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本周《市场周刊》讨论了潜在的市场见顶信号，重点关注过去一周的事件，以及3月4日和4月2日对于市场走向的关键意义。虽然主要指数仍接近历史高点，但演讲者观察到动能减弱，投资者中的看跌情绪正在增加。这种脱节源于，在主要指数的表面之下，许多投机性资产，如Palantir和比特币，已经经历了大幅下跌，即使没有大型指数下跌，也造成了焦虑。利用过去动能的杠杆ETF表现也不佳，加剧了负面情绪。

除了投机性市场外，更广泛的经济指标表明增长趋势正在放缓。PMI数据、情绪调查和亚特兰大GDP即时预测（最初显示令人震惊的下降）都指向这一放缓。后来解释说，GDP下降的主要原因是公司提前进口以应对关税，这夸大了进口数据并降低了表面上的GDP产出，因为GDP侧重于国内生产的商品和服务。预计这种提前进口效应将在随后的几个季度消除，但其他调查数据仍然支持增长放缓的说法。十年期国债收益率在达到4.8%后下降，进一步强调了这种情绪。

播客还讨论了政府支出削减的潜在影响，这是由于努力减少预算中的欺诈和浪费所致，这一举措可能导致财政紧缩。政府问责局估计，每年因欺诈损失5000亿美元。一个被称为“Doge”（很可能是埃隆·马斯克）的有趣人物的工作被重点提及，他正在裁减联邦雇员，这将在短期内影响失业率。然而，分析指出，直接的联邦雇员人数并不能完全反映政府支出的范围，因为许多机构严重依赖承包商和赠款。削减这些领域的支出将对经济增长产生比市场目前预期的更大的影响。虽然这些措施可能在短期内对增长产生负面影响，但被解雇的工人最终将在私营部门找到工作，这可能导致整体经济的重组。

市场面临的一个主要担忧是关税增加的可能性越来越大，尤其是随着3月4日和4月2日的临近。演讲者提到了特朗普总统之前提出的对加拿大和墨西哥进口商品征收关税的建议，这些关税已被暂停，但可能会重新实施。此外，4月2日是互惠关税的日期，届时美国将对其他国家对美国商品征收的关税实施对等关税。这可能会严重影响与印度等以高关税闻名的国家的贸易关系。

演讲者引用了彭博社的分析，表明如果对中国、加拿大和墨西哥实施这些关税，美国进口商品的有效关税率将大幅上升。避免对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税的条件尚不清楚，尽管特朗普总统公开考虑将加拿大并入美国。一个更具体的可能性是创建一个“北美堡垒”，即加拿大和墨西哥将与美国对中国商品征收相同的关税。

即使避免了对加拿大和墨西哥征收关税，对中国额外征收10%的关税似乎也很有可能，甚至可能超过特朗普第一次贸易战期间征收的关税。此外，从中国运来的商品800美元的最低限度例外不再有效，进一步增加了关税负担。

总之，增长放缓、潜在的政府支出削减以及迫在眉睫的大幅提高关税的威胁，尤其是在中国，都给市场带来了压力。演讲者强调密切关注3月4日和4月2日前后事态发展的重要性。虽然演讲者认为市场参与者不应该对关税增加的可能性感到惊讶，但他们预计如果引入新的关税，市场可能不会做出积极反应。

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This week's Markets Weekly discusses potential market topping signals, focusing on events of the past week and the looming significance of March 4th and April 2nd for market direction. While major indexes remain close to all-time highs, the speaker observes a loss of momentum and increasing bearishness among investors. This disconnect arises because, beneath the surface of the major indices, many speculative assets like Palantir and Bitcoin have experienced significant declines, creating anxiety even without a large index drop. Leveraged ETFs capitalizing on past momentum are also performing poorly, contributing to a negative sentiment.

Beyond the speculative market, broader economic indicators suggest a slowing growth trend. PMI numbers, sentiment surveys, and the Atlanta GDP now forecast (initially showing a shocking decline) all point to this slow down. It is later explained that much of the GDP decline is due to companies front-loading imports anticipating tariffs, which inflates import figures and reduces the apparent GDP output, since GDP focuses on goods and services produced domestically. This front-loading effect is expected to unwind in later quarters, but other survey data supports the slowing growth narrative regardless. The decline in the ten-year yield after reaching 4.8% further underscores this sentiment.

The podcast also discusses the potential impact of government spending cuts, driven by efforts to reduce fraud and waste in the budget, a push that could lead to fiscal restraint. Government Accountability Office estimates that 500 billion dollars are lost annually to fraud. The work of an interesting figure nicknamed Doge (likely Elon Musk) is highlighted, who is cutting federal employees, which will impact the unemployment rate in the short term. However, the analysis notes that direct federal employment figures don't fully reflect the scope of government spending, as many agencies rely heavily on contractors and grants. Cuts in these areas will have a more substantial effect on economic growth than the market currently anticipates. While these measures may negatively impact growth in the short term, the laid-off workers will eventually find employment in the private sector, which could lead to restructuring of the overall economy.

A major concern looming over the market is the increasing probability of tariffs, especially as March 4th and then April 2nd approach. The speaker references President Trump's previously suggested tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, which were suspended but could be re-imposed. Additionally, April 2nd marks the date for reciprocal tariffs, where the US will implement tariffs equivalent to those imposed on US goods by other countries. This could significantly impact trade relationships with countries like India, known for high tariffs.

The speaker cites Bloomberg analysis suggesting that if these tariffs are enacted on China, Canada, and Mexico, the effective tariff rate on US imports will drastically increase. The conditions for avoiding tariffs on Canada and Mexico are unclear, although President Trump has publicly considered incorporating Canada into the US. A more concrete possibility lies in creating a "Fortress North America," where Canada and Mexico would match US tariffs on Chinese goods.

Even if the tariffs on Canada and Mexico are avoided, an additional 10% tariff on China seems likely, potentially surpassing the tariffs imposed during Trump's first trade war. Furthermore, the $800 de minimis exception for goods shipped from China is no longer in effect, further increasing tariff burdens.

In conclusion, the combination of slowing growth, potential government spending cuts, and the imminent threat of significantly increased tariffs, particularly on China, are weighing on the markets. The speaker emphasizes the importance of closely watching developments around March 4th and April 2nd. While the speaker doesn't believe that market participants should be surprised by the potential for increased tariffs, they anticipate that the market may not react favorably if new tariffs are introduced.