以下是对内容的中文翻译： 这段文字稿分析了苏联的解体，重点关注其发生的原因以及相对和平的性质。它考察了俄罗斯“强盗资本主义”的兴起，以及随后的权力从叶利钦向普京的过渡。最后，它深入研究了俄罗斯根深蒂固的腐败及其成因。 讲者首先描述了1991年8月针对米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫的政变，为故事设定背景，突出了莫斯科街头的坦克以及鲍里斯·叶利钦作为抵抗人物的崛起。戈尔巴乔夫于1985年上台，推行了诸如“改革”（经济重组）和“公开性”（言论自由）等改革，旨在使苏联现代化。然而，他面临来自强硬派和激进改革者的反对。由于叶利钦的领导以及军队决定支持他，政变最终失败。 未遂政变的结束标志着权力从戈尔巴乔夫向叶利钦（俄罗斯民选总统，最终辞职）的真正转移。尽管1991年3月的一次全民公投支持苏联的延续，但势头转向了独立。爱沙尼亚和拉脱维亚在政变期间宣布独立，随后是乌克兰。叶利钦与乌克兰总统达成协议，宣布苏联不复存在。到1991年12月，苏联正式解体，并被独联体（一组独立国家）取代。 讲座随后转向苏联解体的原因，列举了诸如不可持续的计划经济、军备竞赛以及阿富汗的泥潭战争等因素。20世纪40年代制定的遏制政策给已经疲弱的苏联体系带来了财政压力。但是，最重要的是，讲者强调了解体过程的显著和平性，将其归因于精英和公民忠诚度的下降。 引入阿尔伯特·赫希曼的“退出、呼吁和忠诚”框架来理解这种现象。它认为，当人们觉得某件事正在衰落时，他们可以通过离开、抱怨或修复来做出反应。在苏联，精英们已经失去了对共产主义意识形态以及改变苏联能力的信心。创造个人机会的可能，特别是随着新俄罗斯的成立，降低了退出的成本。 讨论随后转移到寡头的崛起，他们从围绕解体的混乱和腐败中获利。他们的财富来自各种来源，包括挪用国家资金、掠夺资产以及投机卢布。鲍里斯·叶利钦在1996年总统竞选连任时也得到了寡头的帮助，他们购买了破产公司的资产。这些行为表明了当时国家的虚弱和腐败。一个虚弱的国家的特征是无法执行规则、难以筹集收入以及任意或不可预测地使用权力。 讲者随后谈到了从叶利钦到普京的过渡，强调了普京最初对加强国家的关注。普京改革了税收制度，增加了税收收入，并打击了一些更恶劣的寡头，例如米哈伊尔·霍多尔科夫斯基，以重新获得国家控制权。这也标志着与叶利钦政权在哲学上的明显变化。 最后，讨论转向俄罗斯持续存在的腐败。“路径依赖”、1990年代的资产掠夺以及“资源诅咒”（特别是石油）被认为是重要的促成因素。对石油收入的依赖创造了一个高度重视进入石油部门的系统，导致腐败和寻租。此外，对石油的依赖也成为地缘政治力量的来源，使得政府不愿实现经济多样化，尽管它容易受到油价波动的影响。比尔·布劳德的视频片段突出了至今仍在持续的一些腐败现象。

This transcript analyzes the collapse of the Soviet Union, focusing on why it occurred and why it was relatively peaceful. It examines the rise of "gangster capitalism" in Russia and the subsequent transition of power from Boris Yeltsin to Vladimir Putin. Finally, it delves into the deeply ingrained corruption within Russia and the factors contributing to it. The lecturer starts by setting the stage with a description of the August 1991 coup against Mikhail Gorbachev, highlighting the presence of tanks in Moscow and the rise of Boris Yeltsin as a figure of resistance. Gorbachev, who came to power in 1985, introduced reforms like Perestroika (restructuring of the economy) and Glasnost (free speech), aiming to modernize the Soviet Union. However, he faced opposition from both hardliners and radical reformers. The coup attempt ultimately failed due to Yeltsin's leadership and the military's decision to support him. The end of the attempted coup marked the real power shift from Gorbachev to Yeltsin, the democratically elected president of Russia, who ultimately resigned. Despite a referendum in March of 1991 supporting the continuation of the Soviet Union, the momentum shifted towards independence. Estonia and Latvia declared independence during the coup, followed by Ukraine. Yeltsin, in agreement with the Ukrainian president, declared that the Soviet Union no longer existed. By December 1991, the Soviet Union was officially dissolved, and replaced by the CIS, a group of independent states. The lecture then turns to the question of why the Soviet Union collapsed, citing factors such as the unsustainable command economy, the arms race, and the quagmire war in Afghanistan. Containment, a policy formulated in the 1940s, put fiscal pressure on the already weakened Soviet System. But, most importantly, the lecturer emphasizes the remarkable peacefulness of the collapse, attributing it to a decline in loyalty among elites and citizens. The framework of Albert Hirschman's "Exit, Voice, and Loyalty" is introduced to understand this phenomenon. It argues that when people feel that something is in decline, they can react by either leaving, complaining, or fixing it. In the Soviet Union, the elites had lost faith in the communist ideology and the ability to change the Soviet Union. The opportunity to create an opportunity for themselves, especially with the formation of the new Russia, reduced the cost of exiting. The discussion then shifts to the rise of the oligarchs, who profited from the chaos and corruption surrounding the collapse. Their wealth came from various sources, including embezzled state funds, looted assets, and speculation against the ruble. Boris Yeltsin's 1996 re-election campaign was also aided by the oligarchs, who bought the assets of bankrupt firms. These actions indicate the weakness and corruptibility of the state during this time. A weak state is characterized by an inability to enforce rules, difficulty raising revenue, and arbitrary or unpredictable use of power. The lecturer then addresses the transition from Yeltsin to Putin, emphasizing Putin's initial focus on strengthening the state. Putin reformed the tax system, increased revenue collection, and cracked down on some of the more egregious oligarchs, like Mikhail Khodorkovsky, to regain state control. This also marked a clear change in philosophy from the Yeltsin regime. Finally, the discussion turns to Russia's persistent corruption. Path dependence, the looting of assets in the 1990s, and the "resource curse" (specifically oil) are identified as significant contributing factors. The dependence on oil revenue creates a system where access to the oil sector is highly valued, leading to corruption and rent-seeking. Furthermore, the reliance on oil also becomes a source of geopolitical power, making diversification of the economy less desirable for the government, despite its vulnerability to oil price fluctuations. The video clip of Bill Browder highlights some of the corruption that continues to this day.