2的冷却厂Peers平台和管道正在安装，预计电脑机柜将在2026年第一季度到位。 * **Semi卡车项目：** 来自Hendrickson和ABB E-Mobility等公司的经验丰富的专业人士杰森·盖斯(Jason Geys)宣布他将加入特斯拉Semi卡车的业务开发团队。 * **招聘：** 特斯拉正在招聘一名高级显示光学工程师，负责车载信息娱乐系统的LCD和OLED显示系统。 * **合作：** 德尔玛学院(Delmar College)与特斯拉合作，为其奥斯汀的锂精炼厂和阴极生产工厂启动了化学操作实习项目。 **其他科技/汽车新闻：** * Waymo宣布在四个新城市进行测试：圣路易斯、匹兹堡、巴尔的摩和费城（自夏季以来进行人工测试），目前已在达拉斯实现完全自动驾驶。迪伦批评Waymo在某些情况下驾驶行为不佳，包括最近的“交叉火力”事件。 * 备受争议的捷豹品牌重塑背后的设计总监杰瑞·麦戈文(Jerry McGovern)据报道已被解雇。 * “Green the Only”暗示特斯拉可能在部分新车中将外部摄像头从IMX963升级到IMX00N（很可能是索尼产品），但具体细节尚不清楚。 * 通用汽车CEO玛丽·巴拉(Mary Barra)在与安德鲁·索金(Andrew Sorkin)的对话中承认，电动汽车的普及主要归功于埃隆·马斯克和特斯拉，而非她本人或拜登。 **收盘行情：** * 特斯拉股价收于446.74美元，上涨4.08%，而纳斯达克指数(NDX)上涨0.2%。成交量高于平均水平2%。

Dylan Lumis, host of "Electrified," began by thanking his newest patron, Dan W., before diving into the main topic: Elon Musk's potential Tesla stock sale due to an 83B election option. **Elon Musk Stock Sale / 83B Election Option:** * A "Rebellion Air Team" highlighted the 83B election, which could allow Elon to prepay taxes on his 2025 CEO Performance Award shares, significantly reducing his overall tax burden. * Dylan, despite his finance background, refrained from definitive tax advice, noting the complexity and praising the "Rebellion Air Team" for bringing it to attention. * He believes the filing window for the 83B election is open until December 6th (30 days after the November 6th ratification of the new Performance Award). * The exact portion of the award Elon might apply the 83B election to is unknown, as the proxy allows for "all or a portion." * "Rebellion Air Team's" calculations suggest without 83B, Elon's tax bill could be around $350 billion, but with 83B, it could be $15 billion now and $240 billion total, saving approximately $100 billion and treating appreciation as capital gains. * Paying $15 billion in tax would require selling roughly 34 million shares at Tesla's current $440 price. * However, selling shares poses issues: it conflicts with Elon's desire for 25% voting control, he would lose out on potential stock appreciation (e.g., $70 billion if Tesla hits $2500), and he risks paying tax on an award he might not fully receive if Tesla doesn't meet performance milestones. * The proxy also mentions "net settlement," a non-zero probability where Tesla could pay Elon's tax bill with cash. * If Elon sells, Form 4s would likely appear next week; if not, he either isn't taking the 83B election or is finding other means to cover the tax bill. * Dylan concluded that while this could cause short-term selling pressure and media scrutiny, it doesn't alter Tesla's fundamentals, and he trusts Elon and Tesla's judgment given the pros and cons of both tax paths. **Sponsor - AG1:** * Dylan promoted AG1, highlighting a new holiday offer including a welcome kit, flavor samples, D3K2, and a hat for new subscribers, backed by a 90-day money-back guarantee. He thanked his audience for supporting Electrified through AG1 purchases and suggested it as a holiday gift for immune health and starting new healthy habits. **Optimus Robot Updates:** * Tesla released Optimus version 2.5 videos, with Scott Walter revising his jogging speed calculation from 5 mph to 8.5 mph, exceeding Elon Musk's initial 5 mph target for safety. * Dylan questioned the consistency, distance, and number of takes for the demo, emphasizing that efficient walking (around 3 mph) in factory settings is more crucial than high-speed running for practical use. * He feels Tesla is making "incredible progress behind the scenes" and expects Optimus V3 to "blow a lot of people away." * Production timelines are expected to be slower initially due to Tesla building its own supply chain. * The video showed legitimate running with a "flight phase," demonstrating smooth and natural movement, indicating maturing underlying architecture, as noted by Phil Beisel. * Optimus currently has gloves, likely concealing an outdated hand design. Elon had previously misspoke about 50 actuators, clarifying it's 25 per forearm and hand. Tesla aims for a near 1-to-1 ratio of actuators to degrees of freedom (human hands have 27). Producing 1 million Optimus robots would require 50 million actuators just for the hands. * Dylan expects the "slowly then all at once" production model for Optimus, similar to FSD, and still has questions about the hands' capabilities (weight, small object manipulation, temperature sensitivity). * The Optimus videos were showcased at NERIPS 2025, a conference on AI/ML/neuroscience. * At NERIPS, Daniel Curric from Tesla discussed leveraging Tesla's FSD model as a "huge head start" for training Optimus, using a small fleet of robots and their existing world model for simulation. **Government & Regulatory News:** * **US Robotics:** The Trump administration is planning to accelerate the robotics industry, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik meeting CEOs, potentially issuing an executive order in 2024, and the Department of Transportation preparing a robotics working group. Dylan hopes for funding and streamlined regulatory approvals. * **US Fuel Efficiency:** The Trump administration is set to announce new fuel efficiency standards, terminating Biden's "burdensome" CAFE standards (50 mpg by 2031) in favor of approximately 34 mpg by 2031. This aims to reduce new car costs by about $1,000 but will allow legacy automakers to prioritize gas-powered trucks and SUVs, further phasing down Tesla's regulatory credit revenue. * **UK EV Regulations:** Tesla privately cautioned the UK government that loosening EV regulations ("flexibilities") would negatively impact fully electric sales and climate targets. **FSD & Autonomy Updates (Europe Focus):** * FSD demo drives across Europe continue to receive "overwhelming positivity," with users in France, Italy (on narrow roads), and Germany praising its "mind blowing," "incomparable" performance. * Tesla hosted the Mayor of Rome for an FSD demo, boosting visibility. * Dylan noted the prevalence of M-dashes in social media posts, suggesting AI involvement in drafting. * FSD ride-along demos in Germany have been extended through March 2026, indicating strong demand. * Rafael, after an FSD demo, called it "insane, confident, smooth," saying it drives better than the average human. * Dr. John Slotkin's New York Times essay on autonomous vehicle safety highlighted Waymo's data, advocating for AVs as a "public health intervention" to save lives and criticizing cities/countries that block deployment. Dylan believes universal FSD would plummet auto accident deaths to near zero. * Tesla engineer Yoon Tessai acknowledged work on improving camera thermal management for winter conditions, though Dylan noted heat isn't a complete solution for salt/dirt issues. * Dylan stressed that FSD is "painfully close" but not yet "solved," citing ongoing navigation problems, jittery behavior (even with 14.2.1), and parking lot regressions experienced by some users. He noted Tesla still has safety monitors, a small fleet, and doesn't offer unsupervised FSD to customers. * He briefly mentioned a "sublime" snow driving experience in his Model 3 with summer tires, with a video linked externally due to music copyright. **Tesla Operations & Hiring:** * **South Korea Sales:** Tesla shows continued positive momentum in South Korea, on track to double sales year-over-year, aiming for 60,000 units in 2023 compared to less than 30,000 in 2022. * **Gigafactory Shanghai Production:** November wholesale figures were 86,700 units, up over 10% from last November and the second-highest monthly reading this year, bringing the year-to-date decline to -8.3%. * **Cybertruck / Cybertaxi:** Joe Tetmire shared images of cybercab castings in Austin, indicating roll-over crash testing setup, and production appears on track for an April start. * **Cortex 2:** Chiller Plant Peers platforms and conduit are being set up for Cortex 2, with computer cabinets expected in Q1 2026. * **Semi Program:** Jason Geys, an experienced professional from companies like Hendrickson and ABB E-Mobility, announced he is joining Tesla's business development team for the Semi. * **Hiring:** Tesla is hiring a Senior Display Optical Engineer to work on LCD and OLED display systems for vehicle infotainment. * **Partnership:** Delmar College launched a chemical operations internship in partnership with Tesla for its lithium refinery and cathode production factory in Austin. **Other Tech/Auto News:** * Waymo announced testing in four new cities: St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia (manual testing since summer), and is now fully autonomous in Dallas. Dylan criticized Waymo for poor driving behavior in some instances, including a recent "crossfire" incident. * Jerry McGovern, the design boss behind the Jaguar rebranding that drew criticism, was reportedly fired. * "Green the Only" suggested Tesla might be upgrading exterior cameras from IMX963 to IMX00N (likely Sony) in some new cars, though details are unclear. * GM CEO Mary Barra acknowledged in a talk with Andrew Sorkin that credit for EV adoption should largely go to Elon Musk and Tesla, not herself or Biden. **Market Close:** * Tesla stock closed at $446.74, up 4.08%, while the NDX was up 0.2%. Volume was 2% above average.