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The fund experienced a very strong year, achieving a return of 13%, which translated to the largest absolute increase in value on record. Inflows, while not as high as in the previous two years, still reached over 400 billion crores, the third highest inflow ever seen into the fund. This influx, combined with positive returns and changes in currency value, resulted in an overall increase in the fund's market value of almost 4,000 billion crores, the biggest ever jump. Despite the remarkable growth, the presenters cautioned that this level of performance is unsustainable and highlighted the availability of stress tests on their website, projecting potential significant declines in value under various scenarios.
A significant portion of the fund's returns came from actual cash returns, including dividends from equity investments, coupons from bonds, and rents from real estate, totaling almost 400 billion crores. However, while the absolute return was impressive, the relative return fell short, underperforming the reference index by 45 basis points, marking the third worst year in percentage terms. This underperformance was attributed to a combination of factors, including real estate holdings (where value remained relatively flat compared to stock market gains) and an underweight allocation in equities, specifically in the largest US technology companies. Despite recent relative underperformance, the fund's excess returns since inception remain at 25 basis points per year.
The fund's investments are diversified across four main asset classes: equities, fixed income, real estate, and infrastructure for renewable energy. Equities significantly outperformed the other asset classes with an 18% return, which was the primary driver behind the fund's overall success.
A deep dive into the equities portfolio revealed strong performance in the US market compared to European markets, a trend that has been observed over the past decade. This difference was attributed to the sector composition of the different regions, with technology, particularly AI-related stocks, driving significant gains. NVIDIA was highlighted as the biggest single gainer. The presentation pointed out the concentration risk growing due to the size of top holding technology companies. Their investment in the biggest technology firms exceeded their combined investments in major European economies and India. The number of listed companies has decreased while the number of privately owned companies has greatly expanded.
A portfolio manager highlighted that AI has been the main driver of tech performance, with significant dispersion in returns. He noted extraordinary earnings growth for NVIDIA due to high AI chip demand. AI also boosted earnings for mega-cap tech companies like Meta and Google, driving up their advertising revenue. He cautioned that the continued success of these companies will depend on their ability to innovate and create new products and services that customers are willing to pay for. He highlighted AI in the physical world. An example being robotaxis in San Francisco and LA but could be rolled out far more widely and thus represent a huge opportunity for companies including Tesla, Google and Amazon.
External managers, who oversee roughly 5% of the fund's assets, continued to generate excess returns. Their local expertise, deep company analysis, and on-the-ground research capabilities were credited for their success. India was highlighted as a market where local managers have excelled, focusing on larger quality companies and demonstrating resilience despite various economic and political challenges.
Fixed income investments generated a 1% return, with a running yield of 4%. The US Treasury 10-year rate was volatile. Increased interest rates impacted the return. The speaker discussed inflation and government spending contributing to the 10 year treasury yields remaining higher in the end of the year.
The unlisted real estate holdings had a slightly negative return, while listed real estate performed well. The head of US investments in real estate noted that 2024 marked a turning point, with signs of stabilization after two challenging years. While the work-from-home trend continues to impact office buildings, the best buildings in prime locations are performing better. Logistics properties remain strong. The fund is cautiously reinvesting in real estate, focusing on high-quality properties at lower prices, including increased ownership in office buildings in Boston, San Francisco, and Washington D.C.
Renewable infrastructure investments reported a negative 10% return. The negative developments are caused by rising interest rate environment, industry failing to meet already high expectations, and stronger focus from customers on security of baseload supply. The presenters noted that this decline is primarily due to the methodology used for valuation.
The presentation concluded by reiterating key points, including the 13% return, underperformance against the broader market, and the fund value at the end of the year. The presenters highlighted their commitment to transparency, announcing the release of their holdings list and an update on their three-year strategy. The fund value stood at almost 20,000 billion at the year. They also promoted an upcoming event focused on identifying the characteristics of great companies.