This week's "Markets Weekly" discusses recent market trends, a significant shift in Japan's monetary policy, and President Biden's new immigration policies. The speaker begins by noting the recent all-time highs in major market indices, suggesting a potential bubble. While acknowledging the possibility of further gains, he notes a divergence in opinion between bulls and bears, with the former seeing it as early stages and the latter anticipating an impending collapse. The primary driver of inflated asset prices, according to the speaker, is the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, including projected rate cuts. However, he points out that after the Fed meeting, interest rates along the curve rose, indicating the market interpreted the Fed's stance as more hawkish than expected.
He also highlights the impact of the quarterly options expiry and the anticipated JP Morgan trade on market prices. He then shifts the focus to two key developments: the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unwinding of equity purchases and President Biden's new immigration policy, specifically regarding H1B visas.
Unlike most developed countries that are cutting rates, the Bank of Japan is still considering raising interest rates due to persistent inflation. Governor Ueda believes that Japan's aging population is contributing to inflationary pressures. While the BOJ held rates steady at its last meeting, dissenting voices suggest a potential hike is imminent. More significantly, the BOJ has begun to unwind its stock purchases, a strategy implemented to combat decades of disinflation and deflation. This involved buying ETFs to stimulate a wealth effect. The BOJ's stock holdings currently amount to nearly $500 billion.
The speaker notes that the BOJ plans to sell roughly 6 billion yen ($6 billion USD) of ETFs per year. While this represents a negligible portion of their total holdings, the announcement still impacted the stock market, indicating the importance of investor psychology. More significantly, the prospect of further rate hikes is pushing 10-year JGB yields to multi-decade highs, which could exert upward pressure on global yields. This could also prompt Japanese investors to repatriate their investments, selling off dollar and euro assets in favor of higher-yielding JGBs, potentially impacting foreign asset markets.
The discussion then turns to President Biden's new immigration policy, particularly the H1B visa program. The speaker describes the new policy as a tax on foreign labor in the form of a 100,000 fee increase. This aims to incentivize companies to hire American workers, aligning with the President's "Made in America" agenda. The speaker highlights the debate surrounding H1B visas, with tech companies arguing they are essential for maintaining technological leadership, while American workers often view them as a means to suppress wages.
The increased fee is intended to ensure that only exceptionally skilled foreign workers are brought in through the H1B program. He believes that the policy aims to strike a balance between attracting top talent and protecting American jobs, especially for computer science graduates who are experiencing rising unemployment rates.
Finally, the speaker touches on the new golden visa program, offering a path to a green card for individuals who pay a million-dollar fee. While golden visa programs are common in financially struggling countries, their introduction in the US could attract wealthy individuals seeking residency and access to US markets. Although golden visa programs tend to offer opportunities for investment, which offer return after some years, the US Golden Visa program merely offer a chance to donate. The speaker believes that this will generate some revenue, particularly from individuals seeking a safe haven or a backup plan for their families.
The speaker also mentions the President's suggestion of new industrial policy, taking 550 billion investment fund trying to invest in more factories or maybe some kind of support for American manufacturing.