Electrified - Tesla's AI Breakthrough / Tesla's AI Spend Controversy / FSD Expansion ⚡️
发布时间:2025-11-18 02:02:40
原节目
以下是Electrified播客新闻内容的中文摘要:
* **AI芯片时间表:** 埃隆·马斯克宣布AI5芯片设计审查已完成,AI6的工作也已启动。然而,AI5要到2027年中旬才能有足够产量用于特斯拉的生产线,这需要几十万块制成的板卡。这表明特斯拉将在相当长一段时间内继续使用AI4,显示出对AI4实现无人监督FSD能力的强大信心。
* **擎天柱生产与AI5:** 主持人质疑埃隆关于擎天柱(Optimus)的生产时间表,认为如果擎天柱在2027年中之前投产,其产量将非常低,可能最初在工厂环境中会搭载AI4。他认为,擎天柱的生产不排除会等到AI5准备就绪。
* **AI5功耗突破:** 埃隆表示,AI5的功耗可降低至250瓦(低于最初估计的330-400瓦)。这对擎天柱来说是一个“大突破”,可能显著延长其运行时间(例如,在2.3千瓦时电池上从5.75小时延长到9.2小时),同时也惠及车载应用。
* **特斯拉定制硬件优势:** 埃隆重申,特斯拉的专用AI5推理芯片对其目的而言是优越的,表示即使免费,他们也不会在汽车和机器人中使用任何其他芯片,这凸显了他们通过定制硬件和软件集成所带来的竞争优势。
* **擎天柱的长期愿景:** 埃隆继续宣扬他长达数十年的愿景,即擎天柱将消除贫困并提供普遍的高收入。
* **Robotaxi在宾夕法尼亚州进行验证:** 带有激光雷达的特斯拉车辆在宾夕法尼亚州伊诺拉附近被发现进行路测验证,暗示未来在东北部地区扩展服务,尽管目前宾夕法尼亚州尚无立即招聘Robotaxi运营人员的计划。主持人指出,埃隆2025年Robotaxi目标(在8-10个城市部署1500辆车)越来越难以实现。
* **与中国脱钩:** 特斯拉正在加快计划,在未来1-2年内从其美国制造的汽车中淘汰中国制造的零部件,要求供应商从其他地方采购。磷酸铁锂电池是一个关键挑战,LG密歇根工厂的供应预计要到2027年8月。此举预计将增加零部件成本。
* **AI资本支出策略:** 投资经理Gavin Baker强调了特斯拉高效的AI资本支出,指出客户实际上支付了推理计算的费用,并且特斯拉拥有全球第二大的用于预训练的Hoppper集群。埃隆证实,AI训练不是FSD的限制因素,但将是擎天柱的限制因素,这促使了Core Text2的开发。特斯拉累计的AI相关资本支出估计约为100亿美元。
* **北达科他州直销法案诉讼:** 在北达科他州监管机构拒绝其在法戈和俾斯麦新地点的许可证后,特斯拉起诉该州,理由是该州有一项禁止制造商直销的规定。听证会定于12月举行。
* **超级充电站实时定价扩展:** 特斯拉将实时定价扩展到加利福尼亚州、新泽西州、纽约州、佛罗里达州和伊利诺伊州的另外550个超级充电站。该系统在插枪时锁定价格,旨在通过根据需求调整费率来减少拥堵并提高利用率,并略微倾向于提供更便宜的价格。
* **FSD公众与分析师反应:** 新的特斯拉车主和TD Cohen的分析师对FSD v14表达了强烈的积极情绪,TD Cohen建议自动驾驶汽车可能在2026年下半年成为特斯拉收入的“实质性财务贡献者”。
* **FSD v14在布拉格(Cybertruck):** 一辆搭载FSD v14(从美国进口,区域设置未更新)的Cybertruck在没有地图数据或导航的情况下,成功在捷克布拉格的街道上行驶,展示了该系统的稳健性,尽管出现了一些小问题,比如卡在环形交叉路口。
* **特斯拉壁挂式连接器扩展:** 特斯拉报告称,在过去两周内新增了550个商业场所和18个私人场所(公寓/工作场所)的壁挂式连接器,这表明其二级充电基础设施的显著增长。
* **福特在亚马逊销售二手车:** 福特现在效仿现代,通过亚马逊在洛杉矶、西雅图和达拉斯销售认证二手车,要求客户从经销商处提车。
* **美国机械师短缺:** 福特首席执行官Jim Farley强调美国合格机械师严重短缺(仅福特就有5000个空缺职位,有些年薪达12万美元),他将此归因于对职业学校投资不足。埃隆部分同意那些愿意从事有挑战性体力劳动的人员短缺。
* **百事公司半挂车充电站:** 百事公司计划在加利福尼亚州河滨市建造一个新的半挂车充电站,配备四个半挂车充电器、六个壁挂式连接器和电池储能系统。
* **电动汽车租赁合同到期:** 今年约有24.3万辆电动汽车租赁合同到期(可能达到33万辆),是2025年到期量的三倍。尽管94%的电动汽车车主打算继续使用电动汽车,但在今年退还租赁电动汽车的客户中,只有62%真正选择了另一辆电动汽车。
* **FSD车展试驾:** 特斯拉在墨尔本电动汽车展上进行了600多次FSD试驾。
* **Luminar的财务困境:** 据报道,激光雷达公司Luminar在五年合同取消后与沃尔沃(其主要客户)发生争执,面临破产威胁、贷款违约、裁员和美国证券交易委员会的调查。
* **埃隆关于比尔·盖茨做空:** 埃隆·马斯克建议比尔·盖茨平仓其长期持有的特斯拉空头头寸。
* **特斯拉股票表现:** 特斯拉股价收于408.92美元,上涨1.13%,成交量高于平均水平19%。
Here's a summary of the news from the Electrified podcast:
* **AI Chip Timelines:** Elon Musk announced the AI5 chip design review is complete, and AI6 work has begun. However, AI5 won't be available in sufficient volume for Tesla production lines until mid-2027, requiring hundreds of thousands of completed boards. This suggests Tesla will continue with AI4 for an extended period, indicating strong confidence in AI4's capabilities for achieving unsupervised FSD.
* **Optimus Production & AI5:** The host questions Elon's Optimus production timelines, suggesting that if Optimus production happens before mid-2027, it will be in very low volumes, possibly starting with AI4 in a factory setting. He posits there's a non-zero chance Optimus production might wait until AI5 is ready.
* **AI5 Power Consumption Breakthrough:** Elon stated AI5's power consumption could be reduced to 250 watts (down from an initial estimate of 330-400 watts). This is a "big deal" for Optimus, potentially extending its run time significantly (e.g., from 5.75 hours to 9.2 hours on a 2.3 kWh battery), and also benefits in-car applications.
* **Tesla's Custom Hardware Advantage:** Elon reiterated that Tesla's specialized AI5 inference chip is superior for their purposes, stating they wouldn't use any other chip in their cars and robots even if it were free, highlighting their competitive edge from custom hardware and software integration.
* **Optimus Long-Term Vision:** Elon continues to promote his multi-decade vision where Optimus will eliminate poverty and provide universal high income.
* **Robotaxi Validation in Pennsylvania:** Tesla vehicles with LiDAR were spotted validating near Inola, Pennsylvania, hinting at future service expansion in the Northeast, despite no immediate plans for Robotaxi hiring in PA. The host notes Elon's 2025 Robotaxi targets (1500 vehicles in 8-10 cities) are becoming difficult to meet.
* **Decoupling from China:** Tesla is accelerating plans to eliminate China-made components from its American-built cars within the next 1-2 years, requiring suppliers to source parts elsewhere. LFP batteries are a key challenge, with LG's Michigan supply not expected until August 2027. This move is expected to increase component costs.
* **AI CapEx Strategy:** Investment manager Gavin Baker highlighted Tesla's efficient AI CapEx, noting that customers effectively pay for inference compute, and Tesla has the second-largest coherent Hopper cluster for pre-training. Elon confirmed AI training wasn't the limiting factor for FSD but will be for Optimus, leading to the development of Core Text2. Tesla's cumulative AI-related CapEx is estimated around $10 billion.
* **North Dakota Direct Sales Lawsuit:** Tesla is suing North Dakota after regulators denied licenses for new locations in Fargo and Bismarck, citing a state rule barring direct sales by manufacturers. A hearing is scheduled for December.
* **Supercharger Live Pricing Expansion:** Tesla expanded live pricing to 550 additional Supercharger sites in California, New Jersey, New York, Florida, and Illinois. The system locks the price when plugging in and aims to reduce congestion and increase utilization by adjusting rates based on demand, with a slight bias towards cheaper prices.
* **FSD Public & Analyst Reactions:** New Tesla owners and analysts from TD Cohen expressed strong positive sentiment for FSD v14, with TD Cohen suggesting autonomous vehicles could be a "financially material contributor" to Tesla's revenue by H2 2026.
* **FSD v14 in Prague (Cybertruck):** A Cybertruck with FSD v14 (imported from the US with its region not updated) successfully navigated the streets of Prague, Czech Republic, without map data or navigation, demonstrating the system's robustness despite minor issues like getting stuck in a roundabout.
* **Tesla Wall Connector Expansion:** Tesla reported opening 550 business sites and 18 private sites (apartments/workplaces) with new Wall Connectors in the last two weeks, indicating significant Level 2 charging infrastructure growth.
* **Ford Selling Used Cars on Amazon:** Ford is now following Hyundai's lead by selling certified pre-owned vehicles through Amazon in LA, Seattle, and Dallas, requiring customers to pick up from dealerships.
* **US Mechanic Shortage:** Ford CEO Jim Farley highlighted a severe shortage of qualified mechanics in the US (5,000 unfilled jobs at Ford alone, some paying $120k/year), attributing it to a lack of investment in trade schools. Elon partially agreed on the shortage of people willing to do challenging physical work.
* **Pepsi Semi-Charger:** Pepsi plans to build a new semi-charger site in Riverside, California, featuring four semi-chargers, six wall connectors, and battery storage.
* **EV Lease Expirations:** Approximately 243,000 EV leases are set to expire this year (potentially 330,000), triple the 2025 volume. While 94% of EV owners intend to stay electric, only 62% of those returning leased EVs this year actually opted for another EV.
* **FSD Test Drives at Shows:** Tesla conducted over 600 FSD test drives at the Everything Electric Melbourne show.
* **Luminar's Financial Woes:** LiDAR company Luminar is reportedly fighting with Volvo (a major customer) after the cancellation of a five-year contract, facing bankruptcy threats, loan defaults, layoffs, and an SEC investigation.
* **Elon on Bill Gates' Short Position:** Elon Musk advised Bill Gates to close out his long-held short position against Tesla.
* **Tesla Stock Performance:** Tesla stock closed at $408.92, up 1.13%, with volume 19% above average.