The lecture delves into the challenges faced by left-of-center political parties in a changing economic and political landscape, particularly focusing on the decline of unions and its implications for distributive politics. The speaker sets the stage by revisiting earlier discussions on absolute versus relative gains, emphasizing how relative gains are potent in politics, as people often make comparisons to local reference groups.
The core argument revolves around the declining effectiveness of unions as institutions that reinforce solidarity among voters below the median income. The speaker presents data showing the consistent decline of union membership in both the US and the UK, as well as across much of Europe. This decline diminishes the leverage of unions in protecting their members and limits the spillover benefits to a wider segment of the population.
The lecture explores how the weakened union presence affects the political strategies of left-of-center parties. In the UK, the speaker notes how a powerful union movement in the Labour Party pulled it away from the median voter, leading to political turmoil. The speaker contrast this with the German model, unions negotiate bargained agreements, extending benefits even to non-unionized workers. This fosters broader solidarity.
The speaker introduces the concept of "triangulation," a political strategy where parties move to the center to capture support from the opposing side. The lecturer cites Bill Clinton's actions as an example of this strategy, designed to appeal to the middle ground. A key assumption of triangulation is that voters on the party's left have no other place to go, even if they are not happy with the rightward shift.
The lecture then considers the implications for multi-party systems, often considered more representative due to the presence of diverse parties. The speaker challenges the conventional wisdom that multi-party systems are inherently more redistributive, given the widespread decline of unions. Data is presented showing a rise in the number of parties in many OECD countries, particularly on the left. This fragmentation makes it harder for left-of-center parties to sustain solidaristic ideologies, as they are forced to compete for voters and form complex coalitions. The decline in industrial jobs is mentioned, and the decline of power of unions is correlated.
The consequences of union decline also lead to the protection of shrinking groups of workers, while failing to address employment for the long term. This may be happening in Germany, where the "hearts reforms" are shifting unemployment from the union to the long-term unemployment. The lecturer argues that these fragmentation could lead to outcomes where left governments are in power, but unemployment actually goes up.
In sum, the lecture argues that the decline of unions has profound implications for both two-party and multi-party systems. In two-party systems, it encourages triangulation and a move towards the center. In multi-party systems, it leads to fragmentation, making it harder to form stable governments. The lecture concludes by noting that the proliferation of far-right parties is a response to these shifts, creating a more volatile and unpredictable political landscape.