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Electrified - Tesla's ChatGPT Moment Started This Weekend / Tesla's Been Sandbagging ⚡️

发布时间:2025-12-02 00:50:22   原节目
以下是该文字内容的中文翻译: 以下是本次会议纪要中的主要新闻点总结: **特斯拉FSD(全自动驾驶)进展与势头:** * **“ChatGPT 时刻”与雪地操控:** FSD V14.2.1 引起了巨大的轰动,尤其是在雪地中的出乎意料的卓越表现,大量视频展示了它如何调整速度曲线、平稳制动、等待更大空隙并保持抓地力。这表明 FSD 无需区域特定训练/配置文件就能“完全理解”路况,这是一个重大突破。 * **“亲身体验效应”:** 试驾持续吸引新客户,一个家庭在感恩节期间体验 FSD 后购买了一辆 Model Y(另一个家庭计划购买 Model X)。 * **复杂场景处理:** FSD 14.2.1 展示了在现实世界极端情况下的出色处理能力,例如自动避开事故现场并重新规划路线,以及响应交通指挥员的人工手势(通过手势覆盖闪烁的红灯或绿灯,等待放行)。 * **分析师认可:** TD 科恩分析师在奥斯汀进行 Robotaxi 试乘后,称其“令人印象深刻”,指出 FSD 对紧急车辆和施工区域的处理能力,并相信安全员有望在年底前移除。TD 对特斯拉(TSLA)维持“买入”评级,目标价 509 美元。 * **长途自动驾驶:** 一次 FSD 14.2 从芝加哥到佛罗里达州开普科勒尔的行程中,FSD 在 1287 英里中处理了 1286 英里(几乎 100% 自动驾驶)。 * **免费试用:** 特斯拉目前向客户提供 30 天(部分情况为 40 天)的免费 FSD 试用。 * **搜索热度:** 尽管出现过短暂的峰值,但美国 FSD 的谷歌趋势数据显示,自 2024 年夏季以来搜索热度持续上升。 **FSD 国际扩张:** * **欧洲:** * 特斯拉正在德国、法国和意大利提供 FSD 试驾,初步反馈积极。 * 西班牙已批准 19 辆特斯拉车辆进行为期两年的 FSD 道路测试,这得益于新的国家自动驾驶车辆测试框架(相比之下,Wave 获批 3 辆,雷诺获批 2 辆)。最初预计会有安全员,但根据法规,安全员是可选的。 * 特斯拉正推动在 2026 年 2 月前在荷兰获得全国性批准,尽管荷兰国家道路交通管理局(RDW)仍持谨慎态度。 * 在试驾期间,用户界面中出现了新的 HMI(人机界面)通知,这可能旨在符合 DECsAS 法规,提醒乘客即将进行的操作。 * **韩国:** FSD 正向 Model S 和 X 车型发布(通过自由贸易协定遵循美国法规),但尚未面向 Model 3 和 Y(由于中国进口,需遵循联合国欧洲经济委员会法规)。 * **数据收集:** 特斯拉正在奥地利维也纳招聘车辆操作员,以收集当地数据。 **擎天柱(Optimus)机器人新闻:** * **关键人才招募:** 前苹果机器人研究专家叶伦晨(Ye Lunchen)已加入特斯拉擎天柱 AI 团队担任机器人工程师,他专注于具身智能、机器人基础模型和灵巧操作,并对该项目的潜力表示高度乐观。 * **生产时间表更新:** 埃隆·马斯克表示,擎天柱机器人的生产“有望明年夏季开始规模化”,但发言人对此表示怀疑,鉴于过去未能按时完成的记录、项目的复杂性以及供应链挑战,认为真正规模化生产可能要到 2027 年。 * **对中国报道的质疑:** 发言人驳斥了近期中国报道称擎天柱生产线接近完工并正在进行量产认证审核的说法,认为其过于乐观。 * **冯·诺依曼探测器类比:** 埃隆将擎天柱描述为“冯·诺依曼探测器”,这是一种假想的自我复制航天器。 * **复数形式:** 埃隆澄清说,Optimus 的复数是“Optimus”。 **其他特斯拉新闻:** * **电动汽车效率基准:** 特斯拉 Model 3(20.8 千瓦时/百公里)和 Model Y(21.8 千瓦时/百公里)在中国汽车之家实际能耗测试中位居榜首,再次确认了其在效率方面的领先地位。小米 CEO 承认了这一领先地位。 * **挪威销售记录:** 今年特斯拉在挪威的销量(1-11月 28,606 辆)已超过此前任何汽车制造商在全年创造的最高纪录,打破了大众汽车 2016 年的记录。 * **中国需求/生产:** Model Y 在中国市场的交付日期已延长至 2026 年 1 月,表明需求强劲。然而,上海超级工厂的同比数据可能有所下降(由于车型换代),且上海超级工厂的周销售数据已不再公布。 * **没有特斯拉摩托车:** 埃隆·马斯克重申,出于安全考虑,特斯拉将“永远不会”制造摩托车。 **股票表现:** * 特斯拉股价 (TSLA) 收盘下跌 0.01%,报 430.14 美元,而纳斯达克指数 (NDX) 下跌 0.36%。交易量低于平均水平 31%。

Here's a summary of the key news points from the transcript: **Tesla FSD Developments & Momentum:** * **"ChatGPT Moment" & Snow Handling:** FSD V14.2.1 is generating significant buzz, particularly for its unexpected and masterful performance in snow, with numerous videos showcasing its ability to adjust speed profiles, brake gradually, wait for bigger gaps, and maintain traction. This suggests FSD is "fully understanding" conditions without needing region-specific training/profiles, a major breakthrough. * **"Butts in Seats" Effect:** Demo rides continue to convert new customers, with one family buying a Model Y (and another planning a Model X) after experiencing FSD during Thanksgiving. * **Complex Scenario Handling:** FSD 14.2.1 demonstrated impressive handling of real-world edge cases, such as autonomously navigating around an accident scene and rerouting, and responding to human hand gestures from traffic controllers (overriding blinking red lights or green lights to wait for a wave-on). * **Analyst Endorsement:** A TD Cohen analyst, after conducting Robotaxi rides in Austin, described them as "impressive," noting FSD's handling of emergency vehicles and construction, and believes safety monitors could be removed by year-end. TD has a "buy" rating and $509 price target on TSLA. * **Long-Distance Autonomy:** An FSD 14.2 trip from Chicago to Cape Coral, Florida, saw FSD handle 1286 out of 1287 miles (nearly 100% self-driving). * **Free Trial:** Tesla is now offering a free 30-day (in some cases, 40-day) FSD trial to customers. * **Search Interest:** While there were temporary spikes, Google Trends data for FSD in the US shows a steady uptrend in search interest since summer 2024. **FSD International Expansion:** * **Europe:** * Tesla is offering FSD demo rides in Germany, France, and Italy, with positive initial feedback. * Spain has approved 19 Tesla vehicles for two years of FSD testing on all roads, thanks to a new national automated vehicle testing framework (compared to 3 for Wave and 2 for Renault). Safety operators are expected initially but are optional under regulations. * Tesla is pushing for national approval in the Netherlands by February 2026, though the RDW remains cautious. * New HMI (Human Machine Interface) notifications are appearing in the UI during demo drives, likely to meet DECsAS regulations, alerting passengers of upcoming maneuvers. * **South Korea:** FSD is being released to Model S and X vehicles (following US regulations via a free trade agreement), but not yet for Model 3 and Y (which follow UNEC regulations due to Chinese imports). * **Data Collection:** Tesla is hiring a vehicle operator in Vienna, Austria, to collect local data. **Optimus Robot News:** * **Key Talent Acquisition:** Ye Lunchen, an ex-Apple robotics research expert focusing on embodied AI, robotics foundation models, and dextrous manipulation, has joined Tesla's Optimus AI team as a staff robotics engineer, expressing high optimism about the program's potential. * **Production Timeline Update:** Elon Musk stated Optimus production is "starting hopefully summer next year at scale," though the speaker expresses skepticism given past missed timelines, the complexity of the project, and supply chain challenges, suggesting 2027 for true scale production. * **Skepticism on Chinese Reports:** The speaker dismisses recent Chinese reports suggesting Optimus production lines are nearing completion and undergoing mass production certification audits as overly optimistic. * **Von Neumann Probe Analogy:** Elon described Optimus as a "Von Neumann probe," a hypothetical self-replicating spacecraft. * **Plural Form:** Elon clarified the plural of Optimus is "Optimus." **Other Tesla News:** * **EV Efficiency Benchmark:** Tesla's Model 3 (20.8 kWh/100km) and Model Y (21.8 kWh/100km) topped China's auto home real-world energy consumption test, reaffirming their leadership in efficiency. Xiaomi's CEO acknowledged this leadership. * **Norway Sales Record:** Tesla has sold more cars in Norway (28,606 vehicles Jan-Nov) this year than any other automaker ever has in a full year, breaking VW's 2016 record. * **China Demand/Production:** Model Y delivery dates in China are now extended to January 2026, indicating strong demand. However, Giga Shanghai's year-over-year data is likely to be down (due to model changeovers), and weekly sales data from Giga Shanghai is no longer available. * **No Tesla Motorcycle:** Elon Musk reiterated that Tesla will "never" make motorcycles due to safety concerns. **Stock Performance:** * Tesla stock (TSLA) closed down 0.01% at $430.14, while the NDX was down 0.36%. Volume was 31% below average.