Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly September 20, 2025
发布时间:2025-09-20 11:49:58
原节目
以下是内容的中文翻译:
本周的“市场周报”讨论了近期市场趋势、日本货币政策的重大转变以及拜登总统的新移民政策。报告人首先指出,主要市场指数近期创下历史新高,暗示可能存在泡沫。虽然他承认可能进一步上涨,但他指出多头和空头之间的观点存在分歧,前者认为这是早期阶段,后者则预计即将崩盘。报告人认为,资产价格膨胀的主要驱动因素是美联储的鸽派立场,包括预期的降息。然而,他指出,在美联储会议之后,曲线上的利率上升,表明市场将美联储的立场解读为比预期更为鹰派。
他还强调了季度期权到期和摩根大通的预期交易对市场价格的影响。然后,他将重点转移到两个关键进展:日本央行(BOJ)解除股票购买以及拜登总统的新移民政策,特别是关于H1B签证。
与大多数正在降息的发达国家不同,由于持续的通货膨胀,日本央行仍在考虑提高利率。日本央行行长植田和男认为,日本的人口老龄化正在加剧通胀压力。虽然日本央行在上次会议上维持利率不变,但反对的声音表明可能很快就会加息。更重要的是,日本央行已经开始解除其股票购买,这是一项旨在应对数十年的通货紧缩和通货紧缩的战略。这包括购买ETF以刺激财富效应。日本央行目前的股票持有量接近5000亿美元。
报告人指出,日本央行计划每年出售约60亿日元(60亿美元)的ETF。虽然这仅占其总持有量的一小部分,但该公告仍然影响了股市,表明了投资者心理的重要性。更重要的是,进一步加息的前景正在将10年期日本国债收益率推至数十年来的高位,这可能会给全球收益率带来上行压力。这也可能促使日本投资者遣返他们的投资,出售美元和欧元资产,转而购买收益率更高的日本国债,从而可能影响外国资产市场。
讨论随后转向拜登总统的新移民政策,特别是H1B签证计划。报告人将这项新政策描述为对外国劳工征税,以10万美元的费用增加的形式体现。这旨在激励公司雇用美国工人,符合总统的“美国制造”议程。报告人强调了围绕H1B签证的争论,科技公司认为它们对于维持技术领先地位至关重要,而美国工人通常认为它们是压低工资的一种手段。
增加费用旨在确保只有具备特殊技能的外国工人才能通过H1B计划被引入。他认为,该政策旨在在吸引顶尖人才和保护美国就业岗位之间取得平衡,特别是对于计算机科学专业的毕业生,他们正面临着不断上升的失业率。
最后,报告人谈到了新的黄金签证计划,该计划为支付100万美元费用的人提供获得绿卡的途径。虽然黄金签证计划在财政困难的国家很常见,但在美国引入它们可能会吸引寻求居住权和进入美国市场的富裕人士。 虽然黄金签证计划通常会提供投资机会,并在几年后提供回报,但美国的黄金签证计划仅仅提供捐赠的机会。报告人认为,这将产生一些收入,特别是来自那些寻求安全港或为其家庭提供备用计划的人。
报告人还提到了总统关于新的产业政策的建议,即拿出5500亿美元的投资基金,试图投资更多的工厂,或者可能对美国制造业提供某种支持。
This week's "Markets Weekly" discusses recent market trends, a significant shift in Japan's monetary policy, and President Biden's new immigration policies. The speaker begins by noting the recent all-time highs in major market indices, suggesting a potential bubble. While acknowledging the possibility of further gains, he notes a divergence in opinion between bulls and bears, with the former seeing it as early stages and the latter anticipating an impending collapse. The primary driver of inflated asset prices, according to the speaker, is the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including projected rate cuts. However, he points out that after the Fed meeting, interest rates along the curve rose, indicating the market interpreted the Fed's stance as more hawkish than expected.
He also highlights the impact of the quarterly options expiry and the anticipated JP Morgan trade on market prices. He then shifts the focus to two key developments: the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwinding of equity purchases and President Biden's new immigration policy, specifically regarding H1B visas.
Unlike most developed countries that are cutting rates, the Bank of Japan is still considering raising interest rates due to persistent inflation. Governor Ueda believes that Japan's aging population is contributing to inflationary pressures. While the BOJ held rates steady at its last meeting, dissenting voices suggest a potential hike is imminent. More significantly, the BOJ has begun to unwind its stock purchases, a strategy implemented to combat decades of disinflation and deflation. This involved buying ETFs to stimulate a wealth effect. The BOJ's stock holdings currently amount to nearly $500 billion.
The speaker notes that the BOJ plans to sell roughly 6 billion yen ($6 billion USD) of ETFs per year. While this represents a negligible portion of their total holdings, the announcement still impacted the stock market, indicating the importance of investor psychology. More significantly, the prospect of further rate hikes is pushing 10-year JGB yields to multi-decade highs, which could exert upward pressure on global yields. This could also prompt Japanese investors to repatriate their investments, selling off dollar and euro assets in favor of higher-yielding JGBs, potentially impacting foreign asset markets.
The discussion then turns to President Biden's new immigration policy, particularly the H1B visa program. The speaker describes the new policy as a tax on foreign labor in the form of a 100,000 fee increase. This aims to incentivize companies to hire American workers, aligning with the President's "Made in America" agenda. The speaker highlights the debate surrounding H1B visas, with tech companies arguing they are essential for maintaining technological leadership, while American workers often view them as a means to suppress wages.
The increased fee is intended to ensure that only exceptionally skilled foreign workers are brought in through the H1B program. He believes that the policy aims to strike a balance between attracting top talent and protecting American jobs, especially for computer science graduates who are experiencing rising unemployment rates.
Finally, the speaker touches on the new golden visa program, offering a path to a green card for individuals who pay a million-dollar fee. While golden visa programs are common in financially struggling countries, their introduction in the US could attract wealthy individuals seeking residency and access to US markets. Although golden visa programs tend to offer opportunities for investment, which offer return after some years, the US Golden Visa program merely offer a chance to donate. The speaker believes that this will generate some revenue, particularly from individuals seeking a safe haven or a backup plan for their families.
The speaker also mentions the President's suggestion of new industrial policy, taking 550 billion investment fund trying to invest in more factories or maybe some kind of support for American manufacturing.