Here's a summary of the "Markets Weekly" video transcript:
The speaker begins by noting that despite a slow summer week, the major equity indexes have recovered from recent losses, with the NASDAQ even reaching a new all-time high. However, interesting developments have occurred in trade and politics, which will be the focus of the week's discussion. The speaker outlines three key topics: trade policy winners and losers and a preview of Trump's upcoming chips policy, developments in the race for the next Fed chair, and an update on non-farm payroll revisions based on a former BLS commissioner's insights.
Regarding trade, Apple is identified as the clear winner. Its stock price surged over 10% after Tim Cook visited the White House and pledged significant investments in US-based iPhone manufacturing. Cook also presented the President with a gold and glass sculpture. Although building factories in the US might affect Apple's profit margins, the move pleased the market and boosted the stock. Switzerland is the big loser as it faces a 39% tariff on imports to the United States. The Swiss president's attempts to negotiate with the Trump administration failed, and she returned empty-handed. The speaker suggests that Switzerland will likely have to pledge investments in the United States to ease tariffs. The speaker also hinted on the President’s new chip tariff policy. The new policy will allow chip companies not to pay tariffs if committed to building in America. The President believes that this will affect those chips made in China and might also lead to some form of decoupling.
The discussion then shifts to the race for the next Fed chair. While Kevin Haset and Kevin Warsh were initially considered top candidates, Governor Waller is emerging as a frontrunner. Waller has publicly appealed to the market, emphasizing his market-friendly profile to avoid potential bond market sell-offs. He's gained traction within Trump's circle, but his success hinges on a crucial interview with the President. Towards the end of the week, James Bullard and Mark Simmelon were mentioned. J-Powell could stay in the Fed once the term is over. He could remain a thorn in the President’s side as he could influence policy. Also, appointing Governor Waller could make J-Powell more comfortable leaving the board and give the Trump administration a chance to appoint someone else. To fill Governor Kugler vacating seat, the President nominated Steve Moran. Steve is very close to the President and advocates for rate cuts. He could also be an advocate for more changes in the governance and culture of the Fed.
Lastly, the video provides an update on recent job revisions by the BLS. The speaker notes that these revisions were the largest in a long time, raising concerns about the BLS's data accuracy. The discussion references a former BLS commissioner (a Trump appointee) who was interviewed on the Odd Lots podcast. The former commissioner explained that revisions occur because businesses are slow to respond to surveys. About 68% complete surveys within the first month. BLS keeps window open for 2 months. The rate rises to about 83% in the second month. By the third month, 93-94% of businesses has responded. The low initial response rate leads to revisions. Additionally, these revisions are more common during economic turning points, hinting at a potential economic slowdown or recession.