以下是查理·芒格关于人类误判的24个标准原因的讲座总结： 查理·芒格首先解释了他对人类误判的毕生着迷。由于他的法学院教育缺乏实际指导，他根据随意的阅读和个人经验，开发了自己的心理学体系。 后来他发现了罗伯特·西奥迪尼的《影响力》，填补了其中的空白。 芒格认为经济学必须承认心理学的有效性，反之亦然。 他介绍了他列出的24个“人类误判的标准原因”，强调它们的影响常常被低估。 1. **对强化和激励的力量认识不足：** 芒格强调了激励的力量，讲述了联邦快递通过转变为基于轮班的支付系统来解决夜班问题，以及施乐公司因销售佣金结构无意中推广了劣质机器等轶事。他还将其与B.F.斯金纳的工作联系起来，但告诫人们不要患上“手持锤子的人综合症”。 2. **简单的心理否认：** 人们扭曲现实以避免痛苦的真相，就像父母不愿相信子女的罪行或死亡一样。 3. **由激励引发的偏见：** 医生进行不必要的手术，经纪人提供有偏见的销售演示，以及“成本加成本百分比”合同导致滥用。 芒格赞扬了收银机等发明，因为它减轻了不诚实行为。 4. **一致性和承诺倾向：** 人类的大脑抵制改变结论，特别是那些公开声明或“得来不易”的结论。 芒格认为，教育机构应避免营造学生感到有压力表达过早观点的氛围。 5. **来自巴甫洛夫式联想的偏见：** 芒格强调巴甫洛夫式联想如何影响日常生活，并以广告为例。 6. **波斯信使综合症：** 人们避免向权威人物传递坏消息，导致不切实际的认知和糟糕的决策。 7. **来自斯金纳式联想的偏见：** 操作性条件反射会产生迷信行为，即使在人类身上也是如此。 他将此与允许虚假利润报告的会计惯例联系起来，从而导致欺诈行为。 8. **互惠倾向：** 芒格讨论了西奥迪尼的实验，该实验表明“登门槛”技术如何操纵人们的潜意识。 他还提到了津巴多实验。 9. **来自社会认同过度影响的偏见：** 个人受到他人行为的影响，尤其是在不确定或压力大的情况下。 芒格批评了有效市场理论，因为它未能解释非理性的市场浪潮。 10. **来自对比引起的扭曲的偏见：** 感觉、知觉和认知受到对比的影响，导致房地产经纪人和其他人的操纵。 11. **来自权威过度影响的偏见：** 他用米尔格拉姆实验作为这种倾向的证明，以及因飞行员的权威而导致的飞机坠毁实验。 12. **来自剥夺-过度反应综合症的偏见：** 人们对损失或威胁的损失反应过度，就像新可乐惨败一样。 13. **来自嫉妒/羡慕的偏见：** 嫉妒/羡慕是一种强大的、潜意识的力量，但在许多心理学课程中都没有提及。 14. **来自化学依赖的偏见：** 如果有任何需要，化学依赖总是会导致道德崩溃。 15. **来自病态赌博冲动的偏见：** 芒格解释了赌博机采用的可变强化率和其他心理技巧如何产生强烈的成瘾性。 16. **来自喜欢/爱的扭曲的偏见：** 人们更容易被他们喜欢的人误导。 17. **来自人类大脑非数学性质的偏见：** 大脑依赖于粗略的启发式方法，而不是简单的概率数学。 芒格建议像桥牌玩家那样思考，比如Zach Ozer。 18. **来自过于生动的证据过度影响的偏见：** 生动的证据被错误地加权，导致糟糕的判断。 芒格讲述了一个个人故事，在这个故事中，他的偏见使他损失了至少3000万美元。 19. **信息未在大脑中排列造成的精神混乱：** 芒格谈到了在理论结构上组织信息的重要性，回答“为什么”。 20. **压力引起的精神变化：** 压力会逆转条件性格。 芒格还使用巴甫洛夫的实验作为证据。 21. **其他常见的精神疾病和衰退：** 因不使用而衰退。 22. **“说点什么综合症”造成的精神和组织混乱：** 建立一个组织，使噪音不影响决策。 23. **感觉、记忆、认知和知识的正常限制。** 24. **公开竞价：** 它绝对是为了操纵人们做出愚蠢的行为而设计的。 芒格强调了结合几种倾向的倍增效应，产生了“lollapalooza效应”，这在特百惠派对、匿名戒酒互助会和麦克唐纳-道格拉斯客机疏散灾难中可见一斑。他还讨论了公开竞价的危险以及典型美国董事会的机能障碍。 他承认这些倾向是人类固有的，但认为理解它们对于做出更明智的决策至关重要。他提供了建设性地使用这些知识的例子，例如沟通实践、飞行员培训、匿名戒酒互助会、医学院培训和美国宪法。 芒格最后强调了由这些倾向的人类智慧引起的特殊问题，并敦促教育系统做更多的工作来促进心理意识，从而培养更明智和更理性的人。

Here's a summarization of Charlie Munger's lecture on the 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment: Charlie Munger begins by explaining his lifelong fascination with human misjudgment. Frustrated by the lack of practical guidance in his law school education, he developed his own psychology system based on casual reading and personal experience. He then discovered Robert Cialdini's "Influence," which filled in the gaps. Munger believes economics must recognize the validity of psychology and vice versa. He introduces his list of 24 "standard causes of human misjudgment," emphasizing that their impact is often underestimated. 1. **Under Recognition of the Power of Reinforcement and Incentives:** Munger underscores the power of incentives, relating anecdotes like Federal Express solving their night shift problem by switching to a shift-based payment system and Xerox unintentionally pushing an inferior machine due to sales commission structures. He also connects it to B.F. Skinner's work, albeit with a caution against "Man with a Hammer Syndrome." 2. **Simple Psychological Denial:** People distort reality to avoid painful truths, as seen in parents refusing to believe in their children's guilt or death. 3. **Incentive-Caused Bias:** Doctors perform unnecessary surgeries, brokers provide biased sales presentations, and "cost-plus percentage of cost" contracts lead to abuse. Munger praises inventions like the cash register for mitigating dishonesty. 4. **Consistency and Commitment Tendency:** The human mind resists changing conclusions, especially those publicly declared or "hard-won." Munger argues that educational institutions should avoid creating climates where students feel pressured to voice premature opinions. 5. **Bias from Pavlovian Association:** Munger stresses how Pavlovian association impacts daily life, citing advertising as a prime example. 6. **Persian Messenger Syndrome:** People avoid delivering bad news to authority figures, leading to unrealistic perceptions and poor decisions. 7. **Bias from Skinnerian Association:** Operant conditioning creates superstitious behaviors, even in humans. He relates this to accounting practices that allow false profit reporting, leading to fraudulent behavior. 8. **Reciprocation Tendency:** Munger discusses Cialdini's experiments demonstrating how the "door-in-the-face" technique manipulates people's subconscious minds. He also touches on the Zimbardo experiment. 9. **Bias from Over-Influence by Social Proof:** Individuals are swayed by the actions of others, especially in uncertain or stressful situations. Munger criticizes the efficient market theory and its failure to account for irrational market waves. 10. **Bias from Contrast-Caused Distortion:** Sensation, perception, and cognition are influenced by contrast, leading to manipulation by real estate brokers and others. 11. **Bias from Over-Influence by Authority:** He uses the Milgram experiment as a demonstration of this tendency, along with the plane crashing experiment due to the authority of the pilot. 12. **Bias from Deprival-Superreaction Syndrome:** People overreact to losses or threatened losses, as seen in the New Coke fiasco. 13. **Bias from Envy/Jealousy:** Envy/jealousy is a powerful, subconscious force, but it is not mentioned in many psychology courses. 14. **Bias from Chemical Dependency:** Chemical dependency always causes moral breakdown if there's any need. 15. **Bias from Misgambling Compulsion:** Munger explains how variable reinforcement rates and other psychological tricks employed by gambling machines create strong addictions. 16. **Bias from Liking/Loving Distortion:** People are more easily misled by those they like. 17. **Bias from the Non-Mathematical Nature of the Human Brain:** The brain relies on crude heuristics instead of simple probability mathematics. Munger recommends thinking like a bridge player, like Zach Ozer. 18. **Bias from Over-Influence by Extra-Vivid Evidence:** Vivid evidence is misweighted, leading to poor judgment. Munger relates a personal story where his bias cost him at least $30 million. 19. **Mental Confusion Caused by Information Not Arrayed in Mind:** Munger talks about the importance of organizing information on theory structures, answering "why". 20. **Stress-Induced Mental Changes:** Stress can reverse conditioned personalities. Munger also uses Pavlov's experiments as evidence. 21. **Other Common Mental Illnesses and Declines:** A decline with disuse. 22. **Mental and Organizational Confusion from "Say-Something Syndrome":** Setting up an organization so that the noise does not affect decision making. 23. **Normal Limitations of Sensation, Memory, Cognition and Knowledge.** 24. **The Open-Out Cry Auction:** It is absolutely designed to manipulate people into idiotic behavior. Munger emphasizes the multiplicative effect of combining several tendencies, creating "lollapalooza effects," as seen in Tupperware parties, AA, and the McDonald Douglas airliner evacuation disaster. He also discusses the dangers of open-outcry auctions and the dysfunction of typical American boards of directors. He acknowledges that these tendencies are inherent to human nature but believes understanding them is crucial for wiser decision-making. He offers examples of constructive uses of this knowledge, such as communication practices, pilot training, Alcoholics Anonymous, medical school training, and the US Constitution. Munger concludes by highlighting the special problems stemming from the human wisdom of these tendencies, and urges the educational system to do more to promote psychological awareness, leading to wiser and more rational individuals.