Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly August 9, 2025
发布时间:2025-08-09 15:08:29
原节目
好的,以下是该内容的中文翻译:
这是“市场周报”视频文字稿的摘要:
演讲者首先指出,尽管夏季周市场表现平缓,但主要的股票指数已经从近期的损失中恢复过来,纳斯达克指数甚至创下了历史新高。然而,在贸易和政治方面发生了一些有趣的发展,这将是本周讨论的重点。演讲者概述了三个关键议题:贸易政策的赢家和输家以及特朗普即将出台的芯片政策的预览,下一任美联储主席人选的进展,以及基于前劳工统计局(BLS)局长见解的非农就业数据修正情况的更新。
关于贸易,苹果公司被认为是明显的赢家。在蒂姆·库克访问白宫并承诺在美国本土进行大量iPhone制造投资后,其股价飙升超过10%。库克还向总统赠送了一件黄金和玻璃雕塑。虽然在美国建厂可能会影响苹果的利润率,但这一举动取悦了市场并提振了股价。瑞士是最大的输家,因为它面临着对美国出口产品39%的关税。瑞士总统与特朗普政府的谈判尝试失败,空手而归。演讲者认为瑞士可能需要承诺在美国进行投资以缓解关税。 演讲者还暗示了总统的新芯片关税政策。 新的政策将允许芯片公司承诺在美国建厂,从而免除关税。 总统认为这会影响在中国制造的芯片,并且还可能导致某种形式的脱钩。
讨论随后转向了下一任美联储主席的竞争。 虽然凯文·哈塞特和凯文·沃什最初被认为是热门候选人,但州长沃勒正在成为领跑者。沃勒公开向市场发出呼吁,强调他亲市场的形象,以避免潜在的债券市场抛售。 他在特朗普的圈子里获得了支持,但他的成功取决于与总统的一次关键会面。 在一周即将结束的时候,提到了詹姆斯·布拉德和马克·西姆梅隆。 杰罗姆·鲍威尔有可能在本届任期结束后继续留在美联储。 他可能会继续让总统感到棘手,因为他可能会影响政策。 此外,任命州长沃勒可能会让杰罗姆·鲍威尔更愿意离开委员会,并让特朗普政府有机会任命其他人。 为了填补州长库格勒的空缺席位,总统提名了史蒂夫·莫兰。 史蒂夫与总统关系非常密切,并主张降息。 他也可能是美联储治理和文化方面更多变革的倡导者。
最后,该视频提供了关于劳工统计局最近对就业数据修正的更新。 演讲者指出,这些修正是有史以来最大的,引发了人们对劳工统计局数据准确性的担忧。 讨论参考了Odd Lots播客采访的一位前劳工统计局局长(特朗普的任命)。 前局长解释说,之所以会出现修正,是因为企业回复调查的速度很慢。 大约68%的企业在第一个月内完成调查。 劳工统计局将窗口期保持开放两个月。 第二个月,这一比例上升到大约83%。 到第三个月,93-94%的企业已经回复。 初步回复率低导致了修正。 此外,这些修正更常见于经济转折点,暗示着潜在的经济放缓或衰退。
Here's a summary of the "Markets Weekly" video transcript:
The speaker begins by noting that despite a slow summer week, the major equity indexes have recovered from recent losses, with the NASDAQ even reaching a new all-time high. However, interesting developments have occurred in trade and politics, which will be the focus of the week's discussion. The speaker outlines three key topics: trade policy winners and losers and a preview of Trump's upcoming chips policy, developments in the race for the next Fed chair, and an update on non-farm payroll revisions based on a former BLS commissioner's insights.
Regarding trade, Apple is identified as the clear winner. Its stock price surged over 10% after Tim Cook visited the White House and pledged significant investments in US-based iPhone manufacturing. Cook also presented the President with a gold and glass sculpture. Although building factories in the US might affect Apple's profit margins, the move pleased the market and boosted the stock. Switzerland is the big loser as it faces a 39% tariff on imports to the United States. The Swiss president's attempts to negotiate with the Trump administration failed, and she returned empty-handed. The speaker suggests that Switzerland will likely have to pledge investments in the United States to ease tariffs. The speaker also hinted on the President’s new chip tariff policy. The new policy will allow chip companies not to pay tariffs if committed to building in America. The President believes that this will affect those chips made in China and might also lead to some form of decoupling.
The discussion then shifts to the race for the next Fed chair. While Kevin Haset and Kevin Warsh were initially considered top candidates, Governor Waller is emerging as a frontrunner. Waller has publicly appealed to the market, emphasizing his market-friendly profile to avoid potential bond market sell-offs. He's gained traction within Trump's circle, but his success hinges on a crucial interview with the President. Towards the end of the week, James Bullard and Mark Simmelon were mentioned. J-Powell could stay in the Fed once the term is over. He could remain a thorn in the President’s side as he could influence policy. Also, appointing Governor Waller could make J-Powell more comfortable leaving the board and give the Trump administration a chance to appoint someone else. To fill Governor Kugler vacating seat, the President nominated Steve Moran. Steve is very close to the President and advocates for rate cuts. He could also be an advocate for more changes in the governance and culture of the Fed.
Lastly, the video provides an update on recent job revisions by the BLS. The speaker notes that these revisions were the largest in a long time, raising concerns about the BLS's data accuracy. The discussion references a former BLS commissioner (a Trump appointee) who was interviewed on the Odd Lots podcast. The former commissioner explained that revisions occur because businesses are slow to respond to surveys. About 68% complete surveys within the first month. BLS keeps window open for 2 months. The rate rises to about 83% in the second month. By the third month, 93-94% of businesses has responded. The low initial response rate leads to revisions. Additionally, these revisions are more common during economic turning points, hinting at a potential economic slowdown or recession.