Dylan Lumis, host of "Electrified," began by thanking his newest patron, Dan W., before diving into the main topic: Elon Musk's potential Tesla stock sale due to an 83B election option.
**Elon Musk Stock Sale / 83B Election Option:**
* A "Rebellion Air Team" highlighted the 83B election, which could allow Elon to prepay taxes on his 2025 CEO Performance Award shares, significantly reducing his overall tax burden.
* Dylan, despite his finance background, refrained from definitive tax advice, noting the complexity and praising the "Rebellion Air Team" for bringing it to attention.
* He believes the filing window for the 83B election is open until December 6th (30 days after the November 6th ratification of the new Performance Award).
* The exact portion of the award Elon might apply the 83B election to is unknown, as the proxy allows for "all or a portion."
* "Rebellion Air Team's" calculations suggest without 83B, Elon's tax bill could be around $350 billion, but with 83B, it could be $15 billion now and $240 billion total, saving approximately $100 billion and treating appreciation as capital gains.
* Paying $15 billion in tax would require selling roughly 34 million shares at Tesla's current $440 price.
* However, selling shares poses issues: it conflicts with Elon's desire for 25% voting control, he would lose out on potential stock appreciation (e.g., $70 billion if Tesla hits $2500), and he risks paying tax on an award he might not fully receive if Tesla doesn't meet performance milestones.
* The proxy also mentions "net settlement," a non-zero probability where Tesla could pay Elon's tax bill with cash.
* If Elon sells, Form 4s would likely appear next week; if not, he either isn't taking the 83B election or is finding other means to cover the tax bill.
* Dylan concluded that while this could cause short-term selling pressure and media scrutiny, it doesn't alter Tesla's fundamentals, and he trusts Elon and Tesla's judgment given the pros and cons of both tax paths.
**Sponsor - AG1:**
* Dylan promoted AG1, highlighting a new holiday offer including a welcome kit, flavor samples, D3K2, and a hat for new subscribers, backed by a 90-day money-back guarantee. He thanked his audience for supporting Electrified through AG1 purchases and suggested it as a holiday gift for immune health and starting new healthy habits.
**Optimus Robot Updates:**
* Tesla released Optimus version 2.5 videos, with Scott Walter revising his jogging speed calculation from 5 mph to 8.5 mph, exceeding Elon Musk's initial 5 mph target for safety.
* Dylan questioned the consistency, distance, and number of takes for the demo, emphasizing that efficient walking (around 3 mph) in factory settings is more crucial than high-speed running for practical use.
* He feels Tesla is making "incredible progress behind the scenes" and expects Optimus V3 to "blow a lot of people away."
* Production timelines are expected to be slower initially due to Tesla building its own supply chain.
* The video showed legitimate running with a "flight phase," demonstrating smooth and natural movement, indicating maturing underlying architecture, as noted by Phil Beisel.
* Optimus currently has gloves, likely concealing an outdated hand design. Elon had previously misspoke about 50 actuators, clarifying it's 25 per forearm and hand. Tesla aims for a near 1-to-1 ratio of actuators to degrees of freedom (human hands have 27). Producing 1 million Optimus robots would require 50 million actuators just for the hands.
* Dylan expects the "slowly then all at once" production model for Optimus, similar to FSD, and still has questions about the hands' capabilities (weight, small object manipulation, temperature sensitivity).
* The Optimus videos were showcased at NERIPS 2025, a conference on AI/ML/neuroscience.
* At NERIPS, Daniel Curric from Tesla discussed leveraging Tesla's FSD model as a "huge head start" for training Optimus, using a small fleet of robots and their existing world model for simulation.
**Government & Regulatory News:**
* **US Robotics:** The Trump administration is planning to accelerate the robotics industry, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik meeting CEOs, potentially issuing an executive order in 2024, and the Department of Transportation preparing a robotics working group. Dylan hopes for funding and streamlined regulatory approvals.
* **US Fuel Efficiency:** The Trump administration is set to announce new fuel efficiency standards, terminating Biden's "burdensome" CAFE standards (50 mpg by 2031) in favor of approximately 34 mpg by 2031. This aims to reduce new car costs by about $1,000 but will allow legacy automakers to prioritize gas-powered trucks and SUVs, further phasing down Tesla's regulatory credit revenue.
* **UK EV Regulations:** Tesla privately cautioned the UK government that loosening EV regulations ("flexibilities") would negatively impact fully electric sales and climate targets.
**FSD & Autonomy Updates (Europe Focus):**
* FSD demo drives across Europe continue to receive "overwhelming positivity," with users in France, Italy (on narrow roads), and Germany praising its "mind blowing," "incomparable" performance.
* Tesla hosted the Mayor of Rome for an FSD demo, boosting visibility.
* Dylan noted the prevalence of M-dashes in social media posts, suggesting AI involvement in drafting.
* FSD ride-along demos in Germany have been extended through March 2026, indicating strong demand.
* Rafael, after an FSD demo, called it "insane, confident, smooth," saying it drives better than the average human.
* Dr. John Slotkin's New York Times essay on autonomous vehicle safety highlighted Waymo's data, advocating for AVs as a "public health intervention" to save lives and criticizing cities/countries that block deployment. Dylan believes universal FSD would plummet auto accident deaths to near zero.
* Tesla engineer Yoon Tessai acknowledged work on improving camera thermal management for winter conditions, though Dylan noted heat isn't a complete solution for salt/dirt issues.
* Dylan stressed that FSD is "painfully close" but not yet "solved," citing ongoing navigation problems, jittery behavior (even with 14.2.1), and parking lot regressions experienced by some users. He noted Tesla still has safety monitors, a small fleet, and doesn't offer unsupervised FSD to customers.
* He briefly mentioned a "sublime" snow driving experience in his Model 3 with summer tires, with a video linked externally due to music copyright.
**Tesla Operations & Hiring:**
* **South Korea Sales:** Tesla shows continued positive momentum in South Korea, on track to double sales year-over-year, aiming for 60,000 units in 2023 compared to less than 30,000 in 2022.
* **Gigafactory Shanghai Production:** November wholesale figures were 86,700 units, up over 10% from last November and the second-highest monthly reading this year, bringing the year-to-date decline to -8.3%.
* **Cybertruck / Cybertaxi:** Joe Tetmire shared images of cybercab castings in Austin, indicating roll-over crash testing setup, and production appears on track for an April start.
* **Cortex 2:** Chiller Plant Peers platforms and conduit are being set up for Cortex 2, with computer cabinets expected in Q1 2026.
* **Semi Program:** Jason Geys, an experienced professional from companies like Hendrickson and ABB E-Mobility, announced he is joining Tesla's business development team for the Semi.
* **Hiring:** Tesla is hiring a Senior Display Optical Engineer to work on LCD and OLED display systems for vehicle infotainment.
* **Partnership:** Delmar College launched a chemical operations internship in partnership with Tesla for its lithium refinery and cathode production factory in Austin.
**Other Tech/Auto News:**
* Waymo announced testing in four new cities: St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Philadelphia (manual testing since summer), and is now fully autonomous in Dallas. Dylan criticized Waymo for poor driving behavior in some instances, including a recent "crossfire" incident.
* Jerry McGovern, the design boss behind the Jaguar rebranding that drew criticism, was reportedly fired.
* "Green the Only" suggested Tesla might be upgrading exterior cameras from IMX963 to IMX00N (likely Sony) in some new cars, though details are unclear.
* GM CEO Mary Barra acknowledged in a talk with Andrew Sorkin that credit for EV adoption should largely go to Elon Musk and Tesla, not herself or Biden.
**Market Close:**
* Tesla stock closed at $446.74, up 4.08%, while the NDX was up 0.2%. Volume was 2% above average.