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Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly June 7, 2025

发布时间:2025-06-07 14:52:26   原节目
以下是对内容的中文翻译: 这段“每周市场观察”视频总结了6月7日当周影响股市的关键事件,重点关注了意料之外的“随机”事件以及更具体的经济数据和政策决策。 演讲者首先强调了标准普尔500指数突破6000点,并将本周市场波动归因于引人注目的突发事件和基本面数据的发布。他将讨论分为“随机事件”和“有内容的事”,后者涵盖数据、关税和央行行动。 确定了三个“随机事件”: 1. **乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯:** 本周开始时,有消息称乌克兰成功地对俄罗斯境内深处的敏感军事资产发动了无人机袭击。这一事件加剧了紧张局势,暗示俄乌冲突可能会恶化。据报道,特朗普总统和普京总统之间的通话,强化了人们对冲突将继续的印象,普京暗示将采取强硬回应。这种未来的军事回应被视为市场潜在的避险事件。 2. **关税传言:** 特朗普总统考虑将铝关税提高到50%,主要影响来自墨西哥和加拿大的进口。还有传言称,白宫正在寻求其他国家的最终贸易报价,可能会将它们整合到关税讨论中。尽管演讲者对关税倡议的影响和方向表示怀疑,但特朗普总统还是与中国国家主席习近平通了电话,讨论了对稀土出口放缓影响美国制造业的担忧。通话取得了积极成果,据报道,中国放松了出口限制,并计划两国总统可能举行面对面会晤。 3. **马斯克-特朗普口角:** 伊隆·马斯克和特朗普总统之间爆发了令人惊讶的公开争论,特朗普暗示他可能会撤销马斯克公司的联邦合同,并提出了大胆的指控。这场争端对特斯拉的股价产生了负面影响,更广泛地说,引发了人们对美国法治的担忧,因为它看起来像是政府干预私营公司。演讲者表示希望双方能够和解,并指出特朗普的人际关系具有周期性。 接下来,演讲者讨论了更具体的经济发展: * **就业市场报告:** 非农就业报告略好于预期,但仔细观察会发现,就业创造明显放缓,考虑到经济放缓和移民减少,这被认为是正常的。尽管工资增长好于预期,失业率维持在4.2%等积极因素,但市场反应强烈,股票、债券收益率和美元均大幅上涨。市场预计今年降息次数不到两次,这表明许多投资者已经为一份更疲软的报告做好了准备。劳动力市场正在放缓,但没有崩溃,尽管失业率正在逐渐上升。 * **纽约联邦储备银行关税研究:** 纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究调查了纽约市地区的公司,以评估它们对关税的反应。调查结果表明,大多数公司正在将关税部分或全部转嫁给消费者。一些公司也在购买更多的美国产品以避免关税,从而使国内生产商受益。长期影响将取决于关税被认为是暂时的还是永久的。该研究还显示,一些公司正在利用这个机会提高未直接受关税影响的商品的价格。 * **欧洲央行会议:** 欧洲中央银行(ECB)降低了利率,并暗示他们正接近降息周期的尾声。预计明年的通货膨胀率将低于其目标,促使欧洲央行变得更加谨慎。能源价格一直很低,欧元走强,这降低了进口成本,但也降低了出口竞争力。市场预计今年欧洲央行只会再降息一次。消息传出后,欧元走强,因为随着美联储可能在今年晚些时候降息,预计利率差异将缩小。 最后,演讲者提到了另一条“随机新闻”:富国银行解除资产上限,这可能意味着对美国信贷创造和银行业的影响。

This "Markets Weekly" video summarizes the key events impacting the stock market during the week of June 7th, focusing on both unexpected, "random" events and more concrete economic data and policy decisions. The speaker begins by highlighting the S&P 500's surge past 6,000, attributing the week's market movements to a combination of headline-grabbing incidents and fundamental data releases. He divides the discussion into "random stuff" and "bit of butter stuff," encompassing data, tariffs, and central bank actions. Three "random events" are identified: 1. **Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia:** The week started with news of a successful Ukrainian drone attack deep inside Russia, targeting sensitive military assets. This event escalated tensions and hinted at a potentially worsening Russia-Ukraine conflict. A reported call between Presidents Trump and Putin reinforced the impression that the conflict would continue, with Putin hinting at a strong response. This future military response is seen as a potential risk-off event for the markets. 2. **Tariff Chatter:** President Trump considered raising aluminum tariffs to 50%, primarily impacting imports from Mexico and Canada. There were also rumors of the White House seeking final trade offers from other countries, possibly consolidating them into the tariff discussions. Although the speaker expressed skepticism about the impact and direction of the tariff initiatives, President Trump engaged in a call with President Xi of China to address concerns about slow-walking of rare earth exports affecting U.S. manufacturing. The call yielded a positive outcome, with China reportedly loosening export restrictions, and a potential in-person meeting between the two presidents planned. 3. **Musk-Trump Spat:** A surprising public disagreement between Elon Musk and President Trump emerged, with Trump suggesting he might pull federal contracts from Musk's companies and making bold accusations. This dispute negatively affected Tesla's stock price and, more broadly, raised concerns about the rule of law in the U.S., as it seemed like government interference in a private company. The speaker expressed hope for a reconciliation, noting the cyclical nature of Trump's relationships. Moving onto the more concrete economic developments, the speaker discussed: * **The Jobs Market Report:** The non-farm payroll report came in slightly better than expected, but a closer look reveals a clear trend of deceleration in job creation, which is considered normal given the moderating economy and reduced immigration. Despite positive aspects like better-than-expected wage growth and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2%, the market reacted strongly, with stocks, bond yields, and the dollar all surging. The market is pricing in fewer than two interest rate cuts for the year, suggesting many investors were prepared for a weaker report. The labor market is moderating but not collapsing, although the unemployment rate is gradually increasing. * **New York Fed Tariff Study:** A study by the New York Fed surveyed companies in the New York City area to gauge their reaction to tariffs. The findings indicate that most companies are passing through tariffs to consumers, either partially or entirely. Some companies are also buying more American products to avoid tariffs, benefiting domestic producers. The long-term impact will depend on whether the tariffs are perceived as temporary or permanent. The study also revealed that some companies are using the opportunity to raise prices on goods not directly affected by tariffs. * **ECB Meeting:** The European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates and suggested they were nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycle. Inflation is expected to fall below their target in the coming year, prompting the ECB to become more cautious. Energy prices have been low and the euro has strengthened, which reduces import costs but makes exports less competitive. The market is pricing in only one more ECB cut this year. The euro strengthened on the news, as the interest rate differentials are expected to close as the Fed possibly cuts later on in the year. Finally, the speaker mentioned one additional piece of "random news": Wells Fargo being released from asset cap, it might imply for credit creation and the banking sector in the US.