以下是内容的中文翻译： 本周的市场分析突出了货币和财政政策之间复杂的相互作用，这主要是由预期或实际的变化所驱动的。最初，市场因担心杰罗姆·鲍威尔可能被解雇而出现下跌，但当特朗普总统收回成命，声明他“无意”解雇美联储主席时，市场跌势得以逆转。与此同时，财政部长斯科特·贝森特和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克的保证，缓解了人们对美国货币政策独立性的直接担忧，尽管明年可能会任命新的美联储主席，因此仍然存在不确定性。 沃勒理事的讲话对关税的影响引入了一个细致的视角。尽管沃勒承认关税有可能提高通胀并降低增长，但他采取了鸽派立场，表示愿意“忽略”关税的价格影响。他认为，关税导致的一次性价格上涨是短暂事件，不会引发美联储的反应。然而，他强调，如果关税导致裁员，从而导致劳动力市场大幅下滑，他将主张降息。目前的失业数据显示劳动力市场并未恶化，尽管有零星裁员的证据，这导致市场认为5月份降息的可能性很小，但6月份降息的可能性更大。 关于贸易政策，市场最初对“解放日”期间对中国和世界其他地区征收的大量关税反应消极。 特朗普随后暂停对世界其他地区征收关税90天，从而进入了贸易谈判期。虽然贸易协议通常需要数月或数年才能最终确定，但特朗普仍然表示乐观。 贝森特部长暗示可能会降低对中国的关税，从不可持续的高水平（约145%）降至更容易管理的50%。这一前景提振了市场信心，但分析师强调，即使是50%也远高于关税实施前的水平。 贝森特阐述了他对与中国达成理想贸易协议的愿景，设想一种“美丽的再平衡”，即中国从出口导向型制造业增长转向国内经济，解决其贸易顺差问题。与此同时，美国将通过减少从国外购买和增加国内生产来减少其贸易逆差。 尽管有这些愿景，但与中国的贸易谈判进展似乎不顺利，特朗普政府和中国大使馆就正在进行的会谈给出了相互矛盾的报告。 分析师强调了关税正在显现的实际影响。由于高关税，来自中国的集装箱货运量正在显著下降。预计这种下降将在未来几周或几个月内转化为美国商店中中国商品供应量的明显减少，这可能会影响消费者的选择。尽管对其他国家征收的10%关税似乎是可以承受的，但有传闻表明，成本由供应商、进口商和消费者分摊。 彭博首席经济学家 Anna Wong 认为，大部分关税由美国承担，进口商通过降低利润率而不是将成本转嫁给消费者来吸收成本。这与 2018 年至 2019 年特朗普首次发动贸易战期间的情况类似，当时分销商的利润率下降。 鉴于近期企业利润率飙升，公司可能有一些灵活性来吸收这些成本。 尽管旅游和航空公司的价格受到可自由支配支出的影响，但总的来说，目前的影响似乎有限。 分析师总结说，虽然市场出现强劲反弹，这主要是受到对政策变化的预期和一些均值回归的推动，但根本问题仍然没有解决。 总的来说，长期影响仍然不确定。

This week's market analysis highlights a complex interplay of monetary and fiscal policies, primarily driven by anticipated or actual changes. The initial market downturn, triggered by concerns surrounding Jerome Powell's potential dismissal, was reversed when President Trump backtracked, stating he had "no intention" of firing the Fed Chair. This, alongside reassurances from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, calmed immediate fears about U.S. monetary policy independence, although uncertainties remain for next year when a new Fed chair could be appointed. Governor Waller's speech introduced a nuanced perspective on the impact of tariffs. While acknowledging the potential for tariffs to raise inflation and lower growth, Waller adopted a dovish stance, stating his willingness to "look through" the price effects of tariffs. He argued that a one-time increase in prices due to tariffs is a transitory event and wouldn't warrant a Fed reaction. However, he emphasized that a significant drop in the labor market, triggered by tariffs leading to layoffs, would prompt him to advocate for rate cuts. Current unemployment data doesn't indicate a deterioration in the labor market, despite anecdotal evidence of layoffs, leading the market to price in only a small chance of a rate cut in May but a more notable potential for one in June. Regarding trade policy, the market initially reacted negatively to substantial tariffs imposed on China and the rest of the world during "Liberation Day." Trump's subsequent 90-day pause on tariffs for the rest of the world led to a period of trade negotiations. While trade deals typically take months or years to finalize, Trump continues to express optimism. Secretary Bessent hinted at potential reductions in tariffs on China, moving from unsustainably high levels (around 145%) to a more manageable 50%. This prospect boosted market confidence, but the analyst emphasized that even 50% is still significantly higher than pre-tariff levels. Bessent articulated his vision for an ideal trade deal with China, envisioning a "beautiful rebalancing" where China shifts away from export-led manufacturing growth towards a domestic economy, addressing its trade surplus. Simultaneously, the US would reduce its trade deficit by buying less from abroad and producing more at home. Despite these aspirations, trade negotiations with China appear to be progressing poorly, with conflicting reports from the Trump administration and the Chinese embassy regarding ongoing talks. The analyst highlighted the emerging real-world impacts of tariffs. Container volume shipments from China are declining significantly due to the high tariffs. This decline is expected to translate into a noticeable reduction in the availability of Chinese goods in US stores in the coming weeks or months, potentially affecting consumer choices. While the 10% tariffs on other countries appear manageable, anecdotes suggest that the cost is shared between suppliers, importers, and consumers. Bloomberg's chief economist, Anna Wong, suggests that the bulk of the tariffs are being borne on the US side, with importers absorbing the cost by lowering margins rather than passing it on to consumers. This echoes the situation during the initial Trump trade war in 2018-2019, where distributors experienced lower margins. Given the recent surge in corporate margins, companies may have some flexibility to absorb these costs. While prices for travel and airlines are being impacted by discretionary spending, overall, the impact appears to be limited at this point. The analyst concludes that while there's been a strong rally in the market, driven by anticipation of policy changes and some mean reversion, the fundamental problems remain unsolved. Overall, the long term impacts are still uncertain.