Bg2 Pod - China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner
发布时间:2025-08-28 23:51:07
原节目
以下是内容的中文翻译:
比尔·格利 (Bill Gurley) 和布拉德·格斯特纳 (Brad Gerstner) 进行了关于中国的详细讨论,重点关注技术、创新、竞争以及地缘政治格局。格利最近从中国回来,分享了他自新冠疫情开始以来首次访问中国后的经历和见解。他强调了理解中国的进步及其对美国和全球市场的影响的重要性。
格利注意到他在中国遇到的人的一个重要观点:中国的创业者和风险投资家广泛地研究西方,而西方却没有对中国进行同等程度的审视。这促使格利希望亲身了解中国的发展。他还提到了丹·王的著作《疾速》(Breakneck),该书将中国以工程为导向的领导层与华盛顿特区拥有法律背景的决策者进行了对比,并考察了中国的省份竞争。
谈话深入到具体行业,特别是汽车行业。格利描述了他对比亚迪(全球最大的电动汽车制造商)和小米(一家成功进入汽车市场的手机公司)的访问。他强调了中国工厂的高度自动化及其成本竞争力。他提到了福特首席执行官吉姆·法利 (Jim Farley) 对小米的访问,法利表达了对中国电动汽车的质量和成本效率的极度尊重,并表示竞争是全球性的,而且非常重要。
格利和格斯特纳探讨了中国在创新方面的方法,挑战了中国只复制西方想法的观点。格利以 TikTok 为例,认为它是早于西方同类产品的中国创新。他们讨论了中国大量的AI研究人员,强调他们确实在太空、能源和自动化等领域进行创新和竞争。
谈话触及了中国在能源生产(特别是核能和太阳能)方面的日益增长的主导地位,进而讨论了中国是威胁还是仅仅在工程方面做得更好。格利还提出了一个观点,即不存在真正的垄断,更多的是对竞争的接受和推动行业进步的意愿。
讨论随后转向了关于美国对华政策和战略的讨论。虽然格利承认国家安全问题以及某些行业需要回流,但他警告不要采取一刀切的脱钩或对抗性手段。格斯特纳建议采取竞争、回流和使用关税的中间路线。
讨论涉及了对技术移民的担忧以及美国近期影响中国学生的政策的影响。格利指出,中国现在正在邀请外国学生到他们的大学学习技术,这可能会吸引美国正在排斥的人才。
格利和格斯特纳总结谈话,呼吁美国专注于自身的改进和竞争力,而不是仅仅专注于减缓中国的发展。他们建议在某些中国具有领先优势的行业,对与中国公司建立合资企业持开放态度。格利鼓励大家在做出决定之前,寻求务实和准确的信息,并再次提及《疾速》一书。他们强调需要进行自我反思,并专注于加速美国自身的创新和竞争力,并鼓励美国“跑得更快”。
Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner engage in a detailed discussion about China, focusing on technology, innovation, competition, and the geopolitical landscape. Gurley recently returned from China and shares his experiences and insights after having not visited since COVID began. He emphasizes the importance of understanding China's advancements and its impact on the US and global markets.
Gurley notes a key observation from someone he spoke with in China: Chinese founders and VCs study the West extensively, while the West doesn't reciprocate the same level of scrutiny toward China. This prompts Gurley's desire to learn firsthand about China's developments. He also references Dan Wang's book "Breakneck," which contrasts China's engineering-focused leadership with the legal background of Washington D.C. decision-makers, and examines provincial competition.
The conversation delves into specific industries, particularly the automotive sector. Gurley describes his visits to BYD, the world's largest EV manufacturer, and Xiaomi, a phone company that has successfully entered the car market. He highlights the high level of automation in Chinese factories and their cost competitiveness. He mentions Ford CEO Jim Farley's visit to Xiaomi, where Farley expressed extreme respect for the quality and cost efficiency of Chinese EVs, stating the competition is global and important.
Gurley and Gerstner explore China's approach to innovation, challenging the notion that China only copies Western ideas. Gurley refers to TikTok as an example of Chinese innovation that predates Western counterparts. They discuss the high number of AI researchers in China, emphasizing that they are indeed innovating and competing in areas such as space, energy, and automation.
The conversation touches on China's increasing dominance in energy production, specifically nuclear and solar, leading into a discussion on whether China is a threat or just better at engineering. Gurley also brings up the opinion that there is no real monopoloies as much as an acceptance of competition and driving the industry forward.
The discussion then shifts to a discussion on American policy and strategy regarding China. While Gurley acknowledges national security concerns and the need for re-shoring certain industries, he cautions against blanket decoupling or antagonistic approaches. Gerstner suggests a middle-ground approach of competition, re-shoring, and the use of tariffs.
The discussion addresses concerns about skilled immigration and the impact of recent policies in the US that affect Chinese students. Gurley notes that China is now inviting foreign students to study technology in their universities, potentially attracting talent that the US is pushing away.
Gurley and Gerstner wrap up the conversation with a call for the US to focus on its own improvements and competitiveness, rather than solely focusing on slowing down China. They suggest open-mindedness towards JVs with Chinese companies in certain sectors where China has a lead. Gurley encourages everyone to seek pragmatic and accurate information before making decisions, referencing the book called "Breakneck." They emphasize the need for self-reflection and a focus on accelerating the US's own innovation and competitiveness, and encourage America to "Run a faster race ourselves."