User Upload Audio - Warren Buffett | Lecture | University Of Florida | 1998
发布时间:2020-11-11 15:45:00
原节目
以下是翻译后的内容:
在这次会议中,沃伦·巴菲特向MBA学生传授投资和生活方面的智慧。他首先强调了诚信的重要性,以及智慧和精力,在取得成功中的作用。他用一个思想实验来说明这一点:如果给你一个机会购买一位同学未来收益的10%,你会选择谁?不一定是智商最高或精力最充沛的,而是具有领导素质、慷慨和诚实的人。反之,你会想“做空”谁?不是智商最低的,而是那些自负、贪婪或不诚实的人。巴菲特强调,这些令人钦佩的品质是可以实现的,而消极的特征可以消除,尤其是在年轻的时候,因为习惯尚未根深蒂固。
在谈到投资策略时,巴菲特摒弃了宏观预测,而是专注于理解企业。他寻找简单、容易理解、具有“护城河”保护其免受竞争的企业。这些护城河可以是低成本(例如,盖可保险)、品牌实力(例如,可口可乐、喜诗糖果)或心智占有率(例如,迪士尼)。他强调诚实能干的管理层以及预测企业十年后所处位置的能力。他强调购买你理解并且即使股市关闭五年也乐于拥有的企业。他强调购买的是企业的股份,而不是股票代码,成功取决于企业蓬勃发展并支付合理的价格这一基本原则。
关于如何确定合理的价格,巴菲特倾向于他非常有信心的企业,为了确保不会赔钱而接受可能较低的回报。他分享了1972年收购喜诗糖果的故事。关键在于其在加州的强大品牌认知度,这使得它可以在不影响销量的情况下提高价格。他还强调了整体的客户体验和产品的重要性。
巴菲特还透露了他们参与长期资本管理公司(LTCM)事件的情况。LTCM尽管拥有令人印象深刻的智力、丰富的经验和大量的个人投资,但由于杠杆融资和为了不重要的事情承担了不必要的风险而倒闭。他强调了避免为了不重要的事情而冒重要事情风险的原则,无论概率如何。他强调了一群高智商人士冒一切风险的LTCM崩溃的疯狂之处。他告诫不要过度依赖数学,以及不要相信历史数据能够准确预测未来的金融事件。
此外,巴菲特提倡个人满足感和对事业的热情。他认为,人们应该追求自己热爱的工作,而不仅仅是为了改善自己的简历。他的建议是寻找那些即使你已经财富自由,也会依然选择从事的工作。
他还谈到了亚洲金融危机及其对可口可乐等公司的影响,他说,虽然短期内可能会受到影响,但不会影响长期前景。可口可乐将继续主导市场,其市场将在未来几年继续增长。
关于错误,巴菲特指出,他最大的错误是遗漏 – 错过了他了解但未采取行动的企业机会。他强调保持在自己的“能力圈”内,并基于独立分析而非提示或外部因素做出投资决策的重要性。他还强调,如果不是专业的投资者,多元化投资的重要性,而对于专业的投资者来说,多元化应该受到限制。
最终,巴菲特强调,一个人的决定需要通过照镜子和分析来做出。
In this session, Warren Buffett addresses MBA students, imparting wisdom on investing and life. He begins by emphasizing the importance of integrity, alongside intelligence and energy, in achieving success. He illustrates this with a thought experiment: if given the chance to buy 10% of a classmate's future earnings, who would they choose? Not necessarily the smartest or most energetic, but the one with leadership qualities, generosity, and honesty. Conversely, whom would they want to "short"? Not the least intelligent, but the one with egotistical, greedy, or dishonest traits. Buffett highlights that these admirable qualities are achievable and that negative traits can be eliminated, especially at a young age, as habits are not yet deeply ingrained.
Moving to investment strategies, Buffett dismisses macro predictions and instead focuses on understanding businesses. He seeks simple, easily understood businesses with "moats" that protect them from competition. These moats could be low cost (Geico), brand strength (Coca-Cola, Sees Candy), or share of mind (Disney). He emphasizes honest and able management and the ability to foresee the business's position a decade from now. He emphasizes buying a business you understand and would be happy to own even if the stock market closed for five years. He underscores the fundamental principle of buying ownership in a business, not a stock ticker, and success relies on the business thriving and paying a fair price.
Regarding determining a fair price, Buffett leans toward businesses he's highly confident in, accepting potentially lower returns for the assurance of not losing money. He shares the story of Sees Candy, acquired in 1972. The key was its strong brand recognition in California, allowing price increases without affecting sales volume. He also emphasizes the overall customer experience that is delivered and the importance of the product.
Buffett also reveals their involvement in the Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) situation. LTCM, despite its impressive intellect, extensive experience, and substantial personal investment, collapsed due to leveraging money and risks they didn't need for something unimportant. He stresses the principle of avoiding risking something important for something unimportant, regardless of the odds. He highlights the madness of the LTCM collapse by a group of individuals with high IQs risking everything. He cautions against over-reliance on mathematics and the belief that historical data accurately predicts future financial events.
Moreover, Buffett advocates for personal contentment and passion in one's career. He believes that someone ought to pursue a job because they love to do it, not just to improve their resume. His advice is to seek jobs that have the traits you would pursue even if you were independently wealthy.
He also touched on the Asian crisis and its effect on companies like Coca-Cola, he said while it may hurt in the short term, it won't affect long-term prospects. Coke will continue to dominate the market and its market will continue to grow over the years.
In regards to mistakes, Buffett notes that his biggest have been mistakes of omission – passing up opportunities in businesses he understood but didn't act on. He emphasizes the importance of staying within one's "circle of competence" and making investment decisions based on independent analysis, not on tips or external factors. He also underscores the importance of diversifying if someone is not a professional investor, while for professional investors, diversification should be limited.
Ultimately, Buffett underscores that one's decision needs to be based by looking in the mirror and analyzing.