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Electrified - Ray Dalio Did Not Buy TSLA / Meta Challenging Tesla / Tesla Works on Robotaxi App ⚡️

发布时间:2025-02-15 00:51:23   原节目
以下是翻译后的中文: Electrified 的 Dylan Loomis 讨论了潜在的电动汽车税收抵免废除及其对行业的影响,重点是 Jim Farley 关于福特电池厂因《通货膨胀削减法案》(IRA) 条款可能被取消而导致失业的警告。Farley 担心取消这些补贴可能会迫使福特缩减其在俄亥俄州、密歇根州、肯塔基州和田纳西州的业务,从而危及数千个制造业工作岗位。福特预计今年其 Model E 系列产品将亏损 55 亿美元,这使得税收抵免计划的任何变动都意义重大。 讨论转向 45x 生产税收抵免,该抵免为电池芯制造商(每千瓦时 35 美元)和模组组装商(每千瓦时 10 美元)提供大量补贴。特斯拉目前正受益于这项抵免,如果他们扩大 4680 计划,每年可能获得数十亿美元。 接下来,Loomis 报告称,中国市场对新款 Model Y 的需求强劲,新订单的等待时间约为三个月。但他警告说,由于初始启动阶段的限制,不应根据当前的生产率来推断总积压订单量。在英国,由于即将到来的税收变化将影响新款 Model Y 的交付,特斯拉已经开始取消旧款 Model Y 的订单。 一项值得关注的更新揭示了特斯拉应用程序中首次发现 Robotaxi 自动驾驶出租车代码,包括一个用户可以对车辆清洁度进行评分并上传照片的反馈界面。Loomis 表示他希望特斯拉举办一次活动,详细介绍 Robotaxi 应用程序、车辆和推出计划。 Loomis 随后批评了 Unitary Robotaxi 公司推出的一款名为 G1 的人形机器人,告诫观众不要被营销视频误导。他强调公司需要拥有制造人才、资源以及培训机器人执行有用任务的计划。他将此与波士顿动力公司的 Atlas 进行了对比,强调了实际应用的重要性,而非仅仅是演示。 对话转到 Meta 公司对人形机器人的巨额投资,该公司在其 Reality Labs 部门内建立了一个新部门,由前 Cruise 首席执行官 Mark Whitten 领导。重点将放在用于物理任务的人工智能驱动的机器人上,最初的目标是家务劳动,同时旨在为其他公司创建硬件、传感器和软件。Meta 公司的 Reality Labs 部门在上个季度亏损了约 50 亿美元。 Loomis 随后回到了之前关于 DeepSeek 及其自主能力的一点。他强调研究人员发现,推动聊天机器人开发的语言相关的 AI 突破不一定有助于理解物理世界。讨论指出,“真实世界 AI”的必要性,但该技术仍然面临许多限制。 尽管 Meta 进入了机器人领域,Loomis 断言,由于埃隆·马斯克的领导,特斯拉仍然保持着多年的优势。 该片段以 Delete Me 的宣传广告结束,Delete Me 是一种在线服务,可从数据代理网站上删除个人信息,以防止诈骗。 Loomis 接着讨论了围绕 FSD 13.2.7 的积极反馈,一位用户将其描述为“非常棒”。他还确认,矩阵式前大灯功能即将登陆美国特斯拉,首先是新款 Model Y。 他澄清说,雷·达里奥(Ray Dalio)虽然仍在董事会任职,但他本人并没有购买特斯拉股票。他创立的对冲基金 Bridgewater Associates 的确在特斯拉建立了 6200 万美元的头寸,但对于如此规模的基金来说,这只代表着相对较小的股份(0.28%)。 他引用了达里奥关于人工智能在投资决策中的作用以及人工智能应用提供显著超额回报的潜力。他指出了埃隆·马斯克对这一消息的反应的重要性,表明这位特斯拉 CEO 掌握着该公司未来的内部信息。 对话触及了 xAI 寻求 100 亿美元的融资,该公司估值约为 750 亿美元,高于之前的估值 500 亿美元。 最后,特斯拉的软件更新 2025.2.6 正在推出用于第一排座舱感应系统的车内雷达功能,包括动态安全气囊展开,该功能将在新款 Model Y 和未来的 Cybertruck 上启用。现有车型被排除在外,尽管特斯拉已经开始联系以前拥有雷达的客户,为他们提供免费升级。 他提到,市场将在总统日休市,因此周一可能不会有视频,并结束了视频。

Dylan Loomis of Electrified discusses the potential repeal of EV tax credits and its impact on the industry, focusing on Jim Farley's warning about job losses at Ford's battery plants due to the potential rollback of IRA provisions. Farley fears that repealing these subsidies could force Ford to scale back its operations in Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, and Tennessee, jeopardizing thousands of manufacturing jobs. Ford anticipates a $5.5 billion loss on its Model E line this year, making changes to the tax credit program highly significant. The discussion shifts to the 45x production tax credit, which provides substantial subsidies to battery cell manufacturers ($35 per kWh) and module assemblers ($10 per kWh). Tesla is currently benefiting from this credit, potentially receiving billions annually if they scale their 4680 program. Moving on, Loomis reports strong demand for the new Model Y in China, with a waiting period of approximately three months for new orders. However, he cautions against extrapolating total backlog numbers based on current production rates due to limitations in the initial ramp-up. In the UK, Tesla has begun canceling legacy Model Y orders due to upcoming tax changes that will affect deliveries of the new model. A notable update reveals the discovery of the first lines of Robotaxi code within the Tesla app, including a feedback screen for users to rate the vehicle's cleanliness and upload photos. Loomis expresses his wish for a Tesla event detailing the Robotaxi app, vehicle, and rollout plans. Loomis then critiques a humanoid robot called G1 from Unitary Robotaxi, cautioning viewers not to be misled by marketing videos. He emphasizes the need for companies to possess manufacturing talent, resources, and a plan for training robots to perform useful tasks. He contrasts this with Boston Dynamics' Atlas, highlighting the importance of practical application over mere demonstrations. The conversation segues into Meta's significant investment in humanoid robots, establishing a new division within its Reality Labs unit led by former Cruise CEO Mark Whitten. The focus will be on AI-powered robots for physical tasks, initially targeting household chores while aiming to create hardware, sensors, and software for other companies to use. Meta's Reality Labs unit lost approximately $5 billion in the previous quarter. Loomis then circles back to a prior point regarding DeepSeek and its autonomous capabilities. He highlights researchers have found that language related AI breakthroughs driving chat bot development have not necessarily helped with understanding of the physical world. The discussion points to the necessity of "real world AI" which is still facing many limitations. Despite Meta's entry into the robotics space, Loomis asserts that Tesla maintains a multi-year advantage due to Elon Musk's leadership. The segment concludes with a promotional spot for Delete Me, an online service that removes personal information from data broker sites to protect against scams. Loomis then discusses the positive feedback surrounding FSD 13.2.7, with one user describing it as "bleep amazing." He also confirms that the matrix headlight functionality is coming to US Teslas, starting with the new Model Y. He clarifies that Ray Dalio, though still on the board, did not personally buy the Tesla stock. Bridgewater Associates, the hedge fund he founded, did initiate a $62 million position in Tesla, but this represents a relatively small stake (0.28%) for a fund of that size. He quotes Dalio on the role of AI in investment decision-making and the potential for AI applications to offer significant alpha. He points out the significance of Elon Musk's response to the news, indicating that the Tesla CEO has insider information on the company's future. The conversation touches on xAI reaching out for investors for $10 billion in funding valuing the company around $75 billion up from the previous valuation of around $50 billion. Finally, Tesla's software update 2025.2.6 is rolling out in-cabin radar features for the first row cabin sensing system including dynamic airbag deployment which will be enabled on the new model Y's and future cyber trucks. The existing models are left out although Tesla has started reaching out to customers who previously had the radar to give them a free upgrade. He mentions that markets will be closed for president's day so there will likely be no video on Monday and closes the video.