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User Upload Audio - Bessent on Trade Talks, Powell Future, Argentina, Dollar

发布时间:2025-04-14 21:19:52   原节目
以下是上述内容的中文翻译: 这次对一位特朗普政府官员(很可能是财政部长,但 transcript 中未指明姓名)的采访主要集中在贸易政策、阿根廷的经济状况以及在面对来自中国的挑战时所采取的总体经济策略。 关于阿根廷,这位官员强调了对米莱总统的经济改革的坚定支持,将其描述为将该国从“悬崖边”拉回的“历史性”努力。这种支持体现在国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 最近承诺的 200 亿美元和世界银行的 120 亿美元中。这位官员的访问旨在表明这种支持,尤其是在阿根廷进行财政、货币和汇率调整之际。与阿根廷的贸易谈判也在议程上,目标是降低现有的 10% 关税。这位官员表示,所有问题都在讨论范围内,包括恐怖主义非关税贸易壁垒、货币操纵和劳工补贴。 随后,采访过渡到更广泛的拉丁美洲政策及其与中国的联系。这位官员暗示,从某种意义上说,拉丁美洲政策也是一项中国政策,旨在防止中国重蹈在非洲覆辙。令人担忧的是,中国从事了“伪装成援助的掠夺性交易”,让非洲国家背负了过度的债务,剥削了矿产资源,并通过“拖曳安排”获得了长期控制权,而所有这些都缺乏透明度。这位官员表示希望避免在拉丁美洲出现类似情况。虽然承认中国与阿根廷达成了 180 亿美元的货币互换协议,但这位官员表示,美国不考虑向阿根廷提供直接信贷额度,但希望米莱的政策能够带来足够的外国外汇流入,最终偿还中国的债务。 关于更广泛的贸易谈判,这位官员承认他之前曾说过他没有构建关税税率。他坚持认为他一直参与关税政策,并且在总统宣布暂停 90 天后,他现在深入参与贸易谈判。他强调了一个结构化和有序流程的重要性,该流程涉及包括越南、日本和韩国在内的多个贸易伙伴,总统最终将发挥关键作用。这位官员提到了即将与日本谈判团队和西班牙经济部长的会晤。采访者追问谈判的进度。这位官员表示,盟友可以通过快速达成协议获得“先发优势”,并且可能在 90 天期限内原则上达成多项协议。他们强调,关税本身可能只是谈判中比较容易的部分,而非关税贸易壁垒带来了更复杂的挑战。 这位官员反驳了总统对关税采取“最大化策略”的说法,并强调了不泄露谈判秘密的重要性。关于更广泛的贸易战略,这位官员认为,美国正在寻求解决中国的商业模式,该模式涉及因美国关税而将过剩产量倾销到其他市场。这位官员预计,中国将继续向欧洲、加拿大和 G7 倾销更高附加值的产品,而将低附加值的产品销往全球南方。 采访探讨了美中关系以及它是否会脱钩,这位官员暗示仍然有可能达成协议。这位官员指出,虽然通常情况下,主要的经济竞争对手是军事盟友,但中国并非如此。这创造了一种特殊的模式。 采访还涉及了美国国债市场最近的波动。这位官员驳斥了外国实体“抛售”美国资产的担忧,并引用最近的即时数据表明外国所有权有所增加。他们将市场波动归因于过度杠杆和“真实资金抛售”,将其描述为暂时的“杠杆冲击”。这位官员重申了“强势美元政策”,并淡化了美元正在失去其避险地位的说法。 最后,这位官员提供了有关政府更广泛的经济战略的见解,强调虽然关税目前是焦点,但税收政策和放松管制也是“三条腿的凳子”的重要组成部分。这位官员对实现不仅仅是简单地延长现有政策表示乐观。他强调国会中“非凡的共和党团结”,并敦促观众关注政策的“整个画面”。

This interview with a Trump administration official (likely the Treasury Secretary, but unnamed in the transcript) focuses on trade policy, the economic situation in Argentina, and overall economic strategy in the face of perceived challenges from China. Regarding Argentina, the official emphasizes strong support for President Milei's economic reforms, characterizing them as a "historic" effort to pull the country back "from the precipice." This support is evidenced by a recent $20 billion commitment from the IMF and $12 billion from the World Bank. The official's visit aims to signal this support, particularly as Argentina undertakes fiscal, monetary, and currency adjustments. Trade negotiations with Argentina are also on the agenda, with the goal of reducing the existing 10% tariff. The official states that all issues are on the table, including terrorist non-tariff trade barriers, currency manipulation, and labor subsidization. The interview then transitions to broader Latin America policy and its connection to China. The official suggests that Latin America policy is, in a sense, also a China policy, aiming to prevent China from repeating what it has done in Africa. The concern is that China has engaged in "rapacious deals marked as aid" that have saddled African countries with excessive debt, exploited mineral rights, and secured long-term control through "towing arrangements," all with little to no transparency. The official expresses a desire to avoid a similar scenario in Latin America. While acknowledging China's $18 billion credit swap with Argentina, the official says the US is not considering providing a direct credit line to Argentina but hopes that Milei's policies will lead to enough foreign exchange inflows to eventually pay off China. On trade negotiations more broadly, the official acknowledges that he previously stated he was not constructing tariff rates. He insists that he was always part of the tariff policy and is now deeply involved in trade negotiations following a 90-day pause declared by the President. He emphasizes the importance of a structured and orderly process, involving multiple trading partners, including Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea, with the President ultimately playing a key role. The official mentions upcoming meetings with the Japanese negotiating team and the Spanish economy minister. The interviewer probes about the pace of negotiations. The official suggests that allies may gain a "first-mover advantage" by making deals quickly and that multiple agreements could be reached in principle within the 90-day timeframe. They highlight that the tariffs themselves may be the easier part of the negotiations, with non-tariff trade barriers presenting more complex challenges. The official pushes back against the idea that the President has taken a "maximalist approach" to tariffs and emphasizes the importance of not giving away negotiating secrets. Regarding broader trade strategy, the official argues that the US is seeking to address China's business model, which involves dumping excess production in other markets due to US tariffs. The official expects that China will continue to dump higher value-added goods in Europe, Canada, and the G7, while lower-value goods go to the global south. The interview explores the US-China relationship and whether it could decouple, the official suggests that a deal is still possible. The official noted that while normally, leading economic competitors are military allies, China is not. This creates a special kind of formula. The interview also touches on the US Treasury market's recent volatility. The official dismisses concerns about a "dumping" of US assets by foreign entities, citing recent tick data that shows an increase in foreign ownership. They attribute the market volatility to excessive leverage and "real money selling," characterizing it as a temporary "bar shock." The official reiterates a "strong dollar policy" and downplays the idea that the US dollar is losing its safe-haven status. Finally, the official provides insight into the administration's broader economic strategy, emphasizing that while tariffs are currently in focus, tax policy and deregulation are also important components of a "three-legged stool." The official expresses optimism about achieving more than a simple extension of current policies. He highlights "remarkable Republican unity" in Congress, and urges audiences to look at the "entire picture" of policy.