以下是将原文翻译成中文： KKR联席CEO乔·贝（Joe Bae）的这次访谈，为我们提供了宝贵的洞见，包括该公司在动荡的全球局势下的战略展望、雄心勃勃的增长计划，以及日益多元化的商业模式，并将其与伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）进行类比。 贝提到了当前围绕贸易关税的不确定性环境，指出这并不是一种新现象，而是长期投资者持续考虑的一个因素。 KKR一直积极主动地为其150多家私募股权投资组合公司缓解与供应链安全和韧性相关的风险，重点关注多重采购渠道。 对于新的投资，KKR战略性地瞄准了受关税风险影响较小的行业，例如医疗保健服务、家庭维修等国内服务，以及IT服务。 这种方法使他们能够在复杂的贸易政策中游刃有余，同时最大限度地减少潜在的负面影响。 贝承认关税带来的通胀压力，可能会减缓GDP增长并影响美联储的政策。 KKR已经预计到由于能源转型和数据投资等更广泛的趋势，通胀会更高。 然而，他强调了关税对不同市场的影响各不相同，以及美联储需要对其反应保持灵活，并承认滞胀是一个真实存在的风险。 从全球角度来看，KKR强调日本是一个特别有吸引力的投资目的地。 凭借积极的工资增长、温和的通货膨胀和不断上升的利率，日本为寻求摆脱通货紧缩环境的投资者提供了一个独特的机会。 此外，股东和公司治理改革正使日本市场更具吸引力。 关于中国，KKR承认存在地缘政治紧张局势，但强调其重点是服务于国内消费和服务的优质国内企业。 他们正在避开敏感行业。 这一策略旨在利用中国不断壮大的中产阶级对更高质量商品和服务的需求。 尽管承认中国经济增长放缓和房地产挑战，但贝认为当前市场中精心挑选的投资的估值倍数具有价值。 贝还谈到了美国例外论的概念，认为美国的优势在于经济的弹性、资本市场的实力、劳动生产率、技术和创新。 讨论随后转向KKR不断发展的商业模式，重点关注其战略控股业务。 参照伯克希尔·哈撒韦的模式，该业务板块涉及持有KKR计划长期持有的公司的大量股份，从而产生持续增长的现金流。 目前，该业务由18家公司组成，KKR计划将其现金流重新部署到类似业务中。 贝将Global Atlantic比作KKR自己的“Geico”，未来的基础设施控股可能成为他们的“BNSF”，而私募股权控股类似于他们的股票投资组合，从而将KKR与伯克希尔·哈撒韦进行了类比。 目标是通过防御性、以现金为导向的业务长期累积价值。 KKR预计该投资组合将在未来几年产生可观的税后股息，预计到2030年将达到11亿美元。 贝还谈到了散户投资者获得私募资产的日益增长的趋势。 过去，只有超高净值家庭和家族办公室才能获得私募资产。 KKR已为经认可的个人投资者推出了私募财富产品，提供半流动性选择。 该公司还与Capital Group合作，以共同基金的形式创建混合型产品，使大众富裕投资者更容易获得私募信贷。 他还谈到了401K计划中私募资产的可能性，并表示需要进行政策调整。

This interview with Joe Bae, Co-CEO of KKR, provides valuable insights into the firm's strategic outlook in a volatile global landscape, its ambitious growth plans, and its increasingly diversified business model, drawing parallels to Berkshire Hathaway. Bae addresses the current environment of uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, noting that it's not a new phenomenon but rather an ongoing consideration for long-term investors. KKR has been proactive in mitigating risks related to supply chain security and resilience for its 150+ private equity portfolio companies, focusing on multiple sourcing avenues. For new investments, KKR strategically targets sectors less exposed to tariff risk, such as healthcare services, domestic services like home maintenance, and IT services. This approach allows them to navigate the complexities of trade policies while minimizing potential negative impacts. Bae acknowledges the inflationary pressures of tariffs, potentially slowing GDP growth and impacting the Federal Reserve's policies. KKR already anticipates higher inflation due to broader trends like energy transition and data investment. However, he emphasizes the varying impact across markets and the Fed's need to remain nimble in its response, acknowledging that stagflation is a real risk. From a global perspective, KKR highlights Japan as a particularly attractive investment destination. With positive wage growth, modest inflation, and rising interest rates, Japan represents a unique opportunity for investors seeking to diversify away from deflationary environments. Furthermore, shareholder and corporate governance reforms are making the Japanese market even more appealing. Regarding China, KKR acknowledges geopolitical tensions but emphasizes its focus on high-quality domestic businesses catering to domestic consumption and services. They are avoiding sensitive sectors. This strategy aims to capitalize on the growing Chinese middle class's demand for higher-quality goods and services. While acknowledging the slower economic growth and real estate challenges in China, Bae sees value in the current market's multiples for well-chosen investments. Bae also touched on the concept of American exceptionalism, suggesting that the US strength lies in the resiliency of the economy, strength of capital markets, labor productivity, technology and innovation. The discussion then shifts to KKR's evolving business model, with a key focus on its strategic holdings business. Modeled after Berkshire Hathaway, this segment involves owning large stakes in companies that KKR intends to hold long-term, generating consistent, growing cash flow. Currently, this business consists of 18 companies and KKR intends to redeploy its cash flow into similar business. Bae drew a parallel between Berkshire Hathaway, highlighting Global Atlantic as KKR's own "Geico" and future infrastructure holdings potentially becoming their "BNSF," with private equity holdings resembling their stock portfolio. The goal is to compound value over time through defensive, cash-oriented businesses. KKR expects the portfolio to generate significant after-tax dividends in the coming years, projecting $1.1 billion by 2030. Bae also addresses the growing trend of retail investors accessing private assets. In the past, it was only ultra high-net-worth families and family offices that could access. KKR has introduced private wealth products for individual investors who are accredited investors, offering semi-liquid options. The firm is also collaborating with Capital Group to create hybrid products in a mutual fund format, making private credit more accessible to mass affluent investors. He touches on the possibility of private assets in 401K plans and that policy changes will be required.