以下是 Nabil Heid 在 20 VC 播客上与 Harry Stebbings 的对话的翻译： Spark Capital 的普通合伙人 Nabil Heid 与 Harry Stebbings 在 20 VC 播客中讨论了在人工智能快速发展的情况下，风险投资领域必要的思维转变。Nabil 对传统 SaaS 投资策略和基于电子表格的方法将在这个新环境中变得过时表示担忧，他强调风险投资家需要适应并拥抱一种更具工匠精神、"解谜式"的方法，而不是依赖于已建立的 "谜题"。 Nabil 认为，当前的风险投资行业深受初级普通合伙人 (GP)、负责人 (Principal) 和助理 (Associate) 的影响，他们优先考虑短期估值提升以获得晋升，而不是长期价值创造。他认为这激励了模式匹配和追随行业趋势，而不是识别独特的见解并支持真正具有创新精神的创始人。他批评了 "包装行业" 的心态，在这种心态下，初创公司被包装并传递给后期投资者，最终阻碍了真正的创新。 为了重塑人工智能时代的风险投资公司，Nabil 建议风险投资家像创始人一样思考，适应小团队进行主观押注，并深入了解创始人当前的需求。他认为，创始人现在需要有经验和好奇心的智囊团，而不是游戏手册和简单的套利策略。他鼓励风险投资家积极参与他们投资的产品，并与创始人建立真正的联系。 Nabil 反驳了收入是衡量人工智能质量的唯一标准的观点，强调了快速增长之后可能出现的同样快速的衰退。他强调在快速变化的环境中识别竞争优势和可持续价值的重要性。他承认，尽管有些人认为风险投资已经成为一个低利润、商品化的行业，但当前的市场通过专注于独特的见解和长期价值提供了差异化的机会。 谈话深入探讨了建立团队和维持合伙企业内部一致性的困难，特别是在政治环境中。Nabil 强调了培养相互尊重的精神和专注于寻找真相，而不是参与内部政治斗争的重要性。 Nabil 分享说，他在 COVID-19 大流行期间最怀疑自己作为投资者的能力，当时行业转向以 Zoom 为中心的互动和模式匹配投资。他强调了面对面互动和与创始人建立真正联系的重要性。 在讨论 "服务" 的概念时，Nabil 挑战了最佳创始人不需要风险投资家帮助的观点。他强调了积极参与、情感投入的风险投资家的价值，他们超越了提供资本，并在创始人的旅程中积极支持他们。 Nabil 概述了三类人工智能初创公司：适应 (Adaptation)、进化 (Evolution) 和革命 (Revolution)。适应包括为人工智能复制现有概念，而进化包括创建新的工作流程和行为。革命代表了由人工智能驱动的全新平台。他认为，最有希望的机会在于革命和进化，而不是适应。 谈话转移到可持续价值在人工智能中如何积累的问题。虽然许多人看好基础模型，但 Nabil 认为，持续创新的能力、品味、执行速度以及与客户的直接关系更为重要。他还强调，数据资源实际上比模型本身更重要。他强调了拥有客户界面并根据用户洞察进行迭代的潜在价值。他认为，在这个时代，重点应该放在专家的智慧上，而不是大众的智慧上。他还认为，重点也应该放在当前模型难以处理的领域，因为这可以提供更长的发展空间和进一步迭代创新的潜力。 Nabil 对美国的未来表示乐观，但也承认欧洲面临的挑战。他认为，创始人应该选择他们最有机会成功的地方，而目前是旧金山。他强调了人才获取和人工智能创新强大生态系统的重要性。

Nabil Heid, General Partner at Spark Capital, joins Harry Stebbings on the 20 VC podcast to discuss the necessary mindset shift in venture investing amidst the rapid advancements in AI. Nabil expresses concern that traditional SaaS investing strategies and spreadsheet-driven approaches will become obsolete in this new landscape, emphasizing the need for VCs to adapt and embrace a more artisanal, "mystery-solving" approach rather than relying on established "puzzles." Nabil argues that the current VC industry is heavily influenced by junior GPs, principles, and associates prioritizing short-term markups for promotions over long-term value creation. He believes this incentivizes pattern matching and following industry trends rather than identifying unique insights and backing truly innovative founders. He criticizes the "packaging industry" mentality where startups are packaged and passed onto later-stage investors, ultimately hindering genuine innovation. To reshape firms for the AI era, Nabil advises VCs to think like founders, be comfortable with small teams making subjective bets, and deeply understand the current needs of founders. He believes founders now require sounding boards with experience and curiosity, rather than playbooks and simple arbitrage strategies. He encourages VCs to be actively engaged in the products they invest in and foster genuine connections with founders. Nabil rejects the notion that revenue is the sole heuristic for quality in AI, highlighting the potential for rapid growth followed by equally rapid decline. He emphasizes the importance of identifying competitive advantages and sustainable value in a rapidly changing landscape. He acknowledges that while some argue that venture has become a low-margin, commoditized industry, the current market offers opportunities for differentiation by focusing on unique insights and long-term value. The conversation delves into the difficulties of building a team and maintaining alignment within a partnership, particularly in a political environment. Nabil emphasizes the importance of fostering mutual respect and focusing on the search for truth rather than engaging in internal political battles. Nabil shares that he doubted himself most as an investor during the COVID-19 pandemic when the industry shifted towards Zoom-centric interactions and pattern-matching investments. He stresses the importance of in-person interactions and building genuine connections with founders. Discussing the concept of "service," Nabil challenges the notion that the best founders don't need help from VCs. He argues for the value of engaged, emotionally invested VCs who go beyond providing capital and actively support founders in their journey. Nabil outlines three categories of AI startups: adaptation, evolution, and revolution. Adaptation involves copying existing concepts for AI, while evolution involves creating new workflows and behaviors. Revolution represents entirely new platforms enabled by AI. He believes that the most promising opportunities lie in revolution and evolution rather than adaptation. The conversation shifts to where sustainable value accrues in AI. While many are bullish on foundation models, Nabil argues that the ability to continue innovating, taste, execution speed, and direct relationships with customers are more important. He also emphasized that data resources are actually more important than the models themselves. He highlights the potential value of owning the customer interface and iterating based on user insights. He believes that in this era, focus on the wisdom of the experts not the crowd. He further argues that a focus should also be on areas of high difficulty for the models currently because this allows a longer runway and potential for further iterations on innovation. Nabil expresses his optimism about the future of the US but acknowledges the challenges faced by Europe. He believes that founders should choose to be where they have the best chance of success, which is currently San Francisco. He highlights the importance of talent acquisition and the presence of a strong ecosystem for AI innovation.