以下是播客内容摘要，包含其中提到的每一条新闻： * **对上一期的修正：** * **特斯拉超级充电站业务：** 纠正：企业*拥有*超级充电站，特斯拉仅负责管理。 * **特斯拉屏幕分辨率：** 纠正：QHD（约360万像素）*低于* 4K（约800万像素）。特斯拉从未在其车辆中使用过4K屏幕。 * **特斯拉AI芯片与生产：** * 埃隆·马斯克证实特斯拉拥有先进的AI芯片工程团队。 * 特斯拉的AI5（最终设计阶段）即将“流片”完成，并已开始着手AI6的研发工作。 * 目标：每12个月实现一款新的AI芯片设计量产。 * 埃隆的“登月计划”声明：预计生产的芯片数量将超过所有其他AI芯片的总和（承认“AI芯片”的定义模糊）。 * 目的：通过安全驾驶和先进医疗（借助Optimus机器人）挽救数百万生命。 * 此公告主要旨在招募AI芯片人才。 * 埃隆深度参与其中，每周二和周六与工程团队会面（AI5流片完成后，周六会议将取消）。 * 特斯拉计划垂直整合，与台积电和三星合作，并可能自建晶圆厂。 * **AI芯片行业瓶颈（光刻技术）：** * **光刻**（利用光线将芯片设计转移到硅片上）是行业的瓶颈。 * **EUV（极紫外）**光刻技术是制造7纳米以下（现代先进芯片）特征所必需的。 * **ASML**，一家荷兰公司，是全球*唯一*一家EUV光刻机供应商。 * EUV机器是工程学的奇迹：超过10万个零部件，重180吨，每台售价超过2.5亿美元。 * ASML产能：2024年已交付60台EUV系统。行业需求每年超过150台。ASML计划今年将产能提高到仅90台。 * **EUV供应链脆弱性：** 涉及5000多家供应商；一些关键部件（如高精度反射镜）是单一来源。极易受到干扰（地缘政治、自然灾害、物流）。 * 埃隆引用的话：“事情进展的速度取决于流程中最不顺利的部分。” * **对特斯拉的影响：** 这些瓶颈将限制特斯拉的芯片生产速度，尤其是在2030年及以后扩大Robotaxi和Optimus的规模方面。 * **特斯拉FSD/Optimus软硬件协同设计：** * 特斯拉的芯片与AI软件团队深度协同设计，实现了令人难以置信的性能、高能效比和高性价比。 * AI4能够在约1毫秒内处理并理解100万像素的流媒体视频。 * 这是通过软硬件的紧密集成实现的。 * 采用纯视觉方案的竞争对手若想实现自动驾驶，需要设计自己的芯片并与AI软件集成。 * 大多数竞争对手要么不追求完全自动驾驶，要么采用激光雷达/多传感器方案。 * Julian（特斯拉员工）强调了Autopilot计算机极低的延迟（从光子到神经网络处理），这对FSD的响应速度和Optimus的视觉循环至关重要。 * **车内芯片升级的未来：** * 担忧：如果特斯拉每12个月发布新芯片，车辆硬件会过时吗？ * 这个讨论为时尚早，预计2028年以后才会出现（AI5最早在2027年中）。 * 特斯拉可能尚未决定改装/升级方案。 * 绝大多数特斯拉车主（99%）不了解也不关心车内的芯片。 * **隐私与DeleteMe（赞助商）：** * 提醒：此前曾发生特斯拉员工在内部聊天平台分享数千段侵犯客户隐私视频的事件，导致在美国提起集体诉讼（庭外和解）。 * 介绍DeleteMe，一家美国公司，提供从在线数据经纪人处删除个人数据的服务。使用代码“electrified”可享八折优惠。 * **FSD Supervised国际推广（v14.1.4）：** * **官方消息：** FSD Supervised v14.1.4现已开始在韩国向实际车主分发（首先是Model S/X AI车辆）。 * 目前支持FSD的国家：美国、加拿大、波多黎各、澳大利亚、新西兰、中国（小规模）、韩国。（注：大多数澳大利亚客户仍在使用v13版本）。 * 韩国Model 3/Y的推广预计很快进行。 * **欧盟FSD监管环境：** * 特斯拉已努力一年多，向监管机构演示FSD并分享安全数据（在17个欧盟国家的道路上安全行驶100万公里/62万英里进行内部测试）。 * 特斯拉的策略：与荷兰RDW合作，寻求第39条豁免，以允许未经监管的L2级行为（例如，在高速公路外启动车道变更且驾驶员双手离开方向盘）。 * 特斯拉声称，为符合规定而修改FSD会使其变得不安全/无法使用，因此他们正在逐条寻求豁免。 * **特斯拉最初的说法：** RDW承诺在2026年2月批准在荷兰全国范围内使用。特斯拉鼓励人们联系RDW表达喜悦。 * **RDW的官方回应（与特斯拉说法相悖）：** * RDW不透露待处理申请的细节。 * 他们与特斯拉有一个时间表，规定特斯拉在2026年2月*演示*FSD符合要求，*而不是*承诺批准。 “至于能否按时完成，还有待观察。” * RDW表示安全是首要考虑。 * RDW请求公众*不要*联系他们，因为这会浪费时间，也无法影响规划。 * **豁免流程（RDW版本）：** 荷兰必须代表特斯拉向欧盟委员会提交申请。需要负责的欧盟委员会内部*多数票通过*才能在全欧盟范围内生效。如果没有多数票，则仅在荷兰有效，其他国家需独立决定。 * RDW还澄清，特斯拉必须*首先*通过与型式认证机构进行全面测试程序来证明其符合要求，然后才能提交豁免申请。 * **主持人结论：** 特斯拉和RDW显然存在分歧，一方可能误报了情况。特斯拉过去对欧盟/中国FSD推出（2025年第一季度）的预测是错误的。 * 主持人认为RDW正在“踩刹车”，并且欧盟监管机构以“安全”为幌子，保护陷入困境的欧盟汽车工业免受特斯拉技术领先的冲击。 * **Keys的观察：** 尽管特斯拉提供了大量数据（例如挪威只允许有限的v13测试，拒绝v14），但欧盟当局一直给予类似的、拖延的答复。 * 由于监管机构积极拖延，FSD在欧盟范围内的广泛批准似乎“遥遥无期”。 * 由欧盟成员国代表组成的**TCMV（机动车技术委员会）**将对任何欧盟范围内的豁免进行投票。 * 主持人还承认，欧盟部分民众/领导层中存在的反埃隆情绪也导致了延误。 * **传统汽车对自动驾驶的立场与特斯拉授权：** * Rob Werthermer（Melius Research）：特斯拉股票是“必买”的。 * 预测未来五年内，数千亿美元的价值将转移到特斯拉。 * 由于战略选择（芯片、垂直整合、软件），特斯拉的领先优势正在扩大。 * Lewis的图片显示了传统汽车的“墓地”，上面写着“没有自动驾驶”。 * **埃隆的回应：** “我曾试图警告他们，甚至提出授权特斯拉FSD，但他们不想要。这太疯狂了。” * 他声称传统汽车的咨询是为了“五年内的小型项目，并附带不切实际的要求”。 * 主持人长期以来的观点：不看好FSD授权给传统汽车，因为他们偏爱激光雷达/英伟达方案，并避免承认特斯拉的优势。 * 主持人预测传统汽车将再次因“现成工具”而失败，届时才可能考虑特斯拉，但那时人们将被“迫选择特斯拉”。预计“未来几年内”不会有FSD授权。 * **特斯拉Robotaxi项目（奥斯汀）：** * Ethan创建了一个非官方车队追踪器：tesla-robotaxi-tracker.com。 * 目前显示奥斯汀有29辆活跃车辆（社区众包数据）。 * 有报告称用户等待乘车时间超过40分钟。 * 一旦安全监控员被移除（希望在30天内），车队规模预计将迅速增长。特斯拉可能首先在评估需求。 * **FSD 14.2版本问题：** * 主持人正在他妻子的Model Y上下载14.2版本，尚未测试。 * 报告称FSD各版本（包括14.2）存在奇怪的路线规划和导航问题。 * 例子：14.2版本本应右转，却左转-右转-右转-右转-左转，并驶入了错误的停车场。 * 地图数据被认为是“阿喀琉斯之踵”，暗示需要众包报告（如Waze）。 * 关于特斯拉是能“阅读”标识还是仅仅“识别”标识的问题（这对于导航、限速、学区至关重要）。 * Darren警告称14.2版本“驾驶方面表现出色，但在停车方面仍然很差”。有报告称其在停车场倒车时撞到车辆。 * 坊间传闻表明14.2版本在停车场行为方面略有退步，包括CyberTruck的问题。 * **“Geofence Region Bay Unsupervised”代码：** * 在软件更新2025.44中发现，暗示可能在加州湾区进行无人监督FSD的内部测试。 * 推测这可能是继奥斯汀之后，在明年第一季度湾区取消安全监控员的前兆。 * **特斯拉对减重的关注：** * Lars（特斯拉员工）透露，多年来新款Model X已减重400磅。 * 强调“减重事关重大”，影响安全性、效率、NVH（噪音、振动与声振粗糙度）、能耗和成本（“质量生质量”）。 * Zach（Cybercab项目工作）解释说，每未减去的一克都会对加速、悬架、碰撞结构、制动、效率和性能产生负面影响。 * 特斯拉的企业文化继承了SpaceX在质量管理方面的火箭学原理。 * **Hardware 3的寿命：** * 特斯拉正在招聘一名负责强化学习和蒸馏的AI工程师。 * 职位描述：为机器人开发“奥运会级别的物理智能”，并在本地计算设备上实时运行。 * 该职位涉及将大型模型（如FSD 14）进行“蒸馏”，使其在“最先进的推理硬件”（即Hardware 3）上运行。这意味着将持续支持和优化HW3。 * **车辆注册量（挪威和瑞典）：** * **挪威：** 特斯拉有望打破大众汽车自2016年以来保持的单一品牌年度最高注册量纪录。 * **瑞典：** 特斯拉今年迄今的注册量同比下降68%。 * **瑞典监管偏见（Waymo对比特斯拉）：** * 瑞典中央党提议斯德哥尔摩邀请Waymo进行自动驾驶汽车试点测试，尽管Waymo尚未正式申请。 * 这与几个月前瑞典交通部门官方禁止特斯拉在斯德哥尔摩进行FSD测试形成对比，当时给出的理由是该市“忙于其他工作”。 * 主持人认为这进一步证明了欧盟监管机构中存在的反特斯拉情绪和偏见。 * **特斯拉股价表现：** * TSLA收于417.78美元，上涨6.82%。 * 纳斯达克100指数（NDX）上涨2.62%。 * 交易量较平均水平高出13%。

Here's a summary of the podcast, including every single news item mentioned: * **Corrections from Previous Episode:** * **Tesla Superchargers for Business:** Corrected that businesses *own* the superchargers, Tesla only manages them. * **Tesla Screen Resolution:** Corrected that QHD (roughly 3.6 million pixels) is *less* than 4K (around 8 million pixels). Tesla has never had a 4K screen in its vehicles. * **Tesla AI Chips & Production:** * Elon Musk confirmed Tesla has advanced AI chip engineering teams. * Tesla is close to "taping out" AI5 (final design phase) and is starting work on AI6. * Goal: Bring a new AI chip design to volume production every 12 months. * Elon's "moonshot" statement: Expects to build chips at higher volumes than all other AI chips combined (acknowledging "AI chips" is vague). * Purpose: Save millions of lives via safe driving and advanced medical care (through Optimus). * This announcement was primarily for recruiting AI chip talent. * Elon is deeply involved, meeting with the engineering team every Tuesday and Saturday (Saturday meetings will end when AI5 is taped out). * Tesla plans vertical integration, partnering with TSMC and Samsung, and potentially building its own fab. * **AI Chip Industry Bottlenecks (Lithography):** * **Lithography** (transferring chip designs onto silicon using light) is the industry bottleneck. * **EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet)** lithography is required for features smaller than 7 nanometers (modern, advanced chips). * **ASML**, a Dutch company, is the *only* supplier of EUV lithography machines globally. * EUV machines are engineering marvels: 100,000+ components, 180 tons, $250M+ each. * ASML capacity: Shipped 60 EUV systems in 2024. Industry demand exceeds 150 units/year. ASML plans to increase capacity to only 90 units this year. * **EUV Supply Chain Vulnerability:** Involves 5,000+ suppliers; some critical parts (like high-precision mirrors) have a single source. Highly vulnerable to disruptions (geopolitical, natural disaster, logistics). * Elon's quote: "Things can only go as fast as the least lucky part of the process." * **Implication for Tesla:** These bottlenecks will limit Tesla's chip production pace, especially for scaling Robotaxies and Optimus towards 2030 and beyond. * **Tesla FSD/Optimus Hardware-Software Co-design:** * Tesla's chips are heavily co-designed with AI software teams for incredible performance, high performance per watt, and performance per dollar. * AI4 can process and understand 1 million pixels of streaming video in ~1 millisecond. * This is achieved through tightly integrated software and hardware. * Competitors using a camera-only approach for autonomy would need to design their own silicon and integrate it with their AI software. * Most competitors are not pursuing full autonomy, or use LiDAR/sensor-heavy approaches. * Julian (Tesla) highlighted the extremely low latency of the Autopilot computer (photon to neural net processing), critical for FSD's reactivity and Optimus's vision loop. * **Future of In-Car Chip Upgradability:** * Concern: If Tesla releases new chips every 12 months, will car hardware become outdated? * This conversation is premature, not expected until 2028+ (AI5 earliest mid-2027). * Tesla likely hasn't decided on retrofit/upgrade paths yet. * Most Tesla owners (99%) are unaware of or unconcerned with the silicon in their cars. * **Privacy & DeleteMe (Sponsor):** * Reminder of a past incident where Tesla employees shared thousands of invasive customer videos on an internal chat platform, leading to a US class action lawsuit (settled out of court). * Introduced DeleteMe, an American company that removes personal data from online data brokers. Offers 20% off with code "electrified." * **FSD Supervised International Rollout (v14.1.4):** * **Official:** FSD Supervised v14.1.4 is now being distributed to actual owners in South Korea (starting with Model S/X AI vehicles). * Current countries with FSD: US, Canada, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, China (small scale), South Korea. (Note: Most Australian customers are still on v13). * Rollout for Model 3/Y in South Korea is expected soon. * **EU Regulatory Environment for FSD:** * Tesla has been working over a year, giving FSD demos to regulators and sharing safety data (1M km / 620k miles safely driven on EU roads in 17 countries for internal testing). * Tesla's path: Partnering with the Dutch RDW to gain an Article 39 exemption for unregulated Level 2 behaviors (e.g., off-highway initiated lane changes with hands off). * Tesla claims changing FSD for compliance would make it unsafe/unusable, so they are seeking rule-by-rule exemptions. * **Tesla's initial claim:** RDW committed to granting Netherlands national approval in February 2026. Tesla encouraged contacting RDW to express excitement. * **RDW's official response (contradicting Tesla):** * RDW does not share details on pending applications. * They have a schedule with Tesla for Tesla to *demonstrate* FSD meets requirements in February 2026, *not* a commitment to grant approval. "Whether the schedule will be met remains to be seen." * RDW stated safety is paramount. * RDW asked the public *not* to contact them, as it wastes time and won't influence planning. * **Exemption Process (RDW's version):** Netherlands must submit an application to the European Commission on behalf of Tesla. Requires a *majority vote* within the responsible EU committee for EU-wide validity. If no majority, it's only valid in the Netherlands, and other states decide independently. * RDW also clarified that Tesla must *first* demonstrate compliance through a comprehensive test procedure with a type approval authority before an exemption application can even be submitted. * **Host's conclusion:** Tesla and RDW are clearly misaligned, with one side potentially misrepresenting the situation. Tesla's past predictions for EU/China FSD rollout (Q1 2025) were incorrect. * The host believes RDW is "pumping the brakes" and that EU regulators use "safety" as a facade to protect the struggling EU auto industry from Tesla's technological lead. * **Keys's observation:** Tesla consistently faces similar, stalling responses from EU authorities despite providing extensive data (e.g., Norway only allowing limited v13 testing, denying v14). * Widespread EU approval for FSD seems "far away" due to regulators actively slowing things down. * The **TCMV (Technical Committee on Motor Vehicles)**, made of EU member state delegates, would vote on any EU-wide exemption. * Host also acknowledges existing anti-Elon sentiment in parts of the EU population/leadership contributing to the delays. * **Legacy Auto's Stance on Autonomy & Tesla Licensing:** * Rob Werthermer (Melius Research): Tesla stock is a "must-own." Predicts hundreds of billions in value shifting to Tesla in the next five years. Tesla's lead is widening due to strategic choices (chips, vertical integration, software). * Lewis's image showed a "graveyard" for legacy auto with "no autonomy." * **Elon's response:** "I've tried to warn them and even offered to license Tesla FSD but they don't want it. It's crazy." He claims legacy auto's inquiries are for "tiny program[s] in five years with unworkable requirements." * Host's long-held view: Bearish on FSD licensing for legacy auto, as they prefer LiDAR/Nvidia and avoid acknowledging Tesla's superiority. * Host predicts legacy auto will "fail again" with off-the-shelf tools and only then might consider Tesla, by which time people will be "forced to go to Tesla." No FSD licensing expected in the "next few years." * **Tesla Robotaxi Program (Austin):** * Ethan created an unofficial fleet tracker: tesla-robotaxi-tracker.com. * Currently shows 29 active vehicles in Austin (community-sourced). * Reports of users waiting over 40 minutes for rides. * Fleet size expected to grow rapidly once safety monitors are removed (hopes within 30 days). Tesla may be gauging demand first. * **FSD 14.2 Issues:** * Host is downloading 14.2 on wife's Model Y, hasn't tested yet. * Reports of strange routing and navigation issues across FSD versions, including 14.2. * Example: 14.2 turned left-right-right-right-left instead of right, and into the wrong parking lot. * **Map data** is cited as an "Achilles heel," suggesting a need for crowd-sourced reporting (like Waze). * Question about Tesla's ability to read signs vs. just recognizing them (critical for navigation, speed limits, school zones). * Darren warned that 14.2 is "amazing at driving but still pretty bad at parking." Reports of it backing into cars in parking lots. * Anecdotes suggest 14.2 has regressed slightly in parking lot behavior, including CyberTruck issues. * **"Geofence Region Bay Unsupervised" Code:** * Discovered in software update 2025.44, suggesting potential internal testing for unsupervised FSD in California's Bay Area. * Speculation that it could be a precursor to removing safety monitors in the Bay Area, potentially in Q1 next year, following Austin. * **Tesla's Focus on Mass Reduction:** * Lars (Tesla) revealed 400 pounds were removed from the new Model X over the years. * Emphasized that "mass is serious," impacting safety, efficiency, NVH, energy consumption, and cost ("mass begets mass"). * Zach (working on Cybercab) explained how every gram not removed negatively impacts acceleration, suspension, crash structure, braking, efficiency, and performance. * Tesla's culture inherits DNA from SpaceX's rocketry principles regarding mass management. * **Hardware 3 Longevity:** * Tesla is hiring an AI engineer for reinforcement learning and distillation. * Job description: Develop "Olympiad level physical intelligence" for robots, running in real-time on local compute. * The role involves distilling large models (like FSD 14) to run on "state-of-the-art inference hardware" (i.e., Hardware 3). This implies continued support and optimization for HW3. * **Vehicle Registrations (Norway & Sweden):** * **Norway:** Tesla is set to break Volkswagen's annual record for most registrations by a single brand, a record held since 2016. * **Sweden:** Tesla's year-to-date registrations are down 68% year-over-year. * **Sweden Regulatory Bias (Waymo vs. Tesla):** * Sweden's Center Party is suggesting Stockholm invite Waymo for autonomous vehicle pilot tests, despite Waymo not having officially applied yet. * This contrasts with Sweden's transport authorities officially banning Tesla from conducting FSD tests in Stockholm just months prior, citing the city being "too busy with other work." * The host views this as further evidence of anti-Tesla sentiment and bias in EU regulatory bodies. * **Tesla Stock Performance:** * TSLA closed at $417.78, up 6.82%. * NDX was up 2.62%. * Volume was 13% above average.