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Joseph Wang - Markets Weekly May 31, 2025

发布时间:2025-05-31 16:02:07   原节目
以下是上述内容的中文翻译: 这份日期为5月31日的“市场周报”视频文字稿分析了近期受贸易谈判新闻,尤其是潜在关税影响的市场活动。发言者强调,尽管这是一个缩短的假日交易周,但它充满了围绕贸易新闻的各种事件。本周开始时,传来积极消息:欧盟和美国,具体来说是欧盟的普雷斯顿·万达里翁和“普雷斯顿·特朗普”同意推迟特朗普最初因对贸易进展不满而威胁要征收的50%关税。此次延期至7月9日,为谈判提供了更多时间,市场对此反应热烈,出现上涨。 市场也经历了一波上涨,尽管最终消退,原因是美国贸易法院裁决反对特朗普的互惠关税。然而,发言者强调,这一法律裁决可能不会阻止关税的实施,他认为贸易谈判进展不顺利,总统可能会采取激烈的措施。他认为,法律挑战不太可能成功,因为美国历史上民粹主义总统开创了先例,例如安德鲁·杰克逊和富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福,他们在认为法院裁决阻碍其政治议程和民众意愿时,无视了法院的裁决。 他解释说,国会将关税权力下放给总统,总统可以使用各种工具,如第232条关税(基于对外国贸易行为的研究)或根据《国际紧急经济权力法》(AIPA)宣布国家紧急状态来征收关税。尽管针对互惠关税出现了法律挑战,但发言者不认为它们会破坏特朗普的贸易政策,他认为从历史角度看待这个问题很重要。他表示,在民粹主义时代,法律挑战不会奏效。 发言者将特朗普与过去的民粹主义总统进行了比较,例如安德鲁·杰克逊,他无视最高法院关于美国原住民土地权利的裁决(血泪之路),以及富兰克林·德拉诺·罗斯福,他试图通过增加法官人数来扩充法院(packing the court),从而挑战最高法院,因为最高法院最初不同意他重新分配财富的行动和计划。这些总统,尽管面临法律挑战,但最终凭借强大的公众支持和挑战既定机构的意愿而获胜。发言者认为,特朗普就像这些人物一样,在机构削弱的背景下运作,并享有足够的民众支持来无视法律障碍。 发言者还提到了与中国的贸易谈判现状。他引用财政部长姆努钦承认谈判“有点停滞”作为重要的危险信号,尤其是考虑到政府官员通常呈现出的持续乐观态度。此外,特朗普通过推特表达的不满以及针对中国科技公司并购和学生签证的新规定,都表明紧张局势正在加剧。 发言者随后介绍了“taco贸易”的概念,它代表“特朗普总是临阵退缩”(Trump always chickens out)。这指的是这样一种看法:特朗普经常从他的关税威胁中退缩,分析师们开始接受这种观点,市场预期他会“退缩”。 发言者最后总结说,来自法院的抵制、贸易伙伴的反对以及一种感知的羞辱,可能会迫使特朗普采取果断行动,以表明决心并避免被视为“胆小鬼”。 他认为,最近的新闻头条,以及下周可能的情况一样,表明受贸易相关发展驱动的不确定性和潜在波动性将持续存在。

This "Markets Weekly" video transcript, dated May 31st, analyzes recent market activity heavily influenced by trade talk news, particularly regarding potential tariffs. The speaker highlights that even though it was a shortened holiday trading week, it was packed with excitement revolving around trade news. The week began with positive news as the European Union and the US, specifically Preston Vandalion of the EU and "Preston Trump", agreed to delay imposing a 50% tariff initially threatened by Trump due to trade progress dissatisfaction. This delay extends until July 9th, providing more time for negotiations, and was met with market surges. The markets also experienced a surge, although which eventually faded, following a US trade court ruling against Trump's reciprocal tariffs. However, the speaker emphasizes that this legal ruling will likely not prevent tariffs, asserting that trade talks are not progressing well, and the president might resort to drastic measures. He argues that the legal challenge is unlikely to succeed due to the precedent set by populist presidents in US history, such as Andrew Jackson and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who defied court rulings when they were deemed to be obstructions to their political agendas and popular will. He explains how Congress has delegated power over tariffs to the president, who can employ various tools like Section 232 tariffs (based on studies of foreign trade behavior) or declare a national emergency under AIPA to impose tariffs. Although legal challenges have emerged against reciprocal tariffs, the speaker dismisses their potential to derail Trump's trade policy, arguing that viewing the situation through historical lens is important. He states that legal challenges are not going to work in an era of populism. The speaker draws parallels between Trump and past populist presidents like Andrew Jackson, who defied the Supreme Court regarding Native American land rights (Trail of Tears), and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who challenged the Supreme Court by trying to pack the court with more judges when the Supreme Court did not initially agree with his actions and plans to redistribute wealth. These presidents, despite facing legal challenges, ultimately prevailed because of their strong public support and willingness to challenge established institutions. The speaker argues that Trump, like these figures, is operating within a context of weakened institutions and enjoys enough popular support to disregard legal obstacles. The speaker also addresses the status of trade talks with China. He cites Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's admission that talks are "a bit stalled" as a significant red flag, especially given the consistent positivity usually presented by administration officials. Furthermore, Trump's frustration expressed via Twitter and new regulations targeting Chinese tech mergers and student visas signal deepening tensions. The speaker then introduces the concept of the "taco trade," which stands for "Trump always chickens out". This refers to the perception that Trump often backs down from his tariff threats, a view that analysts are beginning to embrace, with the market anticipating the "backing down". The speaker concludes that the convergence of court resistance, pushback from trade partners, and a perceived humiliation might compel Trump to take decisive action to demonstrate resolve and avoid being seen as a "chicken". He believes that the recent headlines, and that next week will probably be the same, indicating an ongoing period of uncertainty and potential volatility driven by trade-related developments.