这篇讲座探讨了20世纪90年代南非从种族隔离制度向民主和平过渡过程中，商业所扮演的角色。虽然商业并非促成这场转型的根源，但它极大地促成了其和平与民主的性质，从而避免了诸如内战或军事政变等潜在的灾难性后果。 讲座首先强调了转型的脆弱性，突出了阻碍非洲人国民大会（非国大）与政府之间谈判的诸多障碍和潜在的破坏者。时间线展示了该国在多大程度上接近大规模暴力事件，尤其是在1994年大选前夕。 然后，讲座侧重于商业发挥影响力的四个关键领域：启动谈判、促成交易、管理潜在破坏者以及建立公众对新秩序的支持。 **启动谈判：** 讲座探讨了为什么大型白人企业，尽管资产专用性（如金矿等资产无法移动）很高，使其容易受到后种族隔离政策的影响，但在20世纪70年代选择与非法的解放运动进行接触。“大棒”和“胡萝卜”的双重压力是原因。 “大棒”包括日益严重的劳工骚乱，这源于非法的黑人工会，而企业需要这些工会合法化才能进行工业和平谈判。他们支持黑人工会的合法化，尽管这成为了政治行动主义的磁铁，但允许了谈判的进行，同时也促进了关系发展。其次，制裁直到大通银行和花旗银行的金融制裁引发大规模资本外流和金融危机时才真正起作用。这场危机促使商业领袖与解放运动领导人建立联系，以鼓励投资，从而为未来的合作铺平了道路。 “胡萝卜”主要归功于共产主义的崩溃，这减轻了白人商业精英对后种族隔离时代的南非由社会主义主导的恐惧。他们开始在新南非看到自己的未来，这个南非更像巴西，而不是古巴。 **促成交易：** 南非经济的所有权高度集中，这使得企业能够集体行动。英美集团和其他主要公司组成了一个“K集团”，它可以有效地协调和震慑政府。这种战略地位使他们能够促进政府与非国大之间的沟通和信任建立，特别是通过秘密会议和私人关系。 **管理破坏者：** 咨询商业运动（CBM）源于企业与UDF（联合民主阵线）的接触，由于他们公开支持多数统治的民主，因此成为了一个值得信赖的经纪人。他们担任多方谈判论坛的秘书处。当基辛格认为非国大和Encarta（一个祖鲁族政治组织）之间不可能达成解决方案时，科尔曼努力通过获得非国大和政府的支持来满足Encarta的政治要求。商业在解决选举的后勤问题方面发挥了关键作用。 **建立公众支持：** 商业界积极与政府、宗教团体和其他组织合作，举办情景规划会议并开发经济模型，以积极地影响非国大朝着有利的方向发展。他们设立了一个选举基金，以帮助确保选举的自由和公正。 虽然商业通过避免内战帮助确保了民主过渡，但过渡过程也存在问题。 在这一结果的遗留问题中，诸如有限的、以单一政党为主导的民主（往往与腐败相关）以及根深蒂固的劳工运动，导致了大规模失业。此外，人们对持续存在的经济问题感到失望。 今天，南非仍然是世界上最不平等的国家之一。 虽然它避免了一场灾难，但它仍在与根深蒂固的不平等、贫困和种族差距问题作斗争，并且需要过渡到一个新时代才能看到改善。

This lecture explores the role of business in the peaceful transition from apartheid to democracy in South Africa during the 1990s. While business didn't cause the transition, it significantly contributed to its peaceful and democratic nature, preventing potentially disastrous outcomes like civil war or military coup. The lecture begins by emphasizing the fragility of the transition, highlighting the numerous obstacles and potential spoilers that threatened to derail the negotiations between the African National Congress (ANC) and the government. The timeline illustrates how close the country came to widespread violence, especially leading up to the 1994 elections. The lecture then focuses on four key areas where business exerted influence: initiating negotiations, brokering deals, managing potential spoilers, and building public support for the new dispensation. **Initiating Negotiations:** The lecture explores why big white businesses, despite the high asset specificity (inability to move assets like gold mines) making them vulnerable to post-apartheid policies, chose to engage with the illegal liberation movement in the 1970s. The pressure came from both "sticks" and "carrots." The "sticks" included increasing labor unrest through illegal black trade unions, which businesses needed legalized to negotiate industrial peace. They supported the legalization of black trade unions, which, despite becoming magnets for political activism, allowed for negotiation, but also stimulated relationship development. Secondly, sanctions didn't really make a difference until financial sanctions from Chase and Citibank triggered massive capital outflows and a financial crisis. This crisis led business leaders to cultivate relationships with liberation movement leaders to encourage investment, paving the way for future cooperation. The "carrots" were mainly due to the collapse of communism, which alleviated the white business elites' fears of a socialist-dominated post-apartheid South Africa. They began to see a future for themselves in a new South Africa that resembled Brazil rather than Cuba. **Brokering Deals:** The concentrated ownership of the South African economy allowed businesses to act collectively. Anglo-American and other major companies formed a "K group," which could effectively coordinate and intimidate the government. This strategic position enabled them to facilitate communication and trust-building between the government and the ANC, particularly through clandestine meetings and personal relationships. **Managing Spoilers:** The Consultative Business Movement (CBM), born from business engagements with the UDF, emerged as a credible broker because they openly favored majority rule democracy. They acted as the secretariat for multi-party negotiating forums. When Kissinger deemed a solution between the ANC and Encarta (an ethnic Zulu political organization) impossible, Coleman worked to meet Encarta’s political demands by getting buy-in from both the ANC and the government. Business played a critical role in resolving logistical problems for the elections. **Building Public Support:** Business actively participated with the government, religious groups, and other organizations to host scenario planning sessions and develop economic models to positively influence the ANC in a favorable direction. They created an election fund to help ensure the elections were free and fair. While business helped secure the democratic transition by averting the civil war, the transition had its problems. In the legacy of this outcome, issues such as a limited, single-party-dominated democracy that often correlates with corruption, as well as an entrenched labor movement, contribute to mass unemployment. Additionally, there is disillusionment with the ongoing economic issues. Today, South Africa remains one of the most unequal countries in the world. Although it avoided a catastrophe, it continues to struggle with deep-seated issues of inequality, poverty, and racial disparity, and it needs to transition to a new era in order to see improvements.