All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg - Scott Bessent | All-In in DC!
发布时间:2025-03-19 03:34:00
原节目
以下是将原文翻译成中文:
这是一段对话访谈,由两人采访了第79任财政部长斯科特·贝森特,拍摄地点在白宫前。访谈的核心内容是美国当前的经济状况、国家债务、赤字以及政府“让美国再次伟大”的计划。
贝森特首先回忆了他早期对金融的兴趣,这源于他父亲房地产开发事业的兴衰,这促使他选择了风险管理。他将自己早期投资方面的知识归功于吉姆·罗杰斯,乔治·索罗斯的第一位合伙人。后来,他为索罗斯基金管理公司的斯坦·德鲁肯米勒工作。他描述了自己作为宏观投资者的经验,强调需要理解央行的行动和全球资本流动。
讨论转移到1992年英国银行危机,当时贝森特、德鲁肯米勒和索罗斯对英镑进行了押注。贝森特解释了他如何认识到英国汇率机制的不可持续性,因为它暴露于房地产繁荣的风险之中,斯坦·德鲁肯米勒看到了不对称的押注机会,乔治·索罗斯则负责风险管理。
贝森特随后谈到了他对拜登政府财政政策的担忧。他认为,在经济复苏时期过度刺激支出和玩世不恭的移民政策,加上压低工资。贝森特认为,这些政策使那些拥有资产的人受益,而损害了中产阶级和收入最低的50%的人,因为对于那些没有资产的人来说,购买力下降了。
贝森特将“美国梦”定义为拥有住房、财务保障以及有能力养家糊口。他感叹现在孩子比父母挣得多的机会正在减少。他指出,稀缺性,尤其是在住房和教育方面,是导致焦虑和绝望的原因。
他概述了一个解决国家债务的三管齐下的方法,重点是“凳子的三条腿”的概念:控制支出削减、金融放松管制以及重新调整国际贸易体系。他回忆起特朗普总统对如何在不引发经济衰退的情况下减少债务和赤字的担忧。他主张恢复到GDP的3-3.5%的长期平均赤字水平。贝森特强调,美国面临的是支出问题,而不是收入问题。
谈话转向累积的国家债务和不断上升的利息支出,这给国会带来了挑战。他解释说,通过控制支出削减和放松管制,可以将增长率提高到3%以上。贝森特强调,减税、放松管制、可预测的税收和廉价能源对于将制造业工作岗位带回美国和重振中产阶级至关重要。
他批评美国国会预算办公室(CBO)的评分是可以被操纵的,并强调减税必须与支出削减和放松管制相结合,才能加速经济增长。他有兴趣解除他所说的“金融紧身衣”,让私营部门承担政府的工作,从而实现私营部门的重新杠杆化和政府裁减冗余人员。
他提到重新审视银行法规和资本要求,特别是针对社区银行。贝森特支持美联储在货币政策方面的自主权。他担心,超越其核心职能,例如气候和多元、公平和包容 (DEI) 倡议,可能会威胁到其独立性。
贝森特支持维持这一政策,因为他质疑政府支出是否得到控制。市场尚未形成确定的信念,这是需要关注的事情。当能够量化这一点时,它将得到应有的重视。话题转向政府的财务问题。他相信金融稳定和放松管制。
贝森特认为政府正在使用政府的数据来证明其行为的合理性。他信任GDP数据和非农就业数据。他还认为,尊重美国人民的感受非常重要。有人指出,美国人觉得自己需要打两份工,而廉价商品并不是经济政策。
他讨论了可能取消补充杠杆率,这将释放银行购买国债的能力,从而可能降低收益率。他承认以短期利率发行货币是一个错误,这造成了再融资的挑战。他提到了潜在的浪费、欺诈和滥用,并承认需要量化这些问题。
贝森特断言,特朗普总统正在带领共和党,而削减这些承包商的成本是政府的首要任务。他透露了一个令人难以置信的统计数据,即一家承包商98%的收入都来自一家报纸。他声称,这是因为风险没有得到管理。相反,人们认为他们是根深蒂固的。
他认为福利计划是潜在的削减目标。提高政府效率的目标是改善它,而不是消灭或消除它。最终,联邦政府的节省将来自削减承包商成本和消除浪费。
讨论转向社会保障,以及其目前拥有2.7万亿美元国债但没有交易选择权的现状。本届政府试图调动他们的资产,而不仅仅是债务。通过调动,他们试图重新评估黄金的价值。
贝森特提到在一次加密货币委员会会议上,特朗普总统突然宣布要发表一些讲话。根据这些讲话,贝森特声称我们将重新评估资产负债表的资产方面。
还讨论了主权财富基金和最佳实践。问题转向能源,特别是私营部门并不总是能看到利润。核能成为焦点,并承认必须修复供应链和监管。当它变得具有投资价值时,我们就知道问题已经解决。在椭圆形办公室里,当一项行动将导致裁员时,特朗普总统会要求尝试解决它,并且特朗普总统在这方面有无可挑剔的判断力。
最后,贝森特透露了他在任期间最令人惊讶的经历:国家安全方面。他描述了将墨西哥卡特尔指定为外国恐怖组织并破坏金融生态系统。他分享了一个将家人带到椭圆形办公室的故事,特朗普总统以其渊博的知识和对细节的关注给他们留下了深刻的印象。贝森特将特朗普总统视为美国的市长,他深深关心着他的所有选民,无论是高调的还是普通公民。
This is a dialogue interview by two people interviewing Scott Bessent, the 79th Secretary of the Treasury, filmed in front of the White House. The interview centers on the current state of the US economy, the national debt, deficit, and the administration's plan to "make America great again."
Bessent begins by recounting his early interest in finance, sparked by his father's boom-and-bust real estate development career, leading him to risk management. He credits Jim Rogers, George Soros's first partner, for his early education in investment. He later worked for Stan Druckenmiller at Soros Fund Management. He describes his experience as a macro investor, emphasizing the need to understand central bank actions and global capital flows.
The discussion shifts to the 1992 Bank of England crisis, where Bessent, Druckenmiller, and Soros bet against the British pound. Bessent explains how he recognized the unsustainability of the UK's exchange rate mechanism, due to its exposure to housing boom, with Stan Druckenmiller seeing the asymmetric bet opportunity and George Soros managing the risk.
Bessent then addresses his concerns with the Biden administration's fiscal policies. He believes that excessive stimulus spending during a period of economic recovery and cynical immigration policies, combined with suppressing wages. Bessent contends that these policies benefited those with assets while hurting the middle class and bottom 50% of wage earners, as purchasing power declined for those without assets.
Bessent defines the American Dream as homeownership, financial security, and the ability to support a family. He laments that the opportunity for children to make more than their parents is diminishing. He points to scarcity, particularly in housing and education, as contributing to anxiety and hopelessness.
He outlines a three-pronged approach to addressing the national debt, focusing on the concept of the "three legs on the stool": controlled spending cuts, financial deregulation, and reordering the international trading system. He recounts President Trump's concern about reducing debt and deficits without causing a recession. He advocates for returning to a long-term average of 3-3.5% deficit to GDP. Bessent stresses that the US has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
The conversation shifts to the accumulated national debt and the rising interest payments, creating challenges with Congress. He explains that controlled cuts with deregulation can move growth to 3% and above. Bessent emphasizes the importance of tax cuts, deregulation, predictable taxes, and cheap energy to bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and reinvigorate the middle class.
He criticizes CBO scoring as gameable, emphasizing that tax cuts must be paired with spending cuts and deregulation to accelerate economic growth. He is interested in undoing what he calls a “financial corset” to allow private sector to take government’s labor, with re-leveraging for private sectors and shedding excess labor for the government.
He mentions reexamining bank regulations and capital requirements, particularly for community banks. Bessent supports the Federal Reserve's autonomy in monetary policy. He expresses concern that expanding beyond its core functions, such as climate and DEI initiatives, could threaten its independence.
Bessent supports maintaining this policy for his question of seeing results from government spending is under control. Markets don’t have sure beliefs yet, as that is something to look at. When quantifying how this is quantified, it will get proper credit. The topic turns towards the administration's financial issues. He believes in financial stability and deregulation.
Bessent sees the government using the government’s data in order to justify actions. As well as trusting GDP number and non-farm payroll. Also, respect for what the American people are feeling is very important. A point is made about how Americans feel they have to work two jobs, and cheap goods is not economic policy.
He discusses a possible elimination of the supplementary leverage ratio, which would free up banks to buy Treasury bills, potentially lowering yields. He acknowledges the mistake of issuing money on the short end of the curve, creating refinancing challenges. He touches upon potential waste, fraud, and abuse and acknowledges that it has to be quantified.
Bessent asserts that President Trump is shepherding the Republican Party and the cost savings on these contractors is a high priority for the administration. He reveals an incredible statistic about how this one contracting firm gets 98% of their revenue from that one newspaper. He claims that this is because, the risk was not managed. But rather, it was believed they were entrenched.
He sees entitlements as a potential target for cuts. The goal for government efficiency is to better it, not extinction or elimination. When all is said and done, federal savings will come from cutting contractor costs and eliminating waste.
The discussion moves to Social Security, and its current standing of having $2.7 trillion of treasury bonds, but no trading options. This administration seeks to mobilize their assets, not just debt. By mobilizing, they seek to revalue the gold.
Bessent mentions a surprise announcement during a crypto council meeting in which President Trump said to make a few remarks. From those marks, Bessent claimed that we will have the asset side of the balance sheet revalued.
There is also discussion of sovereign wealth funds and best practices. The question shifts towards energy, particularly towards private sector not always seeing a profit. Nuclear becomes a focus point, with the acknowledgment that supply chains must be fixed as well as the regulatory. When that becomes investable, we know the problem is fixed. In the Oval office, when an action is going to cause layoffs, President Trump asks to try and fix it, and President Trump has impeccable judgment in that.
Finally, Bessent reveals his most surprising experience in his role: the national security aspect. He describes designating Mexican cartels as foreign terrorist organizations and disrupting the financial ecosystem. He shares an anecdote about taking his family to the Oval Office, where President Trump impressed them with his knowledge and attention to detail. Bessent sees President Trump as the mayor of America, caring deeply about all of his constituents, both high-profile and ordinary citizens.