以下是 "Markets Weekly" 内容的中文翻译： 本周的 "Markets Weekly" 深入探讨了近期市场的大幅上涨、解放日后的复苏、关键经济数据以及新台币的大幅升值。主持人强调了具有历史意义的一周，标准普尔 500 指数出现了 9 天的连涨，有效地抹去了 4 月份的损失，主持人将 4 月份的损失称为“解放日损失”。 在各种因素的推动下，股市经历了积极的一周。这些因素包括潜在的散户投资者活动、系统性投资者的买入，以及波动性降低导致的对冲基金平仓。在贸易方面也有积极但微小的进展，中国表示愿意与美国政府进行对话。 大型科技公司的财报也发挥了关键作用。微软和 Facebook 获得了积极的市场反应，而亚马逊和苹果的财报则反应平淡。苹果公司的财报电话会议显示，关税使该公司每季度损失约 10 亿美元，尽管考虑到他们的股票回购，这并未对其整体盈利能力产生重大影响。苹果似乎正在通过将 iPhone 制造转移到印度来服务美国市场，以此来适应环境。对苹果商业模式更实质性的威胁是最近的法院裁决，该裁决对苹果应用商店 30% 的交易费用提出质疑，如果开发者绕过应用商店进行支付，这可能会减少收入。 其他资产类别的表现好坏参半。美国国债收益率在很大程度上恢复到解放日前的水平，表明 6 月份美联储降息的可能性降低。然而，美元并未恢复其解放日前的强势，这可能是由于政策转变和对美国经济特殊性的担忧。石油价格一直在下跌，有消息称 OPEC 增加了产量，这可能受到特朗普政府降低油价和对抗通胀的愿望的影响。 现在的焦点正在转向经济数据，以衡量美国潜在的经济衰退。第一季度 GDP 数据显示略微负增长，这是由于企业为了抢在关税生效前大量进口所致。展望未来，分析师建议关注“核心 GDP”，其定义为最终私人销售给私人国内消费者，第一季度显示出更健康的 3% 的增长。 劳动力市场数据呈现出喜忧参半的局面。职位空缺和劳动力流动调查 (JOLTS) 数据显示劳动力市场正在软化，职位空缺与工人数量之比正在下降。非农就业数据超出预期，但也对前几个月的数据进行了向下修正。工资增速放缓表明工资增长并未对通胀产生上行压力。然而，持续申领失业救济金人数显著增加，这表明劳动力市场正在软化，并表明个人在获得新工作方面正面临更大的困难。 讨论中最令人感兴趣的发展是新台币对美元意外升值 3%，发生在一天之内。台湾央行将其归因于外国投资者的巨额资金流入，尽管关于潜在的货币协议或幕后交易的猜测甚嚣尘上。 台湾持续的经常账户盈余应导致其货币升值；然而，由于盈余被重新投资于外币资产，因此新台币长期以来并未升值。寿险公司正在购买外币计价资产，并且由于中央银行提供的稳定性而没有对冲其投资。由于新台币已经升值，这让他们面临潜在的巨大损失。这种情况凸显了不断演变的全球贸易秩序和全球资本流动的转变，这可能会对拥有大量外汇储备的国家产生重大影响。

This week's "Markets Weekly" dives into the recent market surge, post-Liberation Day recovery, key economic data, and the significant appreciation of the Taiwan dollar. The host highlights a historic week where the S&P 500 experienced a 9-day winning streak, effectively erasing the losses incurred during April, which the host refers to as "Liberation Day losses." The equities market experienced a positive week, driven by various factors. These include potential retail investor activity, systemic investor buying, and decreased volatility leading to hedge covering. There were also positive, albeit minor, developments on the trade front with China expressing a willingness to engage in discussions with the US administration. Big Tech earnings also played a crucial role. Microsoft and Facebook received positive market reactions, while Amazon and Apple's reports were met with lukewarm responses. Apple's earnings call revealed that tariffs cost the company around $1 billion per quarter, although this hasn't significantly impacted their overall profitability, given their share buybacks. Apple is seemingly adapting by shifting iPhone manufacturing to India to serve the US market. A more substantial threat to Apple's business model is the recent court ruling challenging their App Store's 30% transaction fee, which could reduce revenue if developers bypass the App Store for payments. Other asset classes showed mixed performance. Treasury yields have largely returned to pre-Liberation Day levels, suggesting a reduced probability of a Fed rate cut in June. The US dollar, however, has not recovered its pre-Liberation Day strength, potentially due to policy shifts and concerns about US economic exceptionalism. Oil prices have been declining, with news of OPEC increasing output, potentially influenced by the Trump administration's desire to lower oil prices and combat inflation. The focus is now shifting to economic data as indicators of a potential US recession. First-quarter GDP data showed slight negative growth, which was due to high import levels driven by companies front-running tariffs. Looking ahead, analysts suggest focusing on "core GDP," defined as final private sales to private domestic consumers, which showed a healthier 3% growth in the first quarter. Labor market data presents a mixed picture. JOLTS data indicates a softening labor market, with the ratio of job openings to workers declining. Non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, but there were also downward revisions to previous months. Wage deceleration suggests that wage growth isn't adding upward pressure on inflation. However, there has been a noticeable increase in continuing unemployment claims, signaling a softening labor market and suggesting that individuals are experiencing greater difficulty in securing new employment. The most intriguing development discussed is the unexpected 3% appreciation of the Taiwan dollar against the US dollar in a single day. Taiwan's central bank attributed this to massive inflows from foreign investors, although speculations abound regarding potential currency accord or back room deal. Taiwan's persistent current account surplus should lead to appreciation in its currency; however, the Taiwan dollar has not appreciated in the long-term due to the surplus being reinvested in foreign currency assets. Life insurers are purchasing foreign dollar-denominated assets and not hedging their investments due to the stability provided by the central bank. This has left them open to potentially large losses as the Taiwan dollar has appreciated. This situation highlights the evolving global trade order and the shifting dynamics of global capital flows, which could significantly impact countries with large foreign currency reserves.