Dilamumus, the host of Electrified, dives into a multifaceted analysis of Tesla, highlighting factors impacting its stock performance and future prospects. The initial focus is on Wall Street's downward revisions of Tesla's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The non-GAAP EPS projection for 2025 has decreased to $2.93 from over $3 a month ago, and the 2026 forecast is down to $3.90 from above $4 in recent months. This trend reveals a significant decline in expectations, as the 2025 EPS forecast was previously over $8 just two years prior, representing a drop of over 65%. Dilamumus emphasizes that until these revisions reverse, sustaining a Tesla stock rally will be challenging without fundamental support.
The report also touches upon Tesla's Q1 delivery figures, which are expected to fall below the Wall Street consensus of around 430,000 vehicles, further impacting the stock. While Q1 is traditionally weak due to the Model Y changeover at four factories, a clearer picture of Tesla's demand is anticipated in the second half of the year, particularly by Q3 when production normalizes.
A new factor to consider is Elon Musk's potential bid for OpenAI, valued at nearly $100 billion. If this deal were to materialize, Musk may need to sell Tesla stock to finance it, potentially diluting his voting control, which he aims to increase to 25%. This introduces uncertainty, compounded by the ongoing appeal regarding Musk's 2018 compensation plan.
The conversation shifts to BYD's advancements in autonomous driving technology. BYD is rolling out its "God's Eye" advanced driver-assistance system across most of its lineup at no extra cost for cars priced above $14,000. This aligns with the democratization of consumer car autonomy, where Tesla is also striving to achieve. However, the "God's Eye" system has three tiers, only the top tier is equipped with three LIDAR sensors for BYD's luxury brand, Yang Wang. The mid-tier uses one LIDAR sensor, while the entry-level suite relies on a camera-based vision system, similar to Tesla's approach, using 12 cameras, 5 radars, and 12 ultrasonic sensors. The chairman of BYD stated that the entry-level suite would enable autonomous operation on fixed routes for daily commuters in major Chinese cities by the end of the year, potentially involving geo-fencing.
Dilamumus emphasizes the importance of analyzing real-world performance to assess the capabilities of the "God's Eye" system. Given China's strong push for autonomy and potential subsidies for domestic EV companies, Tesla's cost advantage in China might diminish. BYD's "God's Eye" system is expected to be Level 2 or Level 2 plus, requiring driver supervision.
Insider selling of Tesla stock in recent weeks is also mentioned as a factor contributing to the headwinds. These headwinds have led to a 33% drawdown from the recent all-time high. Dilamumus notes that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Tesla stock has only dipped below 30 twice in the past year, once earlier this year and again now, potentially indicating a buying opportunity for long-term investors.
Political factors are also at play. The mayor of Toronto is moving to ban Tesla from a licensing fee grant program for taxi drivers buying EVs, citing Tesla's popularity. Additionally, there are calls for 100% tariffs on Tesla in Canada, along with potential restrictions on critical mineral supply from Canada to the US. Rivian has also increased its vehicle prices in Canada due to exchange rate changes.
Tesla China's weekly numbers show a decline, with domestic figures and exports also experiencing year-over-year decreases, due to the changing of the model Y. Despite these fluctuations, Dilamumus highlights the underlying steadiness within Tesla, emphasizing the importance of focusing on essential aspects.
The piece also features a promotion for AG1, the video's sponsor. It briefly addresses concerns about lead levels in AG1, assuring viewers that the product undergoes rigorous testing and adheres to safety guidelines.
Tesla Energy's progress is also featured, with the first Megapack rolling off the production line at its Shanghai Gigafactory and the welding automation rate reaching over 90%. Additionally, Tesla has signed a contract for a significant battery storage project in Puerto Rico, deploying 1.7 gigawatt-hours of Megapacks, reaffirming Tesla's competitive edge in the energy market. Tesla's FSD has been launched in Mexico, enabling a continuous FSD-driven route from southern Mexico to northern Canada. The piece concludes by discussing the new Model Y with Franz Lars and Jay Leno, confirming future variants and new features. Updates on Tesla Supercharger costs and development of V4 stalls are also provided.
Finally, it references a report of a CyberTruck crash. The analysis ends with Lucid's strategy shift, Tesla's efforts to enable direct sales in Wisconsin, and a production milestone for Tesla Powerwalls, showing Tesla stock's closing price and volume traded.