好的，这是上述 "Markets Weekly" 记录稿的中文总结，重点关注其中关键点和论点：

概述：

这期 "Markets Weekly" 节目，录制于3月15日，涵盖了三个主要话题：近期市场价格走势、关键经济数据（尤其是通货膨胀）以及贸易战的最新进展。 主讲人首先回顾了他在2023年12月对市场的展望，强调了他对标普500指数、黄金价格和10年期国债收益率预测的准确性。

价格走势：

过去一周股市波动剧烈，涨跌幅度很大，但最终周与周之间的价格变化幅度很小。 主讲人指出，周五出现了积极的上涨，标普500指数上涨了2%。他认为市场正在找到支撑并趋于稳定，但方向在很大程度上取决于贸易战的消息。虽然预测短期内可能出现反弹，但波动性的降低表明市场恐慌情绪有所减少。

关于10年期国债收益率，它先跌至4.2%，然后反弹至4.3%。 主讲人重申了他的观点，即市场最初低估了美联储降息的可能性，认为4-6次降息比之前预计的一次更现实。现在，市场定价约为3次降息，鉴于地缘政治风险、关税担忧和疲软的经济数据，他认为这更为合理。

黄金价格飙升至3000美元，主讲人不确定具体催化剂是什么，但认为可能的驱动因素包括货币政策担忧、地缘政治不确定性和潜在的与关税相关的需求。他还提到各国央行可能会进行多元化配置，因此他建议密切关注黄金。

经济数据：

讨论转向了最近的CPI和PPI数据，重点是通货膨胀。 主讲人指出，1月份火热的CPI数据可能是一种季节性影响，2月份较冷的CPI数据（环比增长0.2%）支持了这一观点。 PPI也低于预期。 然而，进入美联储首选PCE指标的组成部分并不那么令人鼓舞，克利夫兰联储的预测表明核心PCE同比增幅为2.6%，略高于美联储的目标，表明通胀进展停滞。

通胀预期被强调为“相当疯狂”，基于政治立场的差异很大（民主党人预计通胀高于共和党人）。 虽然美联储关注的是长期通胀预期，而长期预期仍然相对稳定，但主讲人承认短期预期反映了公众的恐慌情绪。

消费者调查显示，人们对就业市场的悲观情绪日益加剧，尤其是在高收入、白领工人中，这可能是因为大型科技公司裁员和公共部门裁员。 蓝领工人则持更为乐观的看法。 虽然失业救济金申请人数和NMP数据尚未反映出明显的就业岗位减少，但主讲人认为这可能会在未来几个月内出现。

贸易战：

最后一刻达成的协议避免了政府停摆，消除了潜在的风险，并允许量化紧缩持续更长时间。

特朗普总统以国家安全为由，对钢铁和铝进口征收25%的关税。 主讲人指出，反对的声音有限，甚至包括旨在重新获得铁锈地带制造业工人支持的民主党人。 美国汽车工人联合会支持关税。 加拿大受到的影响最大，而美国钢铁和铝业公司则受益。

作为回应，欧盟对美国和加拿大实施了报复性关税。 澳大利亚和巴西选择了谈判而不是报复，类似于墨西哥总统克劳迪娅·辛鲍姆的做法，这种做法已经取得了成功。

主讲人指出，加拿大升级贸易战的做法是一种政治举动。 随着选举临近，尽管损害了加拿大经济，但自由党的政治前景有所改善，马克·卡尼暗示将取消从美国购买F-35的计划。

总的来说，主讲人认为钢铁和铝关税将持续存在。 4月2日生效的更大幅度的关税仍然是需要关注的关键事件。 主讲人认为，选择谈判的国家可以最大限度地减少市场和经济下行风险。

结论：

主讲人最后提到了即将到来的FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）周，并承诺提供有关其结果的最新信息。

Okay, here's a summary of the provided "Markets Weekly" transcript, focusing on the key points and arguments presented:

Overview:

This "Markets Weekly" episode, recorded on March 15th, covers three main topics: recent market price action, key economic data (particularly inflation), and updates on the ongoing trade war. The speaker begins by referencing his previous market outlook from December 2023, highlighting the accuracy of his predictions for the S&P 500, gold prices, and 10-year Treasury yields.

Price Action:

The past week was described as volatile for equities, with significant swings but ultimately minimal week-over-week price changes. The speaker notes a positive surge on Friday, with the S&P 500 rising by 2%. He believes the market is finding support and stabilizing, but the direction heavily depends on trade war headlines. While predicting potential bounces in the short-term, the reduced volatility suggests less panic in the market.

Regarding the 10-year yield, it dipped to 4.2% before rebounding to 4.3%. The speaker reiterates his view that the market was initially underestimating the likelihood of Fed rate cuts, arguing that 4-6 cuts are more realistic than the previously priced-in one. Now, with the market pricing in about 3 cuts, he finds it more reasonable given geopolitical risks, tariff concerns, and softer economic data.

Gold experienced a surge to $3,000, the speaker is unsure of the specific catalyst but suggests possible drivers include monetary policy concerns, geopolitical uncertainty, and potential tariff-related demand. He also mentions that Central Banks could be diversifying, so he advises to watch gold closely.

Economic Data:

The discussion shifts to recent CPI and PPI data, with emphasis on inflation. The speaker notes that January's hot CPI print was likely a seasonal effect, supported by February's cooler CPI of 0.2% month-over-month. PPI was also cooler than expected. However, components feeding into the Fed's preferred PCE metric weren't as encouraging, with the Cleveland Fed's forecast suggesting a 2.6% year-over-year core PCE, slightly above the Fed's target and indicating stalled progress on inflation.

Inflation expectations were highlighted as "pretty crazy," with significant divergence based on political affiliation (Democrats expecting higher inflation than Republicans). While the Fed focuses on long-term inflation expectations, which remain relatively contained, the speaker acknowledges the public panic reflected in short-term expectations.

Consumer surveys reveal increased pessimism about the job market, particularly among higher-income, white-collar workers, potentially due to layoffs in big tech and public sector job cuts. Blue-collar workers have a more positive outlook. While jobless claims and NMP data haven't yet reflected significant job losses, the speaker suggests this may appear in coming months.

Trade War:

A last-minute deal averted a government shutdown, removing a potential risk and allowing quantitative tightening to continue longer.

President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, citing national security. The speaker notes limited opposition, even from Democrats aiming to regain support from manufacturing workers in the Rust Belt. The United Auto Workers union supports the tariffs. Canada is most impacted, while US steel and aluminum companies are benefiting.

In response, the EU imposed retaliatory tariffs on the US and Canada. Australia and Brazil chose negotiation over retaliation, similar to Mexican President Claudia Shinebaum's approach, which has been successful.

The speaker notes Canada's approach to escalating the trade war is a political move. With an election on the horizon, the Liberal Party has seen a boost in political prospects despite the damage to the Canadian economy, with Mark Carney hinting at canceling the F-35 purchase from the US.

Overall, the speaker believes steel and aluminum tariffs will persist. The larger tariffs on April 2nd remain a key event to watch. The speaker believes that countries choosing negotiation could minimize market and economic downsides.

Conclusion:

The speaker concludes by mentioning the upcoming FOMC week and promises to provide an update on its outcomes.